Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The MOD has looked into the X47B carrierborne UCAV

... But STOVL carriers will make any development in this direction impossible, since the UCAV is, you guess it, a CATOBAR one.
Wonder if politicians are aware of it... 

News of the interest of the MOD for the X47B emerged in a recent written answer of Lord Hastor:

Question

Lord Moonie (Labour)
To ask what discussions they have had with the Government of the United States or Northrop Grumman Corporation about the X-47B unmanned combat air programme.

Answer

Lord Astor of Hever (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Defence; Conservative)
The Ministry of Defence has held an initial scoping discussion with the United States Government on the X-47B unmanned combat air programme. Northrop Grumman Corporation has not been involved.


Let's be clear on this, it does not mean that the UK wants to buy the system (at least not anytime soon), but it might be about trying to bring some of the highly advanced american research, with related achievements, into the UK's own drone programme.
But it is worth remembering that the X47B is on track to be trialed at sea on USN carriers in 2013, the same year in which the USN hopes to start trialing the F35C on a Nimitz carrier, and the USN wants, from 2018 or 2020 at the latest, be able to have 4 to 6 UCAVs embarked in each carrier air wing.
The CATOBAR, long endurance, stealth drone for reconnaissance and strike is here now

As a quick list, the US has:

- Developed software that was capable to guide a Super Hornet in an arrested landing on a carrier at sea without the pilots doing a thing

- Is developing software that will enable the future embarked UCAV to recognize and understand gestures and body language of the deck control crew and officers, which will so be able to guide the drone on deck as they would guide a normal fighter with a man in the cockpit

- They are leading on the technique of air to air refuelling of drones from manned tankers and even from other drones. Tests were conduced also last January as the program progresses. 




In the UK, Philip Hammond is still expected (now next week, everything keeps sliding to the right...) to bring the issue of Carrier Strike at the national security council to abandon the CATOBAR path and return to the F35B. Hopefully with the consolation of getting both carriers in service, but note that this is an ambition and not at all a certainty. If we revert to STOVL and still get one single carrier, it is officially the worst decision ever. 

Mr. Hammond came out with the genial assesment that converting Prince of Wales at build is expensive, and converting Queen Elizabeth in refit is even more expensive, and i have to say: how smart an observation!
Navy Matters.com, or even my Blog, have been saying this in forever. When people babbled about "converting Queen Elizabeth", i told them again and again "no way at this stage of the work. It'll have to be Prince of Wales, with QE fitted eventually during the first major refit".
I was all but insulted back then, but i was totally, utterly, damned right. Let me have this bit of a fit of rage and revenge. Prince of Wales is the one selected for (eventual, and more and more unlikely) conversion. Not one of the smart guys of the "It will be QE" party has admitted being awfully wrong, unsurprisingly, but still, they were and are.

We still get feed up with the 1.8 billion figure for conversion, which at times becomes 2 billions, which has never been confirmed by official sources. It's a rumor thrown out in the wind which all carrier haters have eagerly made theirs.
The only official statements are from the US Navy, which puts the EMALS and AAG cost at the same pricetag as in 2010, if not a bit lower, and which estimate conversion work cost at 400 million; and a recent answer in Parliament:

Question

Jim Murphy (East Renfrewshire, Labour)
To ask the Secretary of State for Defence whether Ministers in his Department have received any representations on technical difficulties associated with converting the aircraft carrier to a CATOBAR configuration; from whom any such representations were received; and when they were received.

Answer

Peter Luff (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Defence Equipment, Support and Technology), Defence; Mid Worcestershire, Conservative)
The Ministry of Defence has not received any representations regarding technical difficulties associated with converting the operational Queen Elizabeth Aircraft carrier to a CATOBAR configuration.


So, what are we actually talking about? If there are no difficulties and no cost increases on the American kit, how is the cost-ballooning ever justified?
My guess, as i said already once in another article, is that 1.8 billion is the cost of converting both carriers.The official cost figures add up perfectly to make up the figure, and while coincidences are always possible, they are far less likely than people might think.

Note that there's one whole hell of difference between presenting the cost of ONE conversion as 1.8 billion when said cost is that of converting both ships. If i'm right, this is misleading advice at its best, a revival of Australia moving 500 miles up on the maps to allow land based planes to cover the Royal Navy at sea East of Suez after the retirement of the big carriers.

With the difference that this time it might be the Navy who uses the trick: for the RAF, owner of the JCA program and budget, the F35C is the best choice.
For the RN, given no budget increase, finding the money in the short term for converting the carriers is a huge issue. They might well be the main source of the F35B arguing, due to the scary thought of what might have to be cut in order to find the money for CATOBAR work.
It is very likely, especially considering that the RAF has craved the long range, higher payload F35C at least since 2005, and there's no reason why they should have changed their minds now.
They pay for the planes, and the C does more and costs less. Easy choice.

The Navy has to pay for the ships, and fears that vessels and Marines would have to be cut to save money for CATOBAR, since government won't give any additional funding. I can understand the fear, but i still cannot really support the solution chosen. STOVL is not much of a good decision even if it gets both carriers in service, which, again, is anyway far from sure.
It locks the UK into the F35B box, tying the destiny of the vessels and british airpower at sea to a plane that still does not really work and still risks being a failure. It ties the long-term defence equipment programme to the most expensive and less capable aircraft of the trio. And it makes the carriers effectively outdated even before they enter service.
UCAVs on carriers?

Not on british ones.
But the RAF will no doubt love to tap into the X47B tech for its notional "2030" land-based UCAV to develop in collaboration with France.
After all, they've loved the carrier's hero, the Buccaneer. I'm sure they'll love to turn another naval system in a land machine, throwing away its best capabilities. They might in exchange content themselves with the F35B.
And in the case, you can bet that its lack of range and payload will be used to argue for more UCAV funds for a "proper replacement" for Tornado, for the deep strike missions.

The reality is that an effort should be made to shoulder the short-term cost, with extra funding made available, and later there would be the benefit of the long-term gains.
But this is what the MOD never does.

11 comments:

  1. "If we revert to STOVL and still get one single carrier, it is officially the worst decision ever."

    Agreed.

    Two carriers is a must, and better two STOVL than one CTOL.

    That said, if we are going to do this properly we need both carriers flying F35c.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Two carriers is a must, and better two STOVL than one CTOL."

      One that i agree, even if with some reserves still.
      My terror is that we get STOVL and just one carrier.

      And at that point it becomes just plain injustifiable.

      Delete
  2. Reminds me off the time u and I mentioned F18's and Hawkeyes to guarantee both carriers with catotraps and we got pelted off the F35 fanboys.

    Bet they would take it now.

    CJ.

    ReplyDelete
  3. As far as I'm concerned the F-35B is a great choice for small/medium sized aircraft carriers as it gives them a long reach and strong punch for their size. The problem is, the Queen Elizabeth class are essentially supercarriers in size; what's the point of building two very large aircraft carriers operating aircraft that are designed to operate off a platform much smaller?

    The F-35C, at least in terms of carrier capability, is the best option. This £1.8 billion figure for converting the PoW is just a load of hot air; the US has already suggested that they'd be prepared to pay for any rise in cost in order to keep the UK's decision for CATOBAR.

    The MoD predicted the cost to be around £450 million for the purchase of EMALS and the conversion of PoW. However, a margin of up to £900 million was built in to cater for any cost overruns; this does not mean that the conversion WILL cost £900 million. However, as usual the carrier-haters, the F-35C haters and the media (quite often the same people) have taken this figure, doubled it as we obviously are building two carriers (negating the fact that it has been stated many times that only ONE is being converted) and got all hyped up about it. As you say, the cost has not been confirmed officially.

    Anyway rant over :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The worst thing we can do is revert to the STOVL carriers we can then be held to ransom by LM over costs with the CATOBAR we could change to F18s if the costs sky rocket with only one STOVL aircraft to be in production they know they can charge what they want and we would have too pay .

      Delete
  4. Both positions have their pros and cons, but on balance STOVL is the best if it makes two carriers likely. Having "super carriers" still does leave the door open to future CATOBAR conversions.

    However, any order for the F35B should be limited to 60 a/c and for the FAA only. The RAF should either go for a small order of F35A a/c for the deep strike requirement or my preference, which is to invest in UAVs with the proviso that the design must be operable from a QE.

    ReplyDelete
  5. BertramPantyshieldMay 9, 2012 at 9:14 AM

    On the Telegraph home page is an article saying the government is going to switch, but it also says that this is to get both carriers in service by 2018.

    To be honest, who truly knows? Given the current state of affairs I wouldn't be surprised if we saw two more U-turns before the carriers hit the water.

    I'd have to concur with the two STOVL is better than one CATOBAR. Then again, three 30,000 ton LHDs would be better than two half-empty 65,000 ton carriers... alas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BertramPantyshieldMay 9, 2012 at 9:20 AM

      Oh, and I also agree with the split-buy. The aircraft are designed for commonality; why pay more for an inferior aircraft? Indeed, wasn't the original plan for a joint B/C buy? With C covering the deep-strike aspect of the program? Buy 60Bs first, then later in the decade/next decade (when more money is available) buy as many As as we can afford.

      Delete
  6. what about this other plane from boeing, ive seen little bits and pieces,
    boeing f/a-xx 6th gen
    it looks impressive, what do you think.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's only a very, very early concept, generated for a RFI of the US Navy for a F/A-18 replacement, to enter service in the 2030s.

      Frankly, i have not much to say on it. Everything can and will change on this particular program.

      Delete