Road to Carrier Enabled Power Projection

The ships

HMS Queen Elizabeth will be in port for a few more weeks before heading out for another round of trials. There is still plenty to do: the ship has not yet received its weapons (Phalanx CIWS mounts and DS30M 30mm guns), for example. While she is in port she is getting further elements of the deck visual aids installed, and there will be no doubt further touch-ups on the list. Judging from CGIs and from the metallic frame well visible, the forward island should get a large display which is still missing. When she goes out to sea again, she’ll be more complete.

Testing the Firefighting Foam Spray system 

Testing the pre-wetting system for CBRN washdown 

There is still plenty to be tested, too. So far, Queen Elizabeth has not used her Mission System. Only navigation radars have been in use, while Artisan and LRR have been kept motionless. The next phase of trials will almost certainly focus on this area, to get to the point when the Royal Navy can commission her. That should happen by the end of the year or in early 2018. As of now, the Queen Elizabeth is still contractor owned and does not fly the White Ensign.

A further period of defect rectification and capability insertion is planned for next year. That’s when the F-35 related kit, beginning with the ALIS computers and ending, probably, with the planned complement of mission simulators to be carried onboard at all times.

The Instrument Carrier Landing System (ICLS) AN/SPN-41/41A, which provides all weather instrument approach guidance from the ship to the aircraft, might also only appear onboard during this period of works. Currently, the space reserved for the AN/SPN-41 Azimuth aerial is still empty.

The AN/SPN-41 is found on all American aircraft carriers, LHDs and LHA, as well as on the Italian carrier Cavour. It has a large, flat antenna installed on the stern of the carrier, for the provision of Azimuth data, and a second element, for elevation, found normally on the back of the island.

The particularly powerful and hot downwash of an F-35B coming in for a vertical landing has however introduced the necessity for appropriate shielding of the Azimuth component. The three vessels that the US Navy has so far refitted for F-35B operations (USS Wasp, USS America and USS Essex) are a good example: their stern area has been re-arranged, moving some equipment around (Phalanx CIWS mounts, most notably) and building a protective box around other pieces, including the 41’s antenna.

On HMS Queen Elizabeth, the 41 Azimuth component is contained within a specially designed sponson which was rapidly worked into the design and into the building process after the MOD requested it in November 2013, when the F-35 had completed two periods of Development Trials at sea on USS Wasp (DT-1 in October 2011 and DT-2 in august 2013.

The AN/SPN-41 is among the systems that still have to be installed 

Other equipment yet to be filled includes the Height Indicator Hover Aid Thermometer (HIHAT) which will appear on the forward island. A good view of the main Landing Aid lights and tools is available in the brochure by AGI, which produces them and is working right now on QE in Portsmouth. 

Meanwhile, on September 8, the second ship in class will be named with a ceremony in Rosyth which will see the Royal Lancers, affiliated to the ship, proving a spear Guard.

The USS America as commissioned (top) and following F-35B modifications applied in 2015 (bottom). The shielding of the AN/SPN-41 is evident. Phalanx has moved, with RAM replacing it. This might indicate that RAM is less vulnerable to hot downwash. 

Ship boats for both carriers are in delivery or on order. Four purpose-built boats have been ordered for Queen Elizabeth, and two (named Swordfish and Buccaneer) have already been delivered.

Queen Elizabeth's boat

Ship boats and RHIBs are carried in fully enclosed bays in the sponsons

Prince of Wales, instead, will receive three boats from the recent contract for “up to 38” workboats of the SEA class. The workboat contracts includes 33 firm orders and 5 options. Included in the firm order are three boats for Prince of Wales, while the options include 3 more boats of the same kind.

For general interest, the SEA class will include 10 workboats (for delivery in Fiscal Year 2018 (5), 2019 (3) and 2020 (2)), 3 passenger transfer boats plus 3 options, 7 Dive Support Boats (3 in 2019, 3 in 2020), 6 officer training boats plus 2 options, for delivery in 2020 and 2021; 3 survey motor boats (Medium) and 3 Survey motor boats (Small).

SEA class workboats are modular and come in 11, 13, 15 and 18 meters lenght. 

SafeHaven Marine will deliver the largest boat, a 18-meter WILDCAT60 derivative which will be delivered in May 2018 and will replace the current HMS Gleaner, which is soon to leave service after carrying out key survey work to chart the course out of Rosyth and into Portsmouth for the carriers.

At 18 meters, the replacement will be a big bigger than the current HMS Gleaner 

Capability build up

Things will get more interesting next year. HMS Queen Elizabeth is expected to put to sea between January and March 2018 for Rotary Wing trials and first embarkation of a Special Purpose Task Group of Royal Marines. The aim is to land Merlin HC4, Apache, Chinook and Wildcat on the ship and validate the employment of a rotary wing air group and of an embarked component of Marines up to Company-group size.

By August 2018, HMS Queen Elizabeth should achieve IOC as LPH. It is the Royal Navy’s intention to always embark a Royal Marines SPTG of anything between 50 and 300 marines supported by at least a “unit of action” of up to 4 Merlin HC4 from 845 NAS. The SPTG provides the carrier with a response force that can quickly move ashore for raids, evacuations of british personnel and, crucially, for recovery of downed pilots and recovery or destruction of valuable equipment lost in enemy territory. The F-35 is highly valuable technology and cannot be allowed to fall into enemy hands other than in very small pieces. Development of a Joint Personnel Recovery Capability within 3 Commando Brigade is well underway, and the RAF Regiment is working on JPR training of its own.

This period of early LPH trials and experimentation will be followed by the already mentioned period in port for technology insertion, which is meant to prepare the ship for First of Class Flying Trials. Queen Elizabeth will set sail for the US East Coast in the autumn. HMS Montrose is currently expected to escort her there.

The Royal Navy anticipates to send QE loaded with a Royal Marines force including a composite rotary wing air component. This will move inland for exercises alongside the US Marine Corps, while QE will embark 2 instrumented F-35Bs and 4 pilots for 8 weeks of tests and evaluation. Highlight of the trials will be the experimentation of the Short Rolling Vertical Landing technique, which is of routine use ashore but that, for the shipboard side, represents an innovation and something that has so far been trialed only in simulation.

In March 2018, 617 Squadron will formally stand up in Beaufort, in the US, in time to celebrate the 75^th anniversary of the Dambusters.

In June 2018 the Sqn will begin its extraction from Beaufort, with a first group of 4 aircraft flying to Marham, followed by other waves by August. By December, 617 Sqn should achieve Land IOC with 9 aircraft in Marham.

5 more aircraft and around 50 personnel will remain in Beaufort until the summer of 2019 to repay the USMC of the collaboration and literally provide back training flying hours. They’ll then move to RAF Marham in time for the stand-up of 207 Sqn, the OCU for the Lightning fleet, in July 2019.

3 Instrumented aircraft (BK-1, BK-2 and BK-4) will remain in Edwards AFB with 17(R) Sqn for test, development and evaluation purpose.

By the summer of 2019, work should be complete on the new Integrated Training Centre being built in Marham. It will have 4 networked full mission simulators, and the hope is to hook them up as soon as possible with Typhoon simulators in Coningsby and Lossiemouth as well as with USAF F-35A simulators at Lakenheath and elsewhere, to enable large-scale collaborative operations within the training simulation.

By then, Marham will also have 3 vertical landing pads; a hangar for deep maintenance, a facility for maintenance and monitoring of the health of the stealth coating and a new National Operating Centre hosting the UK ALIS infrastructure as well as the Lightning Force HQ, offices and other key supports. Drive-through sun shelters will be installed in the area destined to 617 and 207 Sqns operations, and existing Hardened Aircraft Shelters upgraded for F-35 compatibility.

The runways (one of 9500 and one of 6500 feet) will be resurfaced and the shorter one will have an area specifically configured as STOVL strip.

The Hardened Aircraft Shelters for 617 Sqn, to the left, and the 207 Sqn OCU area, including the Integrated Training Centre, to the right

The OCU facilities are entirely new builds, developed on brown land 

The ITC 

Maintenance facility, being built in place of the old No3 hangar. Another engineering facility replaces the old No1 as well. 

From the journal of RAF Marham, the progress in the build 

Project ANVIL is a massive infrastructure improvement

In the summer / autumn of 2019, the intention is to embark 617 Sqn and sail in UK waters for squadron-level trials and certifications.

In 2020 this will be followed by a larger exercise combining 617 Sqn with the other elements of the air wing (Merlin from 820 NAS; CROWSNEST from 849 NAS and so along) and of the surface task group, in order to reach IOC Carrier.

Finally, in 2021, Queen Elizabeth and her task group are expected to set sail for the first major operational deployment away from home.

The UK has received 11 F-35B so far, and by the end of the year they will be 14. 3 more aircraft will be delivered next year (BK-15, 16, 17), while BK-18 will follow in 2019, alone, as the MOD ordered a single aircraft within LRIP 11.

3 will follow within LRIP 13, for delivery in 2020. 6 more in 2021, 8 in 2022 and 7 in 2023. By the end of 2023 the UK will have 42 F-35B, of which 24 will be in frontline units as 809 NAS stands-up.

6 more aircraft will follow in 2024, so that by January 2025 the UK will have taken delivery of 48 F-35B.

The number of aircraft effectively embarked will depend on the Routine Operating Model that will be written down.

The profile of orders beyond Lot 16 (deliveries in 2024) is not yet known. The latest Major Projects Report released by the MOD has the F-35 programme end date as 31 March 2035. To receive all of the promised total of 138 aircraft by then, the MOD should place the last order in 2033, as two years pass between order and delivery.

Beginning in 2023 and ending in 2033, the MOD would have to order 8 - 9 aircraft per year. Not a particularly ambitious target, yet a non insignificant one for a ministry in perennial budget crisis.

The greatest threat for the future of embarked fixed wing aviation is the Split Buy idea that continues to float around as very real threat. More on the split buy danger here.

Within the Joint Force, the manpower split is currently expected to hover at around 58 to 42% in favor of the RAF, but with the Squadron’s commanders alternating by Service.

There is every intention to have a permanent exchange programme in place with the USMC, as used to happen with the Harrier, with one UK instructor in Beaufort within the USMC OCU, and a USMC instructor in the UK within 207(R) Sqn.

For expeditionary operations, the UK has the same kind of ambitions as the USMC. AM-2 matting stocks are expected to be rebuilt, and Royal Engineers should already be involved in USMC expeditionary airfield training at 29 Palms as this is being written. Next year, a landing strip and pad should appear in Kinloss, home of the Air Support engineers.

Training of deck handlers is carried out at the School of Flight Deck Operations at Culdrose, on the “HMS Siskin”, the dummy carrier deck modified for the new QEC age. 4 training mock-ups of the F-35B have been procured, and thanks to water tanks inside their structure they can replicate the various weights of different load-outs. They are also equipped with cockpits suitable for training of emergency extraction of injured pilots. Old Sea Harriers, which do not fly but which have working engines, are used to prepare personnel to the noise and hazards typical of flight deck operations. The School includes a special simulator, an enclosed space where personnel can train safely for fire emergencies.

4 Ground Training Aids, Sea Harriers and real helicopters are used for deck training

Since late 2015 the School also includes a new Flight Deck Training Simulator which allows flight deck crews to simulate every aspect of deck operations. Fire fighting & engineering emergencies, aircraft refuelling, marshalling and multi-spot landings can be simulated as well as changing sea states and day and night conditions.

In terms of capability of the F-35B, the UK is looking ahead to Block IV software and hardware updates, for integration in four successive incremenets (4.1 to 4.4) between 2021 and 2025/26. The full list of upgrades and additions is still being finalized by the Pentagon, but for the UK Block IV is defined by integration of the latest mark of ASRAAM (New Build, or Block 6 if you prefer); of the bunker-buster warhead variant for Paveway IV; of Meteor and SPEAR 3.

Block IV should give the F-35 full video downlink capability as well as swap the current EOTS targeting / FLIR assembly with the Advanced EOTS which offer a greater resolution, a new TV camera, an IR pointer and a lead-in laser for improved moving target engagement capability with laser-guided bombs.

A new processor (Technology Refresh 3, TR3, as opposed to current in-production aircraft which use the TR2, which supplanted the earlier TR1) a new cockpit display by Elbit are expected in Block 4.2.

Significant improvements to the engine, which would make it more powerful and reduce consumption of fuel by a good 5%, have been proposed but it is not yet known if there will be room to actually take such mods aboard in the Block IV programme, which is already quite extensive especially due to the long list of weapons to be added.

The IOC will be attained with Block 3F instead, which will begin to roll out in the coming months, and which brings integration of 2 ASRAAM for external carriage as well as up to 6 Paveway IV (2 internal, 4 external), plus of course 2 internal AMRAAM (or 4 if no bombs are carried internally).

The UK chose to wait out on the gun pods and only bring them aboard with Block IV, even though they will be cleared with 3F.

Phase 2 Ski Jump trials are underway at Patuxent River. Here a F-35B launches with a heavy ASRAAM and Paveway IV external load for the first time. Asymmetric loads and high wind launches are also being validated. 

On the amphibious side of things, the Royal Navy is working to embody some unspecified modifications and enhancements on Prince of Wales with the aim of getting it to a “LPH FOC” status in 2023.

This is a larger scale capability than the SPTG embarked on QE. Prince of Wales will embark two company groups of Royal Marines with stores and some vehicles / light guns as well as a large composite wing of helicopters for their insertion and support. It will be the de-facto replacement of HMS Ocean (which bows out early next year) and will be at the heart of the amphibious task group. With Prince of Wales, 1 LPD and at least 2 of the Bay-class LSDs the Navy intends to deliver the same 1800-strong Lead Commando Battlegroup envisaged today, with a greater rotary wing support.

The Lead Commando Battlegroup is meant to insert simultaneously a Company group by air assault and a mechanized company group mounted on Viking vehicles by landing craft from the LPD and LSDs.

The other companies and supporting elements would follow in subsequent waves.

Prince of Wales will be able to simultaneously launch 10 to 14 helicopters per wave thanks to her vast deck.

The modifications introduced on Prince of Wales should then be applied to Queen Elizabeth during her first refit around 2026.

The Navy intends to hold the aircraft carrier at Very High Readiness (5 days notice to move) with the “LPH” at High Readiness (20 to 30 days notice to move). For major deployments / operations, the two carriers would deploy together.

There will be, however, periods in which only one ship is available as the other enters refit. During those periods it will be more frequent to see mixed air wings including a smaller number of F-35Bs and a greater number of Marines and helicopters.

In conclusion 

The current plan is good. There is a lot of work to do, but the project looks solid and it is particularly reassuring to see the planned development of the amphibious capability, since the loss of HMS Ocean would otherwise have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s capabilities in this area. Now we have to hope that no new budget cuts come to knock pieces off this plan, and that the split buy idea is killed off, at least until after 4 squadrons of F-35B have been formed. 4 squadrons plus OCU are the current long-term plan and already it represents arguably a bare minimum target for a capable, sustainable fleet which must be able to generate a substantial deployable force. A split buy would greatly harm the entire project and dramatically reduce the UK’s ability to actually put jets on the deck.

An important element coming up is the MARS Solid Support Ship which must replace the old Fort Austin, Fort Rosalie and Fort Victoria around the middle of the 2020s. 

Next month might provide some clues about this programme as well as Type 31 since the Shipbuilding strategy should (finally!) be released. The MOD plans to brief industry about Type 31 at DSEI, on September 7. 

Contract award for MARS Solid Support is expected in 2020. These large ships, fitted with Heavy Replenishment At Sea rigs, will carry the stores, ammunition and spare parts needed to keep the carrier group going. Their role in support of amphibious operations will also be important, so details of their design and of the acquisition schedule are eagerly awaited. 

News from DVD2013 - UPDATE

The DVD event this year at Milbrook made less noise than in other years, partly because the Paris airshow stole the headlines and partly because the focus is shifting away from making big orders under Urgent Requirement procedure to fill gaps evidenced by combat experience in Afghanistan to finding ways to bring the UOR stuff already purchased into the Core Budget.



Jane's has a video feature about DVD2013 which contains a few interesting news. First of all, the Warthog seem to be on the list of the goners. The Army's position seems to be that there is no place for the vehicle in the Core Budget. This is hardly a surprise: who's been following this blog for a while has probably had the chance to hear from me the opinion that, either the Royal Marines are interested and buy in, or the Warthog has not an evident place in Army 2020. Mind you, this does not mean that it is a bad or useless platform, but that it does not fill an evident, prioritary capability slot and is, consequently, not going to see the money.

A Foxhound WMIK is also shown in the video. So far, the army has not ordered the WMIK nor the Utility variants of the Foxhound, since it already has Jackal, Coyote and Husky. Standardizing on a single platform (the Foxhound) would be of course interesting and advantageous, but it would cost a lot of money that the Army simply does not have.
The Foxhound in the images is fitted with an Electronic Warfare package on a telescopic mast.

A more interesting fact quoted in the article regards the exposition of a HDT Storm vehicle, a lightweight high mobility 4x4 developed as a weapon platform with casualty evacuation capability, with complete air transportability. The Storm fits within a Chinook's cargo bay, can be air dropped (including with Joint Precision Air Drop package, JPADS, to ensure high accuracy delivery) and can be airlifted by any tactical cargo aircraft. The Storm has a pintle mount for a medium machine gun near the driver's seat and a ring mount for an additional machine gun on top, giving 360° field of fire. It is meant to carry up to three litters in Roll-Over Protection system (ROP) while retaining its combat capability.

The HDT Storm provides impressive all terrain mobility

The HDT was showcased, according to Jane's, because industry is eyeing a MOD requirement, that could be launched in 2016, for the purchase of a similar platform as part of a program to try and rebuild a complete Joint Personnel Recovery capability (Combat Search and Rescue) to close one of several macro-gaps (Maritime Patrol Aircraft, carrier strike, Joint Personnel Recovery and Supression of Enemy Air Defence, SEAD)  in capability identified by Permanent Joint HQ (PJHQ).
The british army, in theory, already has a vehicle that fits inside a Chinook, and that is the Supacat HMT400, better known as the Jackal. However, fitting a Jackal inside a Chinook is a challenge: there really is no space to spare, the weapon mount on the ring on top of the vehicle must be removed and then re-fitted following disembarkation, and the HMT400, anyway, is not a vehicle thought for casualty evacuation.
While a Jackal with fuel and armor weights 5500 kg, and with crew and payload (kerb weight) can weight well over 7500 kg, with a minimum height (suspensions fully lowered, no weapon mount on top) of 1885 mm and a width of 2050 mm, the Storm only weights 1960 kg (kerb weight) rising to 3651 at full load, and is 1680 mm high and 2030 mm wide. The Storm can launch quickly out of a Chinook, without needing to be re-fitted with any piece, and ride over extremely rough terrain to reach the casualties and evacuate them back to the LZ. The mobility of the Storm is absolutely impressive, and significantly exceed even that of the Jackal, with its approach angle of 74° and capability to overcome a 914 mm high vertical obstacle.

Squeezing a HMT Extenda into a Chinook, with no space to spare @Supacat

The HDT Storm has been selected by the USAF for its Guardian Angel Air Deployable Rescue Vehicle (GAARV), so it is well placed to compete for any possible british order. If Joint Personnel Recovery ever manages to get funding in such a strained budget, that is.

The video also shows what looks like an unmanned, remotely controlled Project PANAMA Land Rover Snatch. These Land Rovers converted in drones are used as part of the Talisman route clearance convoys in Afghanistan. When not used to scout ahead of the other vehicles for mines and IEDs with their large front-mounted detector (ground-penetrating radar?), they are often seen towed by the large Mastiff vehicles.
The Land Rover in the video is shown with a second sensor, a Raytheon SOTERIA laser mine detector. It is not clear if the British Army has shown any interest for this system, which was classified before being shown at DVD. It might already be in use.

A PANAMA Land Rover as seen in Afghanistan, under tow and with the large IED Detector folded up

The Raytheon SOTERIA mounted on top of the Land Rover

The show also provided a perfect occasion for Navistar and Supacat to announce their collaboration agreement to jointly support the 1000-strong combined fleet of Husky, Coyote and Jackal vehicles which the British Army is bringing into core budget.
For the occasion, one of 16 new Husky recovery vehicles was showcased. The Husky Recovery is the MOD's solution to the urgent requirement for a light recovery platform, alternative to the huge, 32 tons MAN Wrecker, which is unsuitable for tight areas and for some tasks. The Husky Recovery seem set to have a good long term future, since the Coyote, Jackal, Husky and even Foxhound fleet are all "clients" for such lightweight recovery service and they all are an important component of Army 2020.
It would appear almost certain that additional Husky recovery vehicles will be required in future. British Forces News has a video from Camp Bastion showing the Husky Recovery.  


WEW also put its focus on long term support of UOR capability, in particular regarding the Fuel Dispensing Racks it provided to the MOD for use in Afghanistan. These containerized 9500 liters tanks, compatible with hook arm and Enhanced Pallet Load System (EPLS) cargo trucks (6x6 or 8x8) are designed as self sufficient fuel stations that can be loaded on a truck, transported to a FOB and dropped on the ground, ready to dispense fuel. 

The FDRs are only one of many deployable, containerized solutions developed in the last few years. CT scanners, workshops, fitter sections and other services have been similarly made "expeditionary" with some brilliant solutions. G3 has provided many of these solutions.
For example, already back in 2008 the MOD took delivery of 13 Combined Instrument Repair Facilities (CIRF’s), container-mounted laboratories for the maintenance of day, night and laser sights used on armored vehicles including Challenger 2, Warrior and FRES SV.
There are also 44 Deployable Machine Shops 

A containerized hospital facility also entered service. A full solution for the support of the Military Working Dog Regiment also followed, with 17 containerized accomodation units having been procured, each comprising environmental control and spaces for the handlers to prepare food for the dogs and do basic admin. 
More recently, the Fitter Section In A Box (FSIAB), was procured: a container with two inflatable shelters, its own generator and all the tools needed for maintenance on Foxhound, Husky and Jackal/Coyote vehicles.
Other solutions and offers also exist.

The look of a container accomodation unit deployed and fitted with external kennels

This year, G3 and Marshall have decided to work together in Team M3 to offer their combined capabilities to the MOD. This year's box solution is the module containing the two-man self-contained, deployable laboratory developed for the Future Deployable Geospatial Intelligence project. The Box is installed on a Mowag DURO II vehicle. The DURO is already in use in the british army in several roles, including as carrier for the deployable REACHER satellite communications terminals.

The DURO on mobility trials.

Marshall Specialist Vehicles is one of several companies composing the Team SOCRATES, comprising SciSYS and Actica Consulting. The team is lead by Lochkeed Martin UK, which won the contract for the Future Deployable GEOINT in January last year.
The Future Deployable GEOINT project is part of a wider program, PICASSO, for the modernisation and sustainment of british GEOINT capability, within the evolution of the armed forces' ISTAR.


Update 24 and 25 June 2013

Shephard adds more news from DVD with some news taken from Brigadier General Robert Talbot Rice, the head of the DE&S Armoured Vehicles Programme. 

Talbot confirms that the Challenger 2 Life Extension Programme is taking shape. It is currently still in the concept phase, but it will hit Initial Gate next year. It seems that all decisions that matter have yet to be taken, and the Brigadier General does not provide any real clue about what the Army is planning. The LEP will be mostly about Obsolescence Management, and this was to be expected, but Talbot nonetheless says that there opportunities to do some "really good things".
Accepted that the idea of replacing the rifled cannon with a smoothbore german L55 gun is dead, because of problems in adapting the internal storage spaces for the one-piece ammunition, there are other "opportunities" that were already highlighted by the now defunct Challenger 2E. For example, the replacement of the powerpack with a more modern one: years ago, the diesel Perkins CV 12 TCA 1,200 hp with associated Davis Brown TN-54 transmission and cooling system were replaced on a Challenger 2 used as demonstrator. In what was called Project Exmouth, the powerpack was replaced by a 1,500 hp diesel MTU EuroPowerPack composed by MT 883 V12 engine and Renk HSWL 295 TM transmission.
The improvement was dramatic: more speed, better mobility, and considerable free space obtained aboard, which could be used for storing more fuel or adding other capabilities. Eventually, this solution was adopted by the Challenger 2E that BAE offered, unsuccesfully, on the export market.

The vastly improved Challenger 2E failed to win the export orders BAE had hoped for, and it was eventually abandoned @Image courtesy of JW Boer

The replacement of the powerpack and the addition of an Auxiliary Power Unit to provide the tank's systems with energy while the main engine is off, would rank, in my opinion, as not just "really good things" but as extremely good things.

The Challenger 2 at the latest Theatre Entry Standard for Iraq operations. A true mobile fortress, it could certainly use a more powerful engine

On the Warrior CSP, the read is less pleasant. Apparently, so far the MOD has placed a firm contract for just 65 vehicles to be fully upgraded (including the much improved turret with the CT40 gun). The aspiration is to upgrade 300 more, but the Brigadier General specifies that discussions are still ongoing at Army HQ to decide exactly how many Warriors should get the upgrade. The Brigadier says that, if it so was decided, higher numbers of Warriors could be upgraded, but taking the money away from the pot currently reserved for FRES UV.

The last solid info we were given on the Warrior upgrade came from the NAO Major Projects Report 2012. The document allowed us to learn that:

The affordable fleet is made up by 565 Warrior vehicles (all variants, we have to assume)
The Warrior CSP was planned to be done on 445 vehicles

It is worth remembering that the Warrior upgrade is made up by several different components. In the words of the NAO:

1. Warrior Fightability Lethality Improvement Programme
(A new turret incorporating a fully stabilised automatic 40mm cannon)
The 40 mm Cased Telescopic Cannon and Ammunition System has been mandated as the weapon system for Warrior and procured by a joint Anglo-French project. The project is currently part way through qualification of the ammunition and cannon, concurrently the weapon system is being integrated into Warrior by Lockheed Martin UK, who will qualify the new turret.
2. Enhanced Electronic Architecture
(Power generation and distribution enhancement and the introduction of a modern electronic architecture)
3. Modular Protection System
(Applique Armour fixing points, enabling a 'tailored' armour solution to counter specific threats)
4. Armoured Battlefield Support Vehicle
(A new variant, replacing obsolescent platforms, that has equal protection and mobility to the core fighting platforms). Armoured Battlefield Support Vehicle is currently in the Concept Phase and is subject to future approval.

The "full upgrade" comprising modular protection system, enhanced electronic architecture and WFLIP is destined to the frontline IFV variants (FV510 Section vehicle, including those modified for anti-tank section carriage, and FV511 infantry command vehicle), while the "turretless" variants, only get the EEA and MPS improvements for obvious reasons. (NOTE: the turretless variants include the FV512 recovery and the FV513 repair variants, but also the FV514 artillery observation post, which has the turret but only a dummy gun due to the need for space for the electronics).

The Warrior CSP full package @Lochkeed Martin UK

 
The Warrior CSP programme is still in its Demonstration Phase, so that justifies the low number of full upgrades so far ordered. Final decisions on the exact numbers are evidently yet to be made. If Shephard's report is correct and the 300 further vehicles are to be intended as "turreted", that would mean a maximum of 365 vehicles armed  vehicles upgraded from a total of (if the NAO data is still up to date) 445 vehicles interested by the CSP. 
This would leave 80 repair, recovery and artillery observation vehicles. The numbers should be about right for the planned force of 6 armoured infantry battalions.

A Warrior CSP prototype, seen during trials with the Modular Protection System

Where exactly the Armoured Battlefield Support Vehicle sits, is hard to say. Until the release of the NAO 2012 report, many (certainly i had) had assumed that ABSV was dead, since nothing had been heard about it from as far back as 2005, when, while in the concept phase, it was merged with the Warrior CSP upgrade in the Labour mandated Defence Industrial Strategy (page 79, paragraph B3.8)


The ABSV requirement can be traced back to at least 1995, so it is rather scary to see it still as just a concept. Three prototypes were built in the early 2000s, when the conversion of 125 Warrior vehicles was envisaged, with ISD in 2007. There was to be a Command Post variant, an ambulance and a personnel carrier / general support variant, which perhaps would have included a mortar carrier development.  The objective was (and still is, at the end of the day) the replacement of a large number of FV430-series vehicles.

Today's shape of the ABSV is not yet clear. FRES SV is supposed to deliver an armoured personnel carrier, so that developing one from old Warrior vehicles does not appear necessary. FRES SV (albeit in a later phase, RECCE BLOCK 2) should also deliver ambulance and command variants.
On the other hand, there is no clear replacement in sight for the FV430 mortar carrier, and a medium weight bridgelayer requirement, for 35 vehicles, which was to be part of FRES SV, was descoped while a Warrior bridgelayer prototype was showcased.

The situation is especially complex because early this year the press reported that FRES SV, having been delayed with an extension to the demonstration phase, could be expanded to include vehicles originally planned for later RECCE Blocks: specifically the ambulance (from Block 3) and the Command Post and Engineer Recce Vehicle from Block 2.

However, i have not heard any news on wheter the decision was effectively made or not.

FRES SV as it was a few years ago, from a BAE presentation

The evolving shape of FRES SV. The Medium Armour and Manoeuvre Support parts of the programme are dead. Medium Armour was officially removed in Plannint Round 11. The red arrows show the proposed changes, which would bring forward the demonstration of Engineer Recce, Command Post and Ambulance variants. At the moment i don't know if the proposal was given the go ahead or not.

Planning Round 11 confirmed that FRES SV remains a fundamental part of the future army, but pushed entry into service to the right by 9 months while extending the scope of the demonstration phase. The ISD date is not disclosed (it is classified in the NAO report), but we are possibly looking at 2018, if not later. I've read that CVR(T) vehicles will not be entirely gone before 2026.

The FRES SV has been broken down into multiple parts, all with their own decision Gates. So far, activity has focused on RECCE Block 1 (Scout vehicle, Armoured Personnel Carrier, Repair, Recovery and Common Base Platform) but if other vehicles types are brough forwards, the whole strategy of the Blocks could be in for a rethink.

Part of the Block 2 is the Joint Fires direction vehicle, destined to carry a full six-man Fire Support Team of the Royal Artillery, with full equipment for the direction, under-armor or dismounted, of mortar, artillery and air attacks. However, in the Army 2020 structure, there might now be a direct overlap between the Warrior FV514 and the FRES FST: with the centralization of the tracked armoured vehicles in three brigades, instead of having such elements in five multi role brigades, means that, basically, the FV514 and FRES FST seem to now be in direct competition for supporting the tracked heavy armour, while there is not a planned FST vehicle for the wheeled mechanized battalions planned in the force structure.

One possible scenario is the cancellation of either the FV514 or of the FRES FTS, in my opinion. If i had to choose, i'd prefer developing the FRES FTS, which would offer much more advanced and future proof electronics as well as more space. It would cost more up front, probably, but it would be a better investment for the future.
Eventually, a FRES UV FST would be needed in future for the wheeled mechanised battalions, instead. Two tracked, medium weight FST vehicles are redundant, while there's a clear gap waiting to happen in the wheeled formations.

The FRES SV programme was expected to also include a larger, rear-echelon command post and a larger Unit Aid Post vehicle (ambulance variant for the evacuation of  casualties to the rear echelon, towards the UAP vehicle that is equipped for treatment), but even this might well change.
Finally, the RECCE Block 3 was also meant to include a Ground Based Surveillance vehicle, shown with mast-mounted long range sensors; a Shielder (retired from service early as part of cuts) replacement fitted with mine dispensers but also other means of area denial, including non-lethal solutions, and an Overwatch vehicle armed with long range missiles.
All three these variants appear, to my eyes, to be exposed at particularly high risk of never happening, despite being immensely interesting. The Shielder replacement vehicle would have a flatbed fitted with the systems selected under the ongoing Counter Mobility studies.  

In practice, a whole rethink of FRES SV appears necessary (again). The tightness of the budget, the overlap with Warrior in some niche areas and the gaps emerging because of the changing face of the Army suggest that a 3 Blocks FRES SV is no longer desirable.



One would expect the Warrior ABSV variant to go and fill the roles left uncovered by FRES SV. But the brigadier does not provide hints, and actually adds confusion when he says that part of the requirement for FRES UV could be perhaps covered by "more ABSV vehicles".
I hope he has clear ideas himself, because he admittedly lost me along the way: i'm finding it hard to guess what the line of thought is. Especially since it is not even clear from where the ABSVs will come from: there is no real room in the 445 vehicles highlighted for the CSP: perhaps ABSV would be about conversion of the remaining 120 vehicles (565 affordable fleet - 445 for CSP).

The Royal Artillery is trying to find ways (and funds) to implement its own specific system upgrade on the FV514, to turn it into a modern Fire Support Team armoured carrier. Below you can see the prototype, and read about the main features. The images and data are from Gunner, the Royal Artillery's magazine.

Report from Gunner magazine, showing the trials done by the Royal Artillery to shape the way forwards for the FV514

As we saw earlier in the article, there is now reason to believe that two tracked FST platforms are not needed nor desirable. If i was the one taking the decisions, i'd:

- Restructure ABSV to deliver a Warrior Mortar Carrier and the Warrior Bridgelayer. FV514 would be abandoned.

The US Army is having its own ABSV problem as it tries to replace the countleass support variants of the ancient M113. BAE systems is offering them the "turretless Bradley" family. Above, the proposed 120mm mortar carrier. Simple and relatively inexpensive, it is the kind of proposal i'd want to see as part of ABSV.

The turretless Bradley proposal: mortar carrier, medical evacuation vehicle, medical treatment vehicle, Command Post and General Purpose/APC. A programme of this scale was not viable for the Warrior, so long gone out of production, but nonetheless a number of hulls should be converted under ABSV to replace FV430 vehicles in some roles. The ABSV, however, should not overlap with FRES SV. It is not desirable to have two different tracked APCs, command posts and ambulances. In my opinion, ABSV and FRES SV should collaborate to replace, together, the FV430 and CVR(T)s in all roles. While adding a medium weight bridgelayer.

- FRES SV restructured to deliver Scout, Recovery, Repair, Armoured Personnel Carrier, Command Post and communications, Ambulance/Treatment, Fire Support Team vehicles and Countermobility platform.

Long range sensors and overwatch missiles, which are by definition meant to stay away from the fighting and observe / strike from long range and concealed positions, could be installed on cheaper platforms than a fully grown FRES SV hull. An example of this approach is the Sandcat 4x4 fitted with a battery of SPIKE NLOS missiles, which could be a very powerful solution to the Overwatch requirement. I'm pretty sure that Foxhound could be kitted in a similar way.   

Regarding FRES UV itself, it is in concept phase with a team of just one, for now, working on writing the list of requirements. Talbot Rice says that funding for FRES UV is available in the core budget from fiscal year 2015/16 onwards. The entry into service is expected in 2022 according to the MOD, but the Brigadies suggests that there is still a lot of thought to be put into the programme before final decisions are made. The army will see if other platforms (from Foxhound to ABSV) can help cover the needs of the force, but he anticipates that there is an irreducible requirement that will have to be met with a wheeled protected mobility platform. The new bit of info here is that it is no longer restricted to 8x8 only: Talbot mentions specifically a 6x6 as a possible solution.

FRES UV, judging from the road described in the Army 2020 plan, will very much return to the general requirements that were of the MRAV programme, years and years ago, when the UK hadn't yet left the Boxer 8x8 programme and FRES was yet to come.
Back then, the requirement was for a 8x8 vehicle which would come in APC variant (for 8 to 10 dismounts), Ambulance and Treatment, Mortar vehicle and Anti-Tank Platoon variant, with supports.
If Army 2020 wants to mechanized and put on wheels a minimum of three infantry battalions, FRES UV will need to deliver the same kind of variants, plus FST vehicle and Infantry Command variant. 
Either on 8x8 or 6x6 architecture.

At the mention of 6x6, the mind races to the VBMR 6x6 vehicle that the french army wants to replace a thousand or more VABs. I've been saying at least since 2011 that it would make sense to work as much as possible together on this one, and perhaps someone at DE&S agrees with me.
It would appear fair and advantageous for both to rub each other's back where possible: for example, it now seems likely that the french army will order 30 Watchkeeper drones to fullfill its requirement, as outlined in the recent White Paper. If this interview is real, french minister Le Drian says it is already decided that Watchkeeper will be the chosen sysyem.
In addition, Shephard reports that french army personnel is in the UK from over two months and has been trained on the Terrier, since the Armee de Terre has an incoming requirement for such an engineer vehicle. 
Interesting scenario, isn't it...?