Army announcement: not all questions get an answer - UPDATE

The Army is to be reduced by 23 Regular units to meet the manpower and budget targets for the future. The changes are due to be implemented by 2015, with the overall mandate to reach the capacity of 82,000 for the Regular Army and 30,000 for the Reserves by 2018, meaning that the whole reduction process was speeded up even further since the reduction to 82.000 was first announced in July last year.

The announcement came today in the House of Commons by Secretary of State for Defence the Rt Hon Philip Hammond MP after months of work by the Army to create a modern force for the challenges of 2020 and beyond. The force structure is the brainchild of the Army 2020 team, leaded by General Nick Carter.


The complete list of the victims of the Army reform which will deliver Army 2020, as for today's long awaited announcement, is as follows:

Household Cavalry and Royal Armoured Corps
• The Queens Royal Lancers will amalgamate with 9th/12th Royal Lancers (Prince of Wales's) upon completion of scheduled operational commitments and not before October 2014.
• The 1st Royal Tank Regiment and the 2nd Royal Tank Regiment will merge upon completion of scheduled operational commitments and not before April 2014.

Royal Regiment of Artillery
• 39 Regiment Royal Artillery and 40 Regiment Royal Artillery will both be removed from the ORBAT by October 2015.

Corps of the Royal Engineer
• 24 Commando Engineer Regiment will be removed from the ORBAT not before April 2013.
• 25 Engineer Regiment and 28 Engineer Regiment will be removed from the ORBAT not before October 2015.
• 38 Engineer Regiment will be removed from the ORBAT.
• 67 Works Group will also be removed from the ORBAT not before April 2015.

Royal Corps of Signals
• 7th Signal Regiment (Allied Rapid Reaction Corps) is to be removed from the ORBAT.

Infantry
• 5th Battalion the Royal Regiment of Scotland (The Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders,) will be reduced to form a Public Duties Incremental Company on completion of current task and not before August 2013.
• 2nd Battalion the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers will be removed from the ORBAT and absorbed into the rest of The Royal Regiment of Fusiliers upon completion of scheduled operational commitments in the autumn of 2014.
• The 2nd Battalion the Yorkshire Regiment (Green Howard's) will be removed from the ORBAT and absorbed into the rest of The Yorkshire Regiment on completion of their Cyprus tour and not before the Autumn of 2013.
• The 3rd Battalion the Mercian Regiment (Staffordshire) will be removed from the ORBAT and absorbed into the rest of The Mercian Regiment on completion of Op HERRICK 19 and not before October 2014.
• 2nd Battalion the Royal Welsh (The Royal Regiment of Wales) will be removed from the ORBAT and absorbed into the rest of The Royal Welsh Regiment not before Autumn 2013.
• 1st Battalion the Royal Irish Regiment will join the Prince of Wales’ Division.

Army Air Corps
• 1 Regiment Army Air Corps will merge with 9 Regiment Army Air Corps, bringing the Wildcat force under a single HQ based at Yeovilton not before October 2015.

Royal Logistic Corps (RLC)
• 1 Logistic Support Regiment will be removed from the ORBAT not before April 2015.
• 2 Logistic Support Regiment will be removed from the ORBAT not before October 2014.
• 23 Pioneer Regiment will be removed from the ORBAT not before October 2015.
• 8 Regiment, 19 Combat Service Support Battalion and 24 Regiment RLC will be removed from the ORBAT.

Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineer
• 101 Force Support Battalion will be removed from the Regular Army ORBAT not before Autumn 2015, and will transfer to the Reserve.

Royal Military Police unit
• 5 Regiment Royal Military Police is to be removed from the ORBAT as part of the drawdown from Germany. The three remaining Regiments will be re-organised.
• All SIB capabilities will be reorganised under one headquarters, while the Military Provost Service will be increased, and a specialist Support Operations group will be created.

There were a couple of surprises in the announcement: first of all, the loss of 39 Royal Artillery regiment. This is the only Regular regiment equiped with GMLRS, and it is the regiment introducing Fire Shadow into service. 

It is not clear at the moment if the loss of the Regiment implies the loss of GMLRS as well. Obviously, i hope it doesn't. The SDSR names GMLRS as a capability that would stay, so perhaps it will move entirely into 101 Regiment TA, which is the GMLRS reserve unit, or be maintained with some other kind of arrangement.  

Dispelling some of the fears about "shared support elements" for the Reaction brigades, both 29 Commando Royal Artillery and 7 Royal Horse Artillery are staying. 

The survival of

• 1 RHA
• 3 RHA
• 4 Regt RA
• 19 Regt RA
• 26 Regt RA

is also promising: perhaps, as i hoped, the RA will be able to stand up the 5 combined AS90/L118 regiments as planned. 

The UAV regiments (32 and 47) are staying, and both air defence units (12 and 16) are safe. We do not know the structure of any regiment, though, so there might be changes we are not yet aware of. Surely, all regiments will get smaller.

Weirdly, 14 Regiment (Training), is not named as part of the cuts, but does not appear in the Army 2020 Brochure. Mistake? 

Same situation for 11 Regiment Royal Signals, 5 and 25 Regiment RLC, the training formations, which again are not mentioned. 

What does it mean? Aren't the Training regiments worth reporting as part of the force...? 

The other surprise is the loss of the only Pioneer regiment of the Army, 23 RLC. Apparently, judging from Army documents, all 3 Logistic Brigade HQs could survive in a form or another, differently from what was announced in news reports. The document contains a graphic that specifically names 101 and 102 Brigades, but also shows a further 1-star Logistic formation, which i guess could be 104 Bde. This third "Logistic Support Brigade" is shown as having a secondary role as Regional HQ for the South of England area, giving it control over the variety of units which will be based there.

Differently from what i thought, however, a few parts of 104 Bde are going to be lost. I thought this would not happen, since 104 Brigade is unique in its nature, but 23 Pioneer is nonetheless being disbanded. 24 Movement Control and Postal & Courier Regt will also be lost. Evidently their capability was assessed deliverable under other means (contractors or reserves). The other two Logistic Brigades (101 and 102) will stay for sure, 101 supporting the Reaction Division and 102 supporting the Adaptable force, according to the Army document.  

17 Port and Maritime Regiment, thankfully, is safe. 

8 Regiment, a Transport regiment based in Germany, will disband. The loss of 19 CSS Battalion is no surprise, as it was the supporting unit of 19 Light Brigade, which is itself disbanded. 

1st and 2nd Logistic Support Regiments will be gone. 1st Regiment used to be the Divisional logistic element of 1st UK Division, but its role currently is direct support to briga of 1st and 3rd Division, even if their effective role is direct support to brigades. 2nd Regiment is the support element of 7th Armoured Brigade. 

The Army 2020 brochure gives the future regimental structure of the RLC as: 

1 Close Support Logistic Regiment [isn't 1st Regiment being cut?] 

2 Close Support Logistic Regiment [isn't 2nd Regiment being cut?]

6 Force Logistic Regiment

9 Force Logistic Regiment

10 Gurkha Logistic Regiment

12 Close Support Logistic Regiment

13 Air Assault Support Regiment

27 Theatre Logistic Regiment

7 Theatre Logistic Regiment 

29 Poastal and Courier Regiment 

17 Port and Maritime Regiment

11 EOD Regiment

The Army Brochure is good under many aspects, but i've located a problem: despite being in the list of units being cut, 1st and 2nd RLC regiments are also listed into the future regimental structure of the RLC for Army 2020.   

What is the right story?    

My interpretation is that the Close Support Logistic Regiments would go to the 3 Armored Brigades of Reaction. 13 Air Assault Support is obviously for 16AA brigade. 

While 101 and 102 Logistic brigades would each have 1 Theatre and 1 Force Logistic regiments. 

But we'd need to know what actually happens to 1st and 2nd regiments, obviously. 

Another little mystery is that there is no mention anywhere of the Commando Logistic Regiment. The Regiment is a Royal Marines formation, so it should be safe, but it is not clear if the RLC will continue to contribute to it. Probably, it will.  

The Engineers are losing 25 Regiment: no surprise, it had already been announced: it is being merged with 39 Regiment as both are in the Air Support role. I've extensively reported of this change in previous posts. 

No surprise is the loss of 38 Regiment either, as it was part of the disbanded 19 Light Brigade. 

The loss of 28 Regiment General Support is a whole different story. It is a large Germany-based regiment which includes the only Amphibious squadron of the Army, equipped with the M3 rigs, which have been mothballed until 2015. 

Like with the GMLRS case, my hope is that the loss of the regiment does not imply the loss of the one unique capability it offered. 

The Army is also divesting the 24 Commando Engineer Regiment, unfortunately. This regiment was stood up in 2008, with around 340 men, with the aim of expanding to over 500 by adding, in time, a second regular squadron. 

This squadron (56 Sqn) always remained only on paper, so the regiment effectively has only 54 HQ & Support Squadron, 59 Commando Engineer Squadron and the 131 Commando Squadron (Volunteers) from the TA. 

Now the Army will re-downgrade, down to the sole 59 Squadron plus 131(V) Commando Sqn.

My suggestion is for the Navy to make an effort in the next few years and take directly over the matter, funding the expansion to regiment itself and asking the RE only for help in the training aspect. Making the formation wholly Royal Marines owned, if not entirely Royal Marines manned, is the only way to have control over what is done to it. 

36 General Support Regiment is staying. Until 2015 it will be maily roled in EOD Search and Assurrance, but after that, hopefully, it will be able to be used as a "container" for specialist capabilities, namely Talisman and M3 rigs. It is what i've been proposing all along: retain a single General Support Regiment as centre of excellence for those particular capabilities that aren't used as often as the others, but that are invaluable when the moment comes. 

21, 22, 26, 32 and 35 Engineer Regiments are all staying as well, thankfully. No doubt they'll have to be restructured and made somewhat smaller, but keeping them all is an excellent news. The rule of the 5, as i prayed, is being respected in almost all fields, to enable future enduring operations. 

Safe are also 33 and 101 EOD regiments, 42 (Geographic) Regiment and 4 out of 5 regular Works Groups (62, 63, 64, 66). The 5th Group (65) is a Territorial Army unit, which i think will definitely stay. These specialized Works Groups are invaluable, providing great and much needed services, and it is great to see them safe. 

On the Royal Signals, i seem to be proven consistently right: all brigades will lose their Signal squadron, save for 16 Air Assault. The Army document in fact gives the composition of the force in Army 2020 as: 

1, 2, 3, 16, 21 Regiments (which will likely become Theatre Support regiments as i explained in my post yesterday) 

10, 14 (Electronic Warfare), 15 (Information Support), 22 and 30 Regiments

16° Air Assault HQ and Signal Squadron 

No reason to mention a specific brigade squadron if all other Sqns were staying. This is a cut by stealth. Units vanish, without it being announced.

The Regular component of the Medical Service are interesting: 

1, 2, 3 Armoured Medical Regiments - quite an easy guess what they are meant to do.

4, 5 Medical Regiments - These and the Field Hospitals will be in the Medical brigade along with reserve regiments, i think

16 Medical Regiment (16 Air Assault Brigade) 

22, 33, 34 Field Hospitals 

1st Military Working Dog Regiment, Royal Army Veterinary Corps

The Army Air Corps cut i've long been expecting and i've widely announced it in more than a post. With Wildcat numbers being so low, there was no way to stand up 5 Squadrons. As 1st and 9th Regiments are merged as 1 Regiment AAC, their combined 5 squadrons will become 3, probably. There will be just 30 Wildcat RECCE helicopters, and 6 will go to 847 Naval Air Service for Commando duties. That leaves 24 for the 1st AAC regiment, very few airframes to work with. 

The base at Dishfort will most likely be closed as the regiment relocated to Yeovilton, where Navy and Army will operate the Wildcat squadrons in close collaboration.

Before we take a look at the Army structure, let me say one thing: i'm immensely relieved by the look of things as announced. Even with the wrong note of the reduction of Engineer capability for 3rd Commando Brigade, and even with the fears for GMLRS and M3 capability, i can no doubt say that the relief is immense. 

I'm still full of worries because we don't know the details, the structures and capabilities of the regiments, but the picture is infinitely less scary than it appeared from the press reports. The cuts have been made with some real common sense, overall, at battalion/regiment level. 

Now we have to see what the cost was in terms of sizes and capability of each surviving formation, but retaining, for example, 5 artillery regiments plus specialist elements, 5 Engineer regiments plus specialist elements, is exactly what had to be done. I'm much relieved by the Army 2020 document, honestly. 

Army Structure for 2020 

The Army structure envisaged is surprisingly rational. It is well shown by this graphic: 

So, there will be 2 Divisions, the Reaction and the Adaptable divisions, each with their own 2-star HQ, both of which will apparently be deployable, at least to some degree. The newly created UK Support Command will also stay, and provide Command and Control for internal tasks and Homeland resilience. Each Division will have a Logistic Brigade in support, and deploying forces will "feed" from the centralized Force Troops to obtain the necessary support elements. In addition, there is Joint Helicopter Command (a 2-star HQ) and the Military Police, on three regiments grouped under a 1-star command.

We do not yet know the accurate make up of the brigades making up Force Troops, but i've given my idea for how they could be organized in yesterday's post, and i think i was substantially correct in my analysis.

Note the presence of a "Logistic Support" 1-star formation among the Force Troops: i think that, differently from what appeared in news reports, all 3 brigade commands in the RLC are staying. I think this one formation would be 104 Bde and would include 17 Regiment Port and Maritime.

The current Military Intelligence brigade has instead vanished, replaced by the "Intelligence and Surveillance" command, which in my opinion will bring together the 3 Intelligence Battalions and the UAV and STA regiments of the Royal Artillery.

1st Artillery Brigade will be modified, in my opinion, to contain the five surviving Fires regiments, plus the 2 air defence ones.

The Medical Brigade will in my opinion contain 4 and 5 Regiment (Regular), the regular Field Hospitals and the Reserve medical formations, while 1, 2, 3 and 16 Medical Regiments will stay attached directly to the Reaction Brigades.  

The Engineers regiments could all be centralized in the Engineer brigade, save for the regiment of 16 Air Assault Brigade and 59 Commando Squadron.

The Security Assistance Group is likely to be the new army branch for "upstream engagement" with foreign countries, and will be "feed" personnel and units from within the Adaptable brigades.

The Armored Brigades of the Reaction Division are very, very interesting.

The Armored Brigade will pack quite a punch

 

A new kind of Tank Regiment is adopted, the Type 56, which will have one Command and Recce Squadron (including two Challenger 2 and 8(?) Fres Scout vehicles) plus 3 Sabre Squadrons on 18 Challenger 2 tanks each.

The Recce Regiment will also have 3 Sabre squadrons, on FRES SV in the future, with each squadron having 16 vehicles. My gut feeling is that 12 of these vehicles will be Scouts, but 4 will be FRES SV Protected Mobility Vehicles carrying teams of 8 dismounts. We'll see if i'm right. Incorporating a number of APCs to increase the number of dismounts has been very common in Recce regiments in modern days, so i think i'm likely right.

The two Armoured Infantry Battalions will be roughly the same as today's ones, on three rifle companies, each with 14 vehicles plus the maneouvre support coy.

The third infantry battalion in the force is shown mounted on Mastiff, with the future vehicle for them indicated in the FRES UV, which was confirmed as part of the Core Budget and which will (hopefully) enter service in the middle 2020s. Here is the confirmation that Mastiff will stay post-Afghanistan.

As i expected, there is no organic artillery or engineer formation: these will be sourced from Force Troops prior to deployment.

There is no information on the structure of the various Infantry Brigades, and we don't know if 16 Air Assault will drop down to 3 battalions or if 5 SCOTS battalion will be replaced into the brigade by another one. In any case, there will be 2.5  to 2.7 regular infantry battalions for each of the 7 Infantry Brigades. Most brigades will end up with 3, and some with 2, i'm guessing.

An unspecified number of Light Cavalry regiments (mounted on Jackal vehicles) will be part of the Adaptable Division. There is 4 TA armour regiments that could provide the basis for such formations, and there is no indication of how the Army will use the 4th Regular Tank regiment and 4th Regular Recce Regiment. They might be re-roled as Light Cavalry, even if my expectation is that the 4th Tank Regiment will serve as Training and Demonstration regiment (perhaps with one squadron, as has been done so far with A Sqn, 1RTR) and Crew Replacement Unit (with the other two squadrons, allowing the TA formations currently in this role to assume new roles). This is, however, only my personal view.

We are shown, however, a promising example of Brigade-sized formation sourced from the Adaptable Division: this formation is shown with a Regular Light Cavalry regiment (on three Sabre Squadrons with 16 Jackals each) paired with an equal regiment of Reserves. 

Similarly, there are 2 Regular infantry battalions, augmented by 2 Reserve battalions. One Regular and one Reserve infantry battalions are shown mounted in Foxhound protected vehicles.  

The Reserve will lose a "small" number of units because of merges, re-roling and restructuring, as the TA's structure is reorganized and its trained strength increased to 30.000. A number of Regional Brigades HQs are also going to vanish, but details on this part of the Army restructuring will only arrive later on, along with the updated Basing plan.

For now, there is only a map showing the notional geographic distribution of the major commands of the Army.

To the left, the new map relative to Army 2020. To the right, a map of the current Regional Brigades.

Assuming that the Army will want to make the fewest possible changes to save time and money, we can assume that the Irish 38 Brigade will stay, along with 51st (Scotland), 160 (Wales), 42 (North West), 15 (North East), 49 (East). However, the Army might well decide to save the badges of the 2 current regular brigades that will be "lost" as the thick of the regular component is concentrated in the 3 armored formations.

The London Based Brigade [South brigade?] might be given a whole new identity as the current regional brigade HQs based in Southern England, (145, 43, 2) are disbanded//merged. 11 Brigade, which was also re-formed in recent years for a tour in Afghanistan, might be a possible identity, or one of the three regional badges going will be used instead.  

143 Regional Brigade HQ is also likely to go, judging from the map at least.  

In conclusion

We do not have all the answers yet. Arguably, some new questions have come up, such as "what about GMLRS?", but we do have an indication of what's being done, finally, and it luckily is not nearly as bad as it risked being.

The day of doom has, fortunately, been less terrible than feared. Even though, of course, it won't feel this way to a lot of personnel in the Army who found out that their unit will be disbanded. They have my understanding: it's a shame that this has to happen, and i regret each and every redundancy and disbandment to come. 

But at least, for the Army itself, the picture is not one of total gloom as feared. The structure is almost identical to what i painted yesterday in my article.

Now we need to get some more detail over the composition of the Artillery and Engineer regiments that remain, and know more about the Force Troops, to make ourselves a real idea. 

And of course, for it to really work, we need the Reserves boost plan to be successful. And this is probably the biggest challenge of the Army 2020 plan.

Reserves boost 

From Philip Hammond's written statement of today, 5 July 2011: 

To achieve the redesign of the Army required by Army 2020 will require us to expand the volunteer Army Reserve to 30,000 trained strength and better to integrate the Regular and Reserve components of the future Army. Army 2020 has defined the Army Reserves’ role and we are establishing more predictable scales of commitment in the event that Reserves are committed to enduring operations.

In the past, the Reserve was essentially designed to supplement the Regular Army; in future, the Reserve will be a vital part of an integrated Army. The principle of greater integration was established in the Commission’s report and, based on their findings, our concept for Army Reserves sees them ready and able to deploy routinely at sub-unit level and in some cases as formed units. They will be trained, equipped and supported accordingly. Officers and soldiers will have command opportunities which have not always been available in the recent past.

The process of reshaping the Reserves for their future role has already begun: we are recruiting Reserves now for all three Services. The Army has started overseas Reserve training exercises at company level (26 this year, and increasing in number significantly by 2015); we are putting in place routine partnered training of Army Reserve and Regular units, including for operational deployments.

More equipment is arriving in the form of modern support vehicles, the Wolf Land
Rover and Bowman radios. We plan that, over time, the personal equipment of Reservists will be on a par with that used by Regulars. The greater reliance on the Reserve envisaged in Future Force 2020, and the additional £1.8Bn over 10 years that we have committed to the Reserves, ensures that Reservists will receive the kit and the training they need.

But in exchange we expect them to commit to specific amounts of training time and, for the Army in most cases, to accept a liability for up to 6 months deployed service, plus pre-deployment training, in a five year period, dependent on operational demand. There will be opportunities for shorter periods of deployed service commitment for those in some specialist roles.

The Navy’s Maritime Reserves will expand to a trained strength of 3,100 to deliver a greater range and depth of capability, within its well established and integrated model, to provide individual augmentees to the Royal Navy and Royal Marines in specialist and generalist roles. Key areas of growth will be in a range of command and communication, intelligence and surveillance disciplines, including cyber, support to the Fleet Air Arm and the exploitation of niche capabilities in the role of maritime security. The aim is to build Maritime Reserves that are fully integrated and able to provide the Naval Service with a range of flexible manpower, including greater access to civilian skills. The expansion will be supported by an infrastructure programme to provide modern
and efficient training facilities.

The Royal Auxiliary Air Force (RAuxAF) provides resilience and strength in depth to the Royal Air Force contribution to Defence capability by providing individual augmentees to Regular Forces. It will grow to a trained strength of 1,800. The principal growth will be in the specialist areas of logistics, flight operations, medical, intelligence, media, RAF Police and cyber; individual augmentees will be trained to a sufficient standard to be fully integrated with the Regulars as part of the Whole Force Concept.

Five new Reserve Squadrons will be established:

No 502(Ulster) Squadron will form at JHC Station Aldergrove;

611(West Lancashire) Squadron will form in Liverpool;

614(West Glamorgan) Squadron will form in South Wales, most likely at RAF St Athan.

These squadrons will be general service support squadrons representing various trades and branches from within the RAF.

At RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire, 2624(County of Oxford) Squadron will re-form in the force protection role and 622 Squadron will stand-up as the Reserve unit for aircrew augmenting the RAF’s air mobility force.

The Regular Component of the RAF Regiment is expected to shrink by 2 Field Squadrons come 2015, leaving 6 squadrons plus the Defence CBRN Wing (26 and 27 Squadrons).

Is is the end of even the name "Territorial Army"? Army Reserve seems to be the new term. Let's just hope it can be made to work.


As additional information, in the last few months the Territorial Army has seen some of its units re-subordinated to major regular HQs, in particular:

4 PARA (V)
2 Royal Irish (V)

have been re-surbodinated to Joint Helicopter Command, and now are the (integrated) reserve element of 16 Air Assault brigade.
In exchange the brigade might not be given a replacement 4th maneuver battalion when 5 Scots is downgraded to Public Duty company. It is not yet evident.

Honourable Artillery Company
101 (V) Royal Artillery
104 (V) Royal Artillery
106 (V) Royal Artillery

have moved under Theatre Troops, the command now apparently due to re-name as Force Troops. The HAC provides reinforcement patrols to Sphynx battery, Special Observation Posts.
101 (V) is the GMLRS reserve regiment (2 batteries) and also has 2 Surveillance and Target Acquisition (STA) batteries for supplementing 5 Regiment RA.
104 (V) is a drone reserve battalion, if the plan does not change it will support 32 and 47 RA in their Watchkeeper role.
106 (V) is a reserve Air Defence formation on both Rapier and Starstreak.

Also under Theatre Troops moved:

151 RLC (V)
155 RLC (V)
159 RLC (V)
Scottish Transport Regiment

Some of these units might be re-assigned or even re-roled in the coming years, though, as the new Army Reserve structure is rolled out.

Towards the Army Cuts announcements: some points in time

19 October 2010 - the SDSR is published. The Army gets a cut of 7000 men, from a force of roughly 102.000 regulars to 95.000 by 2015, with a 94.000 strong regular army envisioned for 2020.  

According to sources such as Jane's and RUSI, the MOD's advice had been to cut the Army back to 82.000 in order to balance the books, but the government rejected the call at this stage in time because the measure was seen as too politically white hot to present with Afghanistan ops still going on full force.

The cuts fall hard on the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force instead: in the very last few days of the planning process, it is decided that Tornado GR4 has to stay, Harrier goes, and STOVL is abandoned even for the future.

November 2010 - Brigadier Nick Eeles, Director Royal Artillery, announces to the force that:

It is inevitable that there will be changes to the Royal Artillery force structure. The SDSR made it clear that we will reduce the AS90 fleet to 95 guns (from 146) as the Army transitions towards a lighter force profile. In the future each of the five multi role brigades will be supported by a close support regiment equipped with a mix of Light Gun and AS90. No decisions on the future size of the TA have been made under SDSR and a six-month review will now be undertaken into the role and structure of the Reserves. It should be emphasised that the TA remain critical to success on current operations and will form a key element of Gunner structures to deliver integrated support to future operations.

December 2010 - Royal Artillery announcements of the restructuring of its regiments and formation of the UAV force:

Thus the decision was taken earlier this year that 47 Regt RA should be re-subordinated to 1 Arty Bde as a UAS regiment, and 12 Regt RA should revert to being solely a CAD regiment [In recent years the regiment had deployed personnel to Afghanistan to operate UAS] (remaining within 1 (UK) Armd Div). Subsequent work, which is still subject to HQLF approval, will see 32 Regt RA (currently Tactical UAS) and 47 Regt RA (currently Mini UAS) restructured to become two integrated UAS regiments; each will contain integrated batteries comprising both Mini and Tactical UAS. The intent is to replicate, in barracks and in training, the integrated UAS structure deployed in Afghanistan. The resulting batteries are large and to create the five deployable batteries needed to meet harmony guidelines will require the combined resources of the eight equipment batteries currently within the two regiments. Three batteries will therefore be placed into suspended animation, although all the soldiers will be redistributed within the two regiments.

The five batteries are intended to line a number of Watchkeeper (Tactical UAS), Desert Hawk 3 (mini UAS) Detachments (possibly 12 in each battery, with each DH3 detachment numbering 5 men) and T-HAWK detachments (should be 3 per battery). The T-Hawk is a part of the Talisman route clearance system and was initially used by Royal Engineer personnel. It was however found more efficient to give control of all army UAS to a specialized force within the Royal Artillery.  

July 2011 - The results of the "3 months study" into the MOD books are announced: unsurprisingly, the deletion of Harrier, Type 22s and Nimrod have proven far from sufficient to bring the balance under control. Further manpower cuts are necessary, and they have to come from the Army: the revised plan adds 5000 more posts to be cut to the 7000 already announced, as the Army is now required to go down to 89 / 90.000 by 2015 and 82.000 by 2020.

The improvements to the structure and employment of reserves is announced as part of the move. By 2020 it is promised that army strength will be 120.000, inclusive of 30.000 trained reservists.

July 2011 - Royal Artillery restructuring continues with new changes announced:

In recognition of the high demand for fire support teams, the tactical groups from the disbanded close support regiment (40 Regt) will move to reinforce other close support regiments. In addition, transformational Army Structures work recognised that our specialist MLRS and STA regiments are under-resourced and should each grow or reorganise to five equipment batteries for each capability, thereby allowing for longer intervals between operational tours for the officers and soldiers involved. The outcome is five mirror image composite unmanned air systems batteries, three in 32 Regt RA and two in 47 Regt RA (the latter having lost its close air defence role) which meant that earlier this year three batteries, 42 (Alem Hamza) Bty RA, 43 Bty (Lloyd’s Company) RA and 25/170 (Imjin) Bty RA went into suspended animation.

After the demise of these three fine batteries, HQ Land recently granted permission to raise one new battery in 5 Regt RA equipped with weapon locating radars and sound ranging, and one new battery in 39 Regt RA equipped with MLRS. These are 93 (Le Cateau) Bty RA and 51 (Kabul 1842) Bty RA respectively and these batteries are currently being taken out of suspended animation.

August 2011 - The head of the Royal Artillery announces the details of changes in the regiment:

40 Regiment Royal Artillery is to disband, with hopes for a farewell parade in April 2012

6/36 (Arcot 1751) Battery, from 40 Regiment, is reassigned as Tac Group Battery to 4 Regiment Royal Artillery, by April 2012

38 (Seringapatam) Battery is assigned as Tac Group Battery to 19 Regiment RA. Transfered from 40 Regiment are also all the scottish symbols and hetos, as 19 Regiment now is the Scottish artillery regiment, incorporating both Lowlands and Highlands traditions.

By April 2012, 5 batteries of AS90 guns, one in each regiment, are re-roled to L118 Light Gun as number of AS90 howitzers is brought down to 95

By November 2012, 137 (Java) Tac Group Battery will resubordinate to 26 Regiment Royal Artillery  

19 September 2011 - First wave of Royal Signals restructuring announcements:

12 (National Communications) Signals brigade to disband after the Olympics are over, and with it the brigade's involvement in the security and support to the event. Work is underway to decide which of the commanded units of the brigade survive, how they are restructured, and how they are re-assigned to 1st and 11th Signal Brigades.  

7 Signals Regiment disbands by mid 2012, after completing its role as Campaign Signal Regiment to augment the Signals force in Afghanistan.

Early 2013 is to see 19 Light Brigade's HQ closed down, along with its Signal Squadron, 209 Sqn.

The Unified System Support Organisation, based in Blandford has been steadily growing in size and importance. It has a critical role providing expert Level 3 support to deployed information and communication services across Defence, and provides a combination of deployed and ‘reachback’ support. On 30th September 2011 it was re-titled 15th Signal Regiment (Information Support) and established fully as a Royal Signals Unit, albeit with very joint manning and roles.

In the last few months it emerged that 14 Regiment (Electronic Warfare) is being expanded 8% to an establishment of some 750 men.

Some change at the highest ranks as well, and warning from the Director Royal Signals that this is only the start.

November 2011 - First announcements for changes in the Royal Engineers

25 Air Support Regiment to disband by 31 March 2012 at the latest. Squadrons re-assigned to 39 Regiment

39 Regiment to move into RAF Kinloss during the summer of 2012

HQ 12 (Air Support) Engineer Group [44 men] moves into RAF Wittering in 2013

38 Regiment will disband together with 19 Light Brigade, which it supported.

Some considerations and numbers and guesses:

All of the support components of 19 Light Brigade are going:

40 Royal Artillery Regiment

209 Squadron Royal Signals

38 Royal Engineers Regiment

19 Combat Service Support Battalion

How many more formations will go, is very hard to say.

Arguably, in almost all trades there is no more room for cuts if 5 brigades are to be maintained, and fully kitted. The Royal Artillery is already restructuring on 5 Fires Regiments, so there really is no room for further cuts.

But as the Telegraph suggests that most of the AS90 howitzers will be mothballed (at least 51 have been, post SDSR, and of those remaining many will be in Controlled Humidity Storage most of the time under Whole Fleet Management) or used by reserves, my guess is that one of two AS90 batteries planned in each brigade artillery regiment will be assigned to TA personnel. It would be a first, since currently the TA does not work with the AS90.

I sincerely hope the cut is something of this kind: no regular AS90 batteries would, in my pessimistic/realistic view make it very hard to think about sending AS90 in battle again. With all my good will and with all the confidence i can muster, i still have doubts about how much the TA will effectively be made capable to deploy on the field in significant, formed units. I'd very much avoid putting whole capabilities and forces into reserve, personally.

What else could be cut?

Well, the additional batteries of 39 Regiment and perhaps even 5 Regiment. With the excuse of "contingency ops" opposed to enduring operations, the hard gained expansions in strength just enacted might be cancelled again, and leave both regiments again overstretched the next time they are called in action.

It wouldn't surprise me. But i hope it can be avoided.

I don't even want to think about cutting the UAS batteries, even though we could get a bitter surprise or two in 2015, if Desert Hawk 3 and/or T-Hawk were not brought into core budget despite their usefulness.

An area where there is possibly some maneuver space for cuts is 12 Regiment and 16 regiment, the air defence force.

I judge it feasible to merge the two regiments, forming a single air defence formation on 5 Batteries, each with a Rapier troop for local area defence and the second troop would have Starstreak for Low Level Air Defence - very short range.

The Royal Engineers might be in even worse difficulty, if the Telegraph is to be believed. The Telegraph talks of a 30% cut, down to an establishment of 5500. In early 2011, however, the strength of the Engineers (Regular Reserve included, however) was 9660, however, so the figures do not quite add up.

The Engineers are already shelving a couple of regiments (even though most of 25 Regt manpower just moves under another RHQ) and making other adjustements, but cutting formations will be very complex, unless not all of the brigades are granted an engineer complement.

And i hope this is not the case because it does not make sense.

A current Royal Engineers regiment on 3 Armoured Squadrons has an establishment of some 644 (REME personnel and other trades from other Army branches included, i believe), all-ranks, all-trades. And there already are only 5, exactly the number that is needed.

With a smaller deployable Army there might be scope to downsize all five regiments to a degree, perhaps even cut them down to 2 squadrons each, instead of 3, but will it be enough?

The engineer regiment of 16 Air Assault brigade counts 543 posts, 375 of which are for parachute trained personnel. Some trimming is likely to be achievable, and almost certainly will be inevitable.

24 Commando Royal Engineers Regiment likely will never see its second field squadron stand up, and as it is it already is the smallest of regiments in the Corps. There really is no room to touch this.

28 Engineer regiment, one of the two General Support Regiments, has an establishment of 850 [probably includes the TA personnel of 412 (V) Troop as well, though, and possibly the 110-strong REME LAD).

36 General Support Regiment has 5 squadrons as of now (2 are Gurkha) and has assumed the role of High Assurrance Search regiment to aid in the battle against IEDs in Afghanistan. I don't know what its head count is, but is likely to be even higher than 28 Regt's.

It is arguable that, by 2014, with Afghanistan over and the Army becoming much smaller, one single General Support Regiment could do, assigned to the sole deployable division HQ. In my view said regiment should be about preserving specialized capabilities available on demand, so a possible structure could be:

·         1 Amphibious Squadron (with M3 rigs and other kit)

·         at least 1 Route Clearance Squadron (preserving the expensive and effective Talisman equipment set and related skills for meeting future needs)

·         1 Search squadron, keeping alive the experience and skills gained with years of high risk, high cost operations

·         and another Squadron, more general in nature, ready for tasking where and when necessary

Again, will it be enough?

REME chapter, again, very little room for cuts. With 19 Light Brigade's REME formation gone, there's just the indispensable 5 + 1 Battalions, one for each MRB plus 7th Battalion (Air Assault) which serves the AAC helicopter fleet and 16 Air Assault brigade.

In addition, there's two mixed regular/TA battalions, one in each of the two logistic brigades.

There does not seem to be any room for cutting further battalions, but i guess all of them will be downsized. A number of Light Aid Detachments will also go along with the units they support, and that is:

90 men for each Armoured Infantry Battalion cut [9 to 6 or 5, so i'd say at least 270 men]

115 for a Royal Artillery Regiment [probably an AS90 one, an L118 regiment like 40 RA probably has a significantly smaller LAD]

Up to 160 men in the LAD of air defence regiments [assuming something on the lines of the merge i proposed happens]

75 on average in each RLC regiment

60 in a Signals regiment

85 in a close support engineer regiment [38 Royal Engineers, cut along with 19 Light Brigade]

And so along.

Royal Armoured Corps and Cavalry regiments chapter. In theory, we are waiting for a tank regiment and a recce regiment in each MRB. In practice, the Telegraph article suggests that this plan might have had to be abandoned, but we'll have to wait and see.

Two Squadrons coming from 1RTR are almost certainly doomed as soon as they come back from Afghanistan involvement, after they have been pushed out of the CBRN regiment with the Fuchs vehicles being retired. A Squadron 1RTR however will stay almost certainly: the training Squadron is likely to be still needed after all, no?

All other tank regiments are, at best, being downsized. A Type 44 regiment counts 550 men, including some 120 REME, but i think at best we'll have Type 38 regiments, even smaller.

The Telegraph talks of tanks going to the reserves, again, but this could mean anything. It might be that the regiments become mixed, say, with 2 regular and 1 TA squadrons.

Or all five tank regiments are cut and small formations of tanks added to the 5 Recce regiments, or other solutions still. Hard to say.  

The Recce regiments should not change, at least in theory. Plan is for 3 squadrons, two mounted in FRES Scout and 1 in a wheeled UOR-to-core vehicle, which is expected to be Jackal.

The Household Cavalry Regiment is said to be off-limits and safe from cuts, but i have doubts about this meaning that the 4-squadron establishment stays. Currently HCR is the only recce regiment on 3 Sabre Sqns, since D Sqn is available for tasking with 16 Air Assault brigade. In future, who knows.

The REME have around 90 men in each Recce regiment. The number might drop lower.

Royal Logistic Corps chapter: the Telegraph suggests a cut from 15.240 men (early 2011) to around 12.000, and this, to my eyes, looks... out of place. I very well might be wrong, but i think in the RLC, more than in armour or artillery fields, there is space to expand the roles given to reserves, and there is arguably more room to make cuts.

Also, with the army dropping to so much lower numbers, to a single deployable divisional HQ and much less ambitious planning assumptions are 12.000 men in the logistics sector still required? Seems oversized to me.

I'd very much personally try to find solutions here, instead of chopping severely artillery, armour and engineers.  

A last consideration i want to make is on the Corps of Army Music.

Please, don't take it as an offence, as personal hostility or anything. But 24 bands, and 790 men (as of early 2011)? No way when cuts as dangerous and damaging as those currently being enacted are a reality.

790 men is more than a whole Armoured Infantry battalion inclusive of REME personnel and all other components.

It just can't do.