Towards the Army Cuts announcements: some points in time

19 October 2010 - the SDSR is published. The Army gets a cut of 7000 men, from a force of roughly 102.000 regulars to 95.000 by 2015, with a 94.000 strong regular army envisioned for 2020.  

According to sources such as Jane's and RUSI, the MOD's advice had been to cut the Army back to 82.000 in order to balance the books, but the government rejected the call at this stage in time because the measure was seen as too politically white hot to present with Afghanistan ops still going on full force.

The cuts fall hard on the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force instead: in the very last few days of the planning process, it is decided that Tornado GR4 has to stay, Harrier goes, and STOVL is abandoned even for the future.

November 2010 - Brigadier Nick Eeles, Director Royal Artillery, announces to the force that:

It is inevitable that there will be changes to the Royal Artillery force structure. The SDSR made it clear that we will reduce the AS90 fleet to 95 guns (from 146) as the Army transitions towards a lighter force profile. In the future each of the five multi role brigades will be supported by a close support regiment equipped with a mix of Light Gun and AS90. No decisions on the future size of the TA have been made under SDSR and a six-month review will now be undertaken into the role and structure of the Reserves. It should be emphasised that the TA remain critical to success on current operations and will form a key element of Gunner structures to deliver integrated support to future operations.

December 2010 - Royal Artillery announcements of the restructuring of its regiments and formation of the UAV force:

Thus the decision was taken earlier this year that 47 Regt RA should be re-subordinated to 1 Arty Bde as a UAS regiment, and 12 Regt RA should revert to being solely a CAD regiment [In recent years the regiment had deployed personnel to Afghanistan to operate UAS] (remaining within 1 (UK) Armd Div). Subsequent work, which is still subject to HQLF approval, will see 32 Regt RA (currently Tactical UAS) and 47 Regt RA (currently Mini UAS) restructured to become two integrated UAS regiments; each will contain integrated batteries comprising both Mini and Tactical UAS. The intent is to replicate, in barracks and in training, the integrated UAS structure deployed in Afghanistan. The resulting batteries are large and to create the five deployable batteries needed to meet harmony guidelines will require the combined resources of the eight equipment batteries currently within the two regiments. Three batteries will therefore be placed into suspended animation, although all the soldiers will be redistributed within the two regiments.

The five batteries are intended to line a number of Watchkeeper (Tactical UAS), Desert Hawk 3 (mini UAS) Detachments (possibly 12 in each battery, with each DH3 detachment numbering 5 men) and T-HAWK detachments (should be 3 per battery). The T-Hawk is a part of the Talisman route clearance system and was initially used by Royal Engineer personnel. It was however found more efficient to give control of all army UAS to a specialized force within the Royal Artillery.  

July 2011 - The results of the "3 months study" into the MOD books are announced: unsurprisingly, the deletion of Harrier, Type 22s and Nimrod have proven far from sufficient to bring the balance under control. Further manpower cuts are necessary, and they have to come from the Army: the revised plan adds 5000 more posts to be cut to the 7000 already announced, as the Army is now required to go down to 89 / 90.000 by 2015 and 82.000 by 2020.

The improvements to the structure and employment of reserves is announced as part of the move. By 2020 it is promised that army strength will be 120.000, inclusive of 30.000 trained reservists.

July 2011 - Royal Artillery restructuring continues with new changes announced:

In recognition of the high demand for fire support teams, the tactical groups from the disbanded close support regiment (40 Regt) will move to reinforce other close support regiments. In addition, transformational Army Structures work recognised that our specialist MLRS and STA regiments are under-resourced and should each grow or reorganise to five equipment batteries for each capability, thereby allowing for longer intervals between operational tours for the officers and soldiers involved. The outcome is five mirror image composite unmanned air systems batteries, three in 32 Regt RA and two in 47 Regt RA (the latter having lost its close air defence role) which meant that earlier this year three batteries, 42 (Alem Hamza) Bty RA, 43 Bty (Lloyd’s Company) RA and 25/170 (Imjin) Bty RA went into suspended animation.

After the demise of these three fine batteries, HQ Land recently granted permission to raise one new battery in 5 Regt RA equipped with weapon locating radars and sound ranging, and one new battery in 39 Regt RA equipped with MLRS. These are 93 (Le Cateau) Bty RA and 51 (Kabul 1842) Bty RA respectively and these batteries are currently being taken out of suspended animation.

August 2011 - The head of the Royal Artillery announces the details of changes in the regiment:

40 Regiment Royal Artillery is to disband, with hopes for a farewell parade in April 2012

6/36 (Arcot 1751) Battery, from 40 Regiment, is reassigned as Tac Group Battery to 4 Regiment Royal Artillery, by April 2012

38 (Seringapatam) Battery is assigned as Tac Group Battery to 19 Regiment RA. Transfered from 40 Regiment are also all the scottish symbols and hetos, as 19 Regiment now is the Scottish artillery regiment, incorporating both Lowlands and Highlands traditions.

By April 2012, 5 batteries of AS90 guns, one in each regiment, are re-roled to L118 Light Gun as number of AS90 howitzers is brought down to 95

By November 2012, 137 (Java) Tac Group Battery will resubordinate to 26 Regiment Royal Artillery  

19 September 2011 - First wave of Royal Signals restructuring announcements:

12 (National Communications) Signals brigade to disband after the Olympics are over, and with it the brigade's involvement in the security and support to the event. Work is underway to decide which of the commanded units of the brigade survive, how they are restructured, and how they are re-assigned to 1st and 11th Signal Brigades.  

7 Signals Regiment disbands by mid 2012, after completing its role as Campaign Signal Regiment to augment the Signals force in Afghanistan.

Early 2013 is to see 19 Light Brigade's HQ closed down, along with its Signal Squadron, 209 Sqn.

The Unified System Support Organisation, based in Blandford has been steadily growing in size and importance. It has a critical role providing expert Level 3 support to deployed information and communication services across Defence, and provides a combination of deployed and ‘reachback’ support. On 30th September 2011 it was re-titled 15th Signal Regiment (Information Support) and established fully as a Royal Signals Unit, albeit with very joint manning and roles.

In the last few months it emerged that 14 Regiment (Electronic Warfare) is being expanded 8% to an establishment of some 750 men.

Some change at the highest ranks as well, and warning from the Director Royal Signals that this is only the start.

November 2011 - First announcements for changes in the Royal Engineers

25 Air Support Regiment to disband by 31 March 2012 at the latest. Squadrons re-assigned to 39 Regiment

39 Regiment to move into RAF Kinloss during the summer of 2012

HQ 12 (Air Support) Engineer Group [44 men] moves into RAF Wittering in 2013

38 Regiment will disband together with 19 Light Brigade, which it supported.

Some considerations and numbers and guesses:

All of the support components of 19 Light Brigade are going:

40 Royal Artillery Regiment

209 Squadron Royal Signals

38 Royal Engineers Regiment

19 Combat Service Support Battalion

How many more formations will go, is very hard to say.

Arguably, in almost all trades there is no more room for cuts if 5 brigades are to be maintained, and fully kitted. The Royal Artillery is already restructuring on 5 Fires Regiments, so there really is no room for further cuts.

But as the Telegraph suggests that most of the AS90 howitzers will be mothballed (at least 51 have been, post SDSR, and of those remaining many will be in Controlled Humidity Storage most of the time under Whole Fleet Management) or used by reserves, my guess is that one of two AS90 batteries planned in each brigade artillery regiment will be assigned to TA personnel. It would be a first, since currently the TA does not work with the AS90.

I sincerely hope the cut is something of this kind: no regular AS90 batteries would, in my pessimistic/realistic view make it very hard to think about sending AS90 in battle again. With all my good will and with all the confidence i can muster, i still have doubts about how much the TA will effectively be made capable to deploy on the field in significant, formed units. I'd very much avoid putting whole capabilities and forces into reserve, personally.

What else could be cut?

Well, the additional batteries of 39 Regiment and perhaps even 5 Regiment. With the excuse of "contingency ops" opposed to enduring operations, the hard gained expansions in strength just enacted might be cancelled again, and leave both regiments again overstretched the next time they are called in action.

It wouldn't surprise me. But i hope it can be avoided.

I don't even want to think about cutting the UAS batteries, even though we could get a bitter surprise or two in 2015, if Desert Hawk 3 and/or T-Hawk were not brought into core budget despite their usefulness.

An area where there is possibly some maneuver space for cuts is 12 Regiment and 16 regiment, the air defence force.

I judge it feasible to merge the two regiments, forming a single air defence formation on 5 Batteries, each with a Rapier troop for local area defence and the second troop would have Starstreak for Low Level Air Defence - very short range.

The Royal Engineers might be in even worse difficulty, if the Telegraph is to be believed. The Telegraph talks of a 30% cut, down to an establishment of 5500. In early 2011, however, the strength of the Engineers (Regular Reserve included, however) was 9660, however, so the figures do not quite add up.

The Engineers are already shelving a couple of regiments (even though most of 25 Regt manpower just moves under another RHQ) and making other adjustements, but cutting formations will be very complex, unless not all of the brigades are granted an engineer complement.

And i hope this is not the case because it does not make sense.

A current Royal Engineers regiment on 3 Armoured Squadrons has an establishment of some 644 (REME personnel and other trades from other Army branches included, i believe), all-ranks, all-trades. And there already are only 5, exactly the number that is needed.

With a smaller deployable Army there might be scope to downsize all five regiments to a degree, perhaps even cut them down to 2 squadrons each, instead of 3, but will it be enough?

The engineer regiment of 16 Air Assault brigade counts 543 posts, 375 of which are for parachute trained personnel. Some trimming is likely to be achievable, and almost certainly will be inevitable.

24 Commando Royal Engineers Regiment likely will never see its second field squadron stand up, and as it is it already is the smallest of regiments in the Corps. There really is no room to touch this.

28 Engineer regiment, one of the two General Support Regiments, has an establishment of 850 [probably includes the TA personnel of 412 (V) Troop as well, though, and possibly the 110-strong REME LAD).

36 General Support Regiment has 5 squadrons as of now (2 are Gurkha) and has assumed the role of High Assurrance Search regiment to aid in the battle against IEDs in Afghanistan. I don't know what its head count is, but is likely to be even higher than 28 Regt's.

It is arguable that, by 2014, with Afghanistan over and the Army becoming much smaller, one single General Support Regiment could do, assigned to the sole deployable division HQ. In my view said regiment should be about preserving specialized capabilities available on demand, so a possible structure could be:

·         1 Amphibious Squadron (with M3 rigs and other kit)

·         at least 1 Route Clearance Squadron (preserving the expensive and effective Talisman equipment set and related skills for meeting future needs)

·         1 Search squadron, keeping alive the experience and skills gained with years of high risk, high cost operations

·         and another Squadron, more general in nature, ready for tasking where and when necessary

Again, will it be enough?

REME chapter, again, very little room for cuts. With 19 Light Brigade's REME formation gone, there's just the indispensable 5 + 1 Battalions, one for each MRB plus 7th Battalion (Air Assault) which serves the AAC helicopter fleet and 16 Air Assault brigade.

In addition, there's two mixed regular/TA battalions, one in each of the two logistic brigades.

There does not seem to be any room for cutting further battalions, but i guess all of them will be downsized. A number of Light Aid Detachments will also go along with the units they support, and that is:

90 men for each Armoured Infantry Battalion cut [9 to 6 or 5, so i'd say at least 270 men]

115 for a Royal Artillery Regiment [probably an AS90 one, an L118 regiment like 40 RA probably has a significantly smaller LAD]

Up to 160 men in the LAD of air defence regiments [assuming something on the lines of the merge i proposed happens]

75 on average in each RLC regiment

60 in a Signals regiment

85 in a close support engineer regiment [38 Royal Engineers, cut along with 19 Light Brigade]

And so along.

Royal Armoured Corps and Cavalry regiments chapter. In theory, we are waiting for a tank regiment and a recce regiment in each MRB. In practice, the Telegraph article suggests that this plan might have had to be abandoned, but we'll have to wait and see.

Two Squadrons coming from 1RTR are almost certainly doomed as soon as they come back from Afghanistan involvement, after they have been pushed out of the CBRN regiment with the Fuchs vehicles being retired. A Squadron 1RTR however will stay almost certainly: the training Squadron is likely to be still needed after all, no?

All other tank regiments are, at best, being downsized. A Type 44 regiment counts 550 men, including some 120 REME, but i think at best we'll have Type 38 regiments, even smaller.

The Telegraph talks of tanks going to the reserves, again, but this could mean anything. It might be that the regiments become mixed, say, with 2 regular and 1 TA squadrons.

Or all five tank regiments are cut and small formations of tanks added to the 5 Recce regiments, or other solutions still. Hard to say.  

The Recce regiments should not change, at least in theory. Plan is for 3 squadrons, two mounted in FRES Scout and 1 in a wheeled UOR-to-core vehicle, which is expected to be Jackal.

The Household Cavalry Regiment is said to be off-limits and safe from cuts, but i have doubts about this meaning that the 4-squadron establishment stays. Currently HCR is the only recce regiment on 3 Sabre Sqns, since D Sqn is available for tasking with 16 Air Assault brigade. In future, who knows.

The REME have around 90 men in each Recce regiment. The number might drop lower.

Royal Logistic Corps chapter: the Telegraph suggests a cut from 15.240 men (early 2011) to around 12.000, and this, to my eyes, looks... out of place. I very well might be wrong, but i think in the RLC, more than in armour or artillery fields, there is space to expand the roles given to reserves, and there is arguably more room to make cuts.

Also, with the army dropping to so much lower numbers, to a single deployable divisional HQ and much less ambitious planning assumptions are 12.000 men in the logistics sector still required? Seems oversized to me.

I'd very much personally try to find solutions here, instead of chopping severely artillery, armour and engineers.  

A last consideration i want to make is on the Corps of Army Music.

Please, don't take it as an offence, as personal hostility or anything. But 24 bands, and 790 men (as of early 2011)? No way when cuts as dangerous and damaging as those currently being enacted are a reality.

790 men is more than a whole Armoured Infantry battalion inclusive of REME personnel and all other components.

It just can't do.

Now there's some substance to the claims

PAAMS now can rightly claim it can handle highly supersonic threats, after the French Navy's Forbin destroyer [note: France classes its two Horizon vessels, for some reason, as frigates...], of the Horizon class, shot down a Coyote supersonic target drone in a test on April 4, 2012.

The trial validates the PAAMS system, which is used by the RN's Type 45 destroyers, albeit in a different variant, due to the use of a different radar set (SAMPSON against EMPAR). 

The target used is a GQM-163A Coyote, designed and produced in the US. It is an horrendously expensive system, but it is invaluable in simulating the most powerful ship-killer missiles in the world: in the terminal approach phase, the GQM-163A flies at Mach 2.5 at 16 feet of altitude, providing unrivalled realism, and an ultimate challenge for the SAM system of a warship.

The latest variant of the drone, the High Diver, ascends to 35,000 feet and Mach 3.3 cruise under ramjet power, and executes a 40-degree unpowered dive to its objective point near the ocean’s surface at the end of its 110 mile journey.

With this attack profile, the Coyote can simulate (as much as possible, anyway) the ballistic anti-ship missiles of China and Iran.  

France ordered one such target drone plust technical support and related material for 9.2 million dollars in 2007, and finally used it on 4 April 2012 for the test. 

06 April news

US Navy's F35C Fleet Replacement Squadron will stand up May 1st on Eglin Air Force Base. The Squadron, will fall under 33th Wing USAF, and is the Navy component of the F35 Integrated Training Centre of Eglin.
The squadron plans for a strenght of 15 F35C, and will train pilots and maintainers for the C fleet.

The Squadron is the VF-101 "Grim Reapers". 
I already covered the subject of the Integrated Training Centre of Eglin here.



Training deck crew for CATOBAR recovery ops. Two interesting video showing how the switch to CATOBAR is being trialed, simulated, and how it is informing the design changes to CVF.





The next months are going to be busy ones for the CVF program: a big part of Queen Elizabeth's hull [LB05 and LB02] will arrive in Rosyth for assembly, and a new build cycle will start as the hull of the carrier starts to really come together.



BAE systems succesfully delivered the Tornado Helmet Mounted Cueing System as a UOR for helping pilots operative in Afghanistan. In the next months the HMCS will be rolled out onto the wider Tornado fleet.



The RAF thinks of the Heron TP. With Telemos/Scavenger not coming online until 2020 and the Reaper funding being a UOR that will finish in 2015, the RAF is thinking of what to do to cover the gap. There are at least two options:

- Retain Reaper by bringing it into Core Budget when the treasury funding stops coming
- Acquire Heron TP from Israel

The Reaper option in my view is the most logical, and France's own interim UAV program is there to prove that it is also considerably cheaper. At least 50% of the current RAF Reaper fleet will be worn out by 2015, with how busy the fleet has been, but by then there will be a Reaper control station fully operative on Waddington air base, and years of operational experience to build upon.
The easiest solution would thus be, in my view, to make another order for new Reaper airframes to keep up the fleet strength.

The Heron TP is the most advanced Israeli drone. It has a single engine and twin tail booms. It can fly above 40.000 feet and stay in the air for over 36 hours with internal fuel, with around 1000 kg of sensors as payload, distributed in a big belly bay/bulge and in two pods in the tail booms. A "gondola" payload container can be fitted under the fuselage, and this high payload capability is seen as a way to future-proof the drone: Israeli sources have already expressed the idea that one day there might be an air refueling drogue system fitted in a special gondola, giving the Heron the capability of act as air tanker for other drones: something that the US are already experimenting with the Global Hawk.
It weights nearly 5 tons. With a 26 meters wingspan, it is believed that a typical mission is a 24 hours search loiter over an area at 1000 km from the take-off base, undoubtedly impressive.
Its advantages might lay in the very high altitude of cruising, easing problems of integration of the drone in civilian airspace (to this day a very hot issue braking the expansion of UAV roles at home), but it would represent a whole new investment, a whole new challenge and fleet and infrastructure to stand up.
In addition, while wing hardstations for weaponry might eventually be added, as it is the Heron TP is unarmed, and with it the RAF would either lose the considerable hunter-killer capability of Reaper or need to spend many millions of pounds to add the pylons and weapons to the Heron. 

Despite France's Senate recommending a cheaper Reaper buy, the french government is pressing on to buy Heron TP and have Dassault make extensive work on it to bring the drone to France specifications. It is a political/industrial choice.
But the UK MOD definitely does not have money to throw out of the window, so i hope that whatever decision is eventually taken it is a well thought-out one.

Lots of words to say positively nothing

An interview of DefenceManagement with Brian Johnson, UK business development director at BAE Systems, about the Type 26, contains the only useful information that the Flexible Deck, also known as "Mission Bay" is still an option being considered. Final design will be settled upon only at Main Gate, in the middle of the decade.
However, one would hope that they do have some clear ideas to work upon from now to 2014. If they have them, though, they are not sharing.

Possibly even more uninteresting is the House of Commons report on F35/JCA just released.
Frankly, coming on this blong and reading my articles, the PAC would have been able to put more detail in it. You can give it a look if you want, but it really adds nothing new.

A real news is the fact that AirTanker is having trouble refueling Tornado GR4s: 20% of the time, the contact results in fuel leaking around the Tornado probe.
The problem must be fixed with money coming from the AirTanker consortium due to the type of contract. This is a good news in the bad news. It also means that it is in the interest of AirTanker to fix the problem quickly, or they will shoulder the losses.

The core fleet of 9 air tankers, including five 3-points tankers (Voyager KC3) is still planned to be delivered in time, by 2014.
Already this year the first RAF crews and Voyagers will be ready to work as flying hospital / medical evacuation airplane, and obviously as troop transports, but air to air refueling training and operations won't start until the Tornado problem is fixed.

No news about the Typhoon AAR trials, which had been cause of delays in the last few months due to the MOD being unable to provide Typhoon jets for the trials...!
Hopefully there won't be further problems.

Lapland test for the thermal optics of the FRES Scout

"The best images i've ever seen"

Comments are very positive from the extreme-climate trials of the FRES Scout thermal sights. The images shown are indeed impressive for their quality.

A report is contained in the April 2012 edition of DESIDER.

It also reports that March 12 saw a meeting of the secretary of state for defence with the colleagues from the other Typhoon partner nations. The meeting was about setting the new schedule for weapons integration on the fighter jet, a process that the UK would like to speed up. The Telegraph reported in the past months that Planning Round 12 would contain progress and confirmation of the Brimstone and Storm Shadow integration.
Unfortunately, DESIDER steps short of telling what the results of the meeting were.

Financial issues are slowing down the decision making, and Italy's air force, for example, is in difficulties at finding funds for Typhoon work and does not really want to move forwards with the plan, selling to the italian government the vision that Typhoon is about air-to-air, mostly to protect from further cuts the existing Tornado and AMX component and to preserve the already downsized F35 order.

This friday should see Admiral Di Paola, minister for defence, present to the italian parliament the plan for defence reform and downsizing. Details are eagerly awaited re: F35 (how many A and how many B in the 90-strong order?), FREMM (no hope of getting the last four?), LHD programme (is it confirmed?), reduction of the Army from 11 to 9 maneuver brigades and other matters.  

Is 1st Battalion The Rifles going to go...?

Is 1st Battalion The Rifles, fourth maneuver battalion of 3rd Commando Brigade since 2008, going to be disbanded, or anyway removed from Commando and amphibious duties?
It is a doubt that has dawned on me also thanks to a comment of Phil. The Fleet Protection Group Royal Marines becoming 43 Commando could be a (poor, but good for politicians) cover up for a reduction to the brigade?

I hope no. But 1st Rifles is not mentioned at all as part of 3rd Commando Brigade in the Royal Navy website, and more worrisome it is never mentioned in the October 2011 "Commando Vision" document which explains the role and force of 3rd Command Brigade following the SDSR.
Of course, 1st Rifles is not part of the Royal Marines, but it is under Navy control, and one would expect to see it listed along other Army-supplied components of the brigade such as 24 Commando Engineer Regiment. The total absence of any mention is worrisome. 

In addition, we've heard that The Rifles, along with the scottish regiment of infantry, are likely to be the hardest hit in the Army reform plan.

It's only a fear / suspect for now, but things do not have a reassuring look about them.

Early April news, waiting for the Planning Round

Selective Precision Effect At Range (SPEAR) is making leaps this year, with MBDA announcing that the Brimstone 2 [SPEAR Capability Block 2] will enter service with the RAF next year and also saying that SPEAR Capability Block 3 is progressing with design and development and flight tests will start next year. At the Farnborough show in July, MBDA has promised that they will showcase more about this new weapon. The last we've heard talked about a 100 kg, 180 km range mini-storm shadow, so to speak, carried on a multiple rack (SDB style) carrying 4 weapons and fitting inside the weapon bay of the F35. SPEAR Capability Block 3 is meant to be a network-enabled weapon capable to hit with extreme accuracy moving and relocatable targets as well as fixed ones.

In addition, Raytheon UK has been awarded a 60 million pounds contract for the replenishment of Paveway IV stocks after many hundred of the bombs have been expended in these years between Afghanistan and Libya. It is possible that as part of this new order a few new variants of the Paveway IV bomb will come to light and be delivered to the RAF, since Raytheon has proudly specified that they are "focused on a technological growth path which, under the UK MOD's SPEAR (Selective Precision Effects at Range) CAP 1 program, will enhance the system's capability with low collateral and penetrator warhead options, enhanced moving target capability and enhanced range."

SPEAR Capability Block 1 is meant to introduce new warhead options and new improvements to the Paveway IV guidance kit. For increasing range, a very likely solution is the adoption of the MBDA Diamond Back wingkit, which would enable the Paveway IV to glide over a distance of many tens of kilometers, giving it a stand-off range. Enhanced moving target capability is notionally expected to be achieved with the addition of a Selex Galileo Imaging Infra Red seeker which could lock on on vehicles moving as fast as 100 kph. A reduced yeld, low frammentation warhead option for urban engagements is envisaged, and a bunker buster warhead is desired, possibly as a replacement for the current capability, represented by the 2000 lbs Enhanced Paveway III with BLU-109 warhead. A bunker-buster warhead could emerge from the HARDBUT (do not laugh, not joking!) joint studies with France.

Currently Paveway IV only comes with a US 500 lbs MK82E warhead, but like all Paveway guidance kits, it could and hopefully will be adapted for use on larger warheads. Currently the Typhoon only uses, for examble, the GBU/EGBU-16 Paveway II, a laser guided (with GPS addition in the Enhanced GBU) bomb using the MK83 1000 pounds warhead (for the RAF, actually, that is the UK-built equivalent mass warhead, the MK13 or MK18 originally, and the updated MK20 or MK22 these days), which will need replacement at some point, as will the 2000 pounds Paveway III which uses the MK84 warhead [the RAF might not use this variant, though] or the BLU-109 bunker buster one [the BLU-109 is now the RAF standard warhead on the Paveway III. A modified BROACH warhead derived from that of Storm Shadow was shown bolted to a Paveway III guidance kit as far back as 1994, but it does not seem to have had great diffusion. Vanished should also be the early-days hybrids which combined a 1000 pounds MK20 warhead, Paveway II wing-kit and Paveway III guidance kit]. Paveway IV will be released for Typhoon use this June, and will be in active RAF service with the Typhoon by September next year.  

Raytheon has sled-tested a bunker buster 500 lbs warhead with Qinetiq collaboration, aiming to SPEAR contracts. While 500 lbs limits the lethality and penetration that can be obtained, the warhead would be readily available as it does have the same mass and centre of gravity of the current MK82E, with no need for any additional integration work. Same approach goes for the reduced-yeld warhead for use in built-up areas. 


The Paveway IV is also being integrated on the F35, and a first pit-drop test of the weapon from an F-35 was already performed at Eglin AFB, Florida, in late March. The bomb will be integrated for internal and external carriage both. 

A glorious unit returns as the Fleet Protection Group Royal Marines is re-christened 43 Commando Fp Gr RM. 790-strong, this unit reports to 3rd Commando Brigade and provides protection for the fleet, most importantly for the SSBN fleet and shore infrastructure connected to the nuclear deterrent. It also provides "Green" boarding teams, employed on british warships sent on maritime policing duties in dangerous areas where "warlike" activity is expected.

The RN crews of frigates and destroyers provide the "Blue" boarding teams, which are used on lower-danger searches.

43 Commando is immortal in the memory for its exploits in the battle of Comacchio in northern Italy, in which Cpl Thomas Peck Hunter, in a well-known act of bravery, seized a Bren gun and stormed German machine-gun positions, shooting from the hip and single-handedly capturing or driving the enemy away until he was cut down – but not before his troop reached safety.

The action saw Hunter posthumously given the nation’s highest military honour, the last (to date) of ten Victoria Crosses awarded to Royal Marines.

The Defence Reform progresses as the Joint Forces Command takes shape. 2 april 2012 saw the JFC standing up in its new headquarters in Northwood. 

The Joint Forces Command is expected to reach full operating capability next year, with a number of joint organizations having already been assigned to the Command:

• The Permanent Joint Headquarters (known as PJHQ)
• The Permanent Joint Operating Bases in Gibraltar, Cyprus, British Indian Ocean Territory and South Atlantic Islands
• The Joint Force Headquarters
• The Joint Force Logistics Component
• The Joint Counter-Terrorist Training and Advisory Team
• The Directorate of Special Forces
• The Defence Academy
• The Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre
• Defence Intelligence
• Surgeon General's Headquarters and the Joint Medical Command
• The Joint Arms Control Implementation Group
• The Defence Centre of Training Support
• The Defence Cyber Operations Group.

The Joint Forces Command has a central staff of around 150 between military and civilian personnel, but with the controlled organizations it will effectively direct over 30.000 men between military and civilians. First Joint Forces Commander is Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach, RAF.

The Joint Forces Command will:

"ensure investment in joint capabilities is appropriate and coherent, and strengthen the link between experience in operational theatres and top-level decision-making."

"ensure that a range of vital military capabilities, functions and organisations – such as medical services, training and education, intelligence, and cyber – are organised and managed effectively and efficiently to support success on operations."

This centralized approach is similar to that adopted by the German armed forces, which have a Joint Support Service counting some 36.750 men as of 2011. Around 26.000 of these come from the army and the total includes 14.620 men of the Joint Medical Service.

Interestingly, the German armed forces's signals units are considered a joint asset and are part of this command. It would be interesting to consider the application of a similar move in the UK, taking the Royal Signals and the tactical communications unit of the RAF and Navy and put them together in a single, large organization centrally managed.

Again, in Germany the military police is also a joint asset under Joint Support Service, while in the UK there's the Royal Military Police, the sizeable RAF Police, the MOD Police [which is a civilian force currently counting over 3000 men and due to be cut back to 2400 by April 2016], the MOD Guard Service and a Royal Navy Police, which provides a Troop to 3rd Commando brigade.

There seems to be scope for centralization and efficiency in this area as well in the medium term, and i'd suggest planning for it in earnest, since i'd much prefer cutting back on duplication before cutting on frontline soldiers and formations.

Since we have formed the Joint Forces Command, let's give it a meaning and use at least.

FRES SV continues to progress. General Dynamics has been assigning contract after contract in the last few months, as the suppliers of the various components for the new vehicles are selected. The latest contract covers the software and operating system to be used on the vehicles. It follows other contracts, such as those assigned to BARCO for the supplying of the displays and to ViaSat for the onboard data encryption unit.

Over 36 explosive/destructive tests have been completed in the past months to validate the protection levels of the FRES SV hull, and things are progressing well. Expect more contracts to be signed in the months to come, since the list of requirements has been shortened considerably after the various agreements reached, but still has many voices open for tender.

Towards a busy Somali summer? The European mandate for the anti-piracy "Atalanta" operation has been recently broadened in scope to authorize military attack on pirate havens ashore, by helicopter and by naval gunfire (No missiles or ground troops due to German opposition, however).  

Now command of Atalanta has been passed on to France, and the promise is to seize the initiative from the pirates by patrolling close to shore, attacking their bases, and possibly expanding the security patrols in Somali waterways.

France has deployed to the area Maritime Patrol Aircrafts (Nimrod MRA4 was expected to go by this time as well, but we know how that ended...), the frigate Georges Leygues with two Lynx helicopters aboard and the LHD Dixmunde, Mistral-class, which can act as an helicopter carrier with 16 machines.

Despite Germany's opposition and hesitations, France, UK and Netherlands are pressing for a far more active answer to the growing piracy problem. China can be expected to also support such a move: they have long made clear that they regard the only solution to the problem being going ashore and smashing the pirate havens there, indeed.

It has been reported that this year's Royal Navy Response Task Force Group, which will set sail in the summer for exercise Corsican Lion with France's Charles De Gaulle carrier strike group, will then set sail for Somali waters to take part in such "active" reaction to piracy. For the second year in a row, the Task Force might set sail for training and end up shooting very real bullets, after Libya events last year.

This time, it won't be Albion and Ocean, but HMS Illustrious and HMS Bulwark, accompanied by escorts and RFAs vessels, including tankers, Bay class LSDs and probably a Fort stores vessel.

Illustrious is widely expected to carry Apaches, that will be tasked with attacks on pirate bases. Cameron has been said to be asking for this since last February.

Busy summer ahead for the Royal Navy.

In the meanwhile, HMS Daring shines in the Gulf and HMS Dauntless is to carry out the first Type 45 south atlantic patrol, and in May the assembly work for the carrier Queen Elizabeth will make giant leaps forwards. LB02 was powered up this March, 6 months ahead of schedule. In May both LB05 (1600 tons) and LB02 (over 6000) are to be moved by barge from Portsmouth to Rosyth, with the start of Assembly Cycle B.

LB04's two halves will be joined up in the next few days, and the Combat System of Queen Elizabeth is making progress and being tested at HMS Collingwood.

Around 25 May the giant LB02 section will start its travel, and it'll be a major milestone in the build programme. And of course, around the 17 of April we should finally have some clarity about the choice of the airplane to fly from the ships.

About time, to say the very, very least.

On 30 March, HMS Liverpool decommissioned, after being in the thick of the action until her very last moments, with Libya, escorting the russian aircraft carrier and then the exercises in Norway keeping her running at full pace. A most distinguished vessel of the Royal Navy bowing out with honor.

And with the Type 22s gone and the Type 42s to be entirely gone by 2013, the shore-based Tyne gas turbine training set has been shut down, closing a long era of Royal Navy engineering. The engine of the gas revolution soon will be no more. The Spey era will last until the 2030s, however, and the WR-21 and MT-30 eras are dawning thanks to Type 45 and CVF. 

F35 updates. The US accountants and DoD have re-priced the F35 program. It was widely anticipated that it would be 15 billion dollars more expensive, turned out being 17, but the US acquisition plan remains unchanged, and there's nothing new about the rumors of the B order of the USMC being cut back down to just 65.

By 2018 USN and USMC will be getting 50 F35s per year.

I also saw a new LM promotional image with upgraded quantities of jet fighters for nations: for example, Italy is down from 131 to 90 as announced in Parliament last month, and Norway is down to 48 from 56 as just confirmed (4 LRIP to be used for training, 42 fighters main order, 6 options to be confirmed later on). The figures for all countries are, in other words, very accurate and very up to date.

For the UK the figure is 3 B (those already ordered, even if the third, BK-3, is to be given to the USMC in exchange for one of their C, probably to be named CK-1) and 135 C.

Unfortunately, this figure is unlikely to mean anything serious, compared to the other numbers, as the UK still has to finalize its plan... But one can hope! 

The US DoD has announced that they expect to produce 50 Navy Department's F35s per year from 2018 onwards, with the order equally equally split, 25 B and 25C, at least in 2018.

2018 is planned to see US orders for:

60 A (to rise to 80 per year by 2021)

25 B

25 C

They have also released updated expected recurring flyaway cost of the full-rate production airframes (in 2012 dollars):

78.8 USD million x F35A

106 USD million x F35B

87 USD million x F35C

If these prices are anywhere near reliable and representative of the cost to be paid by the MOD, 50 F35C would cost some 2718 million pounds [of course, spare engines, spares and all the rest are not included], while an equal number of F35B would come at 3312.5 million pounds. Again, spares not included, and we know that the B-variant spare engines are expensive like hell, so the total difference is likely to be greater still.

That is a difference of 594.5 million pounds, anyway, to start with, and it is enough to buy an EMALS/AAG set and pay for part of the installation work. It does not cover all of the conversion's cost, (458 + 400 million pounds according to the US Navy-sponsorised estimates).

At best, when spares are factored in, the conversion of ONE carrier might be covered. 

But we need two, so the C must prove economically attractive enough to ensure conversion of Queen Elizabety during refit in the 2020s. It is likely to prove very challenging, though.

The choice remains difficult, and the future of the second CVF not at all safe.