MARS FT: here at last!

425 millions committed to acquire 4 MARS Fleet Tankers to replace the current ancient, single-hulled tankers of the RFA. Better than expected, since it was widely anticipated that the order would only be for two vessels, with two options for subsequent orders of 2 more in a 2+1+1 fashion. 

True, once MARS FT had to deliver 6 tankers, but it was a whole different time, and the fleet was much more consistent than today. Sadly, because it is another reminder of the massive shrinkage suffered in the years. 

The winning bidder has been selected in Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering (DSME), South Korea. DSME will build the four hulls, which will be kitted out by british companies, which will get some 150 million pounds in orders, comprising, according to the MOD: 

- £90m on UK contracts for the provision of key equipment, systems, design and support services. The winning design is being provided by UK company BMT Defence Services 

- £60m investment in the UK from customisation, trials and specialist engineering support.

The MARS tankers are described as being more than 200 meters long, displacing 37.000 tons and fitted with helicopter facilities, consisting of flight deck and hangar for a Merlin helicopter. The first vessel will be in service by 2016, with the others entering service at yearly intervals. Details of the design are available from BMT here.

The MARS FT design is an adaptation of the Aegir 26 design, slightly enlarged. The Aegir 26, shorter than 200 meters long, has a capacity of 24.000 cubic meters of fluids. They are also likely to have some significant space for solid stores, as even the much smaller Aegir 18 type has a 400 cubic meters hold.  
Propulsion will be entirely Diesel, on two shafts.
BAE should be involved as well to some degree, since BMT, DSME and BAE teamed up for pursuing the MARS FT contract back in 2008. 

Apart from the abeam RAS and refueling stations, MARS FT will be fitted for, but not with a stern fuel delivery reel.

In terms of solid RAS capability, the MARS FT will be able to move pallets weighting 2 tons.

This means that Rolls Royce will have to wait to provide its latest Replenishment At Sea system, capable of moving pallets of 5 tons each (compared to 2 tons now). The Rolls Royce RAS kit has already been ordered for installation in a new land training facility being built for the RN at  HMS Raleight base and including simulacres of both a Type 23 frigate and a Type 45 destroyer's RAS stations, to enable high-fidelity training. 

The aim of the new RAS system is to be able to transfer up to 25 five-tonne pallets/loads per hour while two ships are steaming no more than 50 metres (165ft) apart, travelling at 10kts, by day and night, in all but the most extreme weather conditions. This new RAS system will be central to the future part of MARS, the Solid Support program which is to deliver solid replenishers to replace the "Fort I class", but this is still relatively far away in time (the "Fort I" class includes Fort Rosalie and Fort Austin. The latter was put in reserve and mothballed in 2009, but following the SDSR it is being re-activated and entered port for refit in late may last year at Birkenhead. Both will carry on into the 2020s). 

Unless there are changes announced in the future (entirely possible) it seems that for the tankers two tons are judged sufficient. The MARS FT will mostly only supply pallets of supplies, principally food, and drums of lubricant oils. Like the Wave Class, they are to carry a variety of loads, including 8 20'' containers for food pallets. 

They will have a crew of 63 and accommodation for a further 46 men. In the BMT image they are shown rather heavily armed (2 x Phalanx CIWS and 2 DS30 30 mm gun mounts are visible) but of course, the CIWS will be "fitted for but not with", as with the Waves. 

Winner: BMT design has been selected, but the hulls will be built in South Korea. If the 400 millions price is respected, we are looking at an excellent deal for real. Image from BMT.

The MARS FT will represent a dramatic improvement in RFA capabilities: it is enough to mention that the small Rover tankers have a flight deck but no hangar and are only 16.000 tons. 

RFA Orangeleaf is larger (40.000 tons) but has no helicopter facilities at all. 

It is not clear if the last remaining Auxiliary Oiler, RFA Fort Victoria, also single-hulled, will be retired early and replaced by the fourth MARS FT, but i guess it is quite likely. Fort Victoria (pennant A387) is the last remain of the "Fort II" class of auxiliary oilers. Her sister, Fort George (A388) was retired following the SDSR and decommissioned in April 2011.

Overall, this is excellent, excellent news. It was a long wait, but this is a very important day for the Royal Navy. And for the Carrier Enabled Power Projection program, of which MARS FT is a very fundamental part, along with navalized Merlin, JCA and CVF. 

Value for money

The price does seem to be quite damn good. According to Defense Industry Daily, the cost of MARS FT is projected at 602 million pounds (452 for buying the hulls from Korea, and around 150 to be spent in the UK for completing the vessels for service). However, according to the government statement in parliament, instead, it would appear that the contract is worth 452 millions (of which 90 go to UK companies), plus some 60 more millions to be spent on design work and fitting of the ships for british service. This would mean 512 millions in total.
The government has specified that the contract includes 2 years of spare parts, training and support. 

The only suitable term of paragon in fact is the Indian purchase of the INS Deepak from Italy's Fincantieri. The vessel is 175 meters long and 25 wide and weights some 27.000 tons (so it is in fact considerably smaller than MARS FT at 200.9 meters long and 28.6 wide and 37.000 tons). She does have a maximum speed of 20 knots and more accommodations, while MARS will be slower (i expect something like 15 to 18 knots speed. The Aegir design has a max sustainable speed of 18 knots, possibly MARS FT will have it too), but she is overall comparable. She carries some 510 tons of solid cargo. MARS FT, one would expect, will have larger space for solid cargo, seen the much larger size and inferior number of berths, but we will see at some point in the future. Almost certainly the british berths will be much larger and more comfortable: the RN has been trying to give its crews very good living conditions in modern times, and significantly beats other navies in this aspect, even though it comports a space and cost penalty.

Deepak did cost 159.326 million euro, of which 20,81 millions in spare parts. The larger british ships would seem set to cost 150.5 million pounds each in the worst case (602 millions as said by Defense Industry Daily).
Even considering the exchange rate between pound and euro, the deal would still be very good.

Also because Deepak was delivered in 2010, and inflation has not been still in these years!


The Royal Fleet Auxiliary situation, today and tomorrow

So, where does MARS FT fit, and where does it bring us?
Today, the RFA lines a fleet of tankers and replenishers that include: 


- Wave class Fast Fleet Tankers
        Wave Knight A389
        Wave Ruler  A390 


These tankers are double-hulled, and thus meet the current International Maritime Organisation legislation for protecting the environment. They have extensive aviation facilities with a large one spot flight deck, hangar and maintenance facilities capable of supporting two Merlin helicopters and can carry an additional eight refrigerated 20’ containers when needed, for food and other supplies.

They have a cargo capacity of 16,000 cubic metres for fluids, which include 3,000 cubic metres of aviation fuel, 380 cubic metres of fresh water, with the capacity to produce 100 cubic meters of potable water per day, 500 cubic metres of dry cargo and 125 tons of lubricating oils. They are well capable to defend themselves with a defensive fit which includes 30mm cannons and the ability to receive two Phalanx CIWS. They can sustain a task group speed of 18 knots.

Their crew numbers 74, with room for an additional 26 Marines, weapon operators and aviation crews from the RN. They both commissioned during 2003 and have a long life ahead of them.


Fort I and Fort II classes   

The Fort Rosalie or "Fort I" class includes two vessels: Fort Rosalie - A385 (born Fort Grange, renamed in 2000 to avoid confusion with the new Fort George) and Fort Austin - A386. 

RFA Fort Rosalie

 
The two ships entered service in 1978 and 1979 and were involved in the Falklands war. They are fleet replenishers carrying solid stores in four huge holds. They will carry anything from food to nuclear weapons (in the Cold War days they did, anyway) which they can deliver to other vessels with their cranes or by VERTREP. They have two flight decks for this (one landing spot being on top of the hangar) and facilities for up to 4 medium helicopters, once Sea Kings and now Merlins. 

The "Fort II" or Fort Victoria class is a follow-on class, much more recent, of two vessels combining the functions of a fleet support tanker and a stores support ship. The ships have the capacity to carry a cargo of up to 6,250m³ of solids stores plus 12,500m³ of liquids.Fort Victoria - A387 and Fort George - A388 entered service in 1994.
They have a two-spots deck and facilities for up to 5 Merlin helicopters, RAS stations capable of moving two-tons pallets, and replenishment rigs port, starboard and stern.

RFA Fort Victoria

Ironically, despite being much more recent and brilliant in design under many points of view, the Fort II ships are single-hulled, and they have now ended up losing ground to their older sisters.
Fort George was retired in the SDSR, and i suspect that Fort Victoria might follow with an early demise as MARS FT and Fort Austin come into service.  


RFA Orangeleaf   A110

Last of the Leaf class after Bayleaf was retired as part of the SDSR10. The ship began life as a merchant vessel, MV Balder, London, before joining the RFA Fleet as a support tanker. She had a major refit in 1985 which fitted her with gantries and other equipment, enabling her to carry out replenishment at sea (RAS). She is a single-hull tanker with a cargo capacity of 22,000 cubic metres of diesel, 3,800 cubic metres of Avcat (aviation fuel) and a limited capacity for refrigerated and general naval stores.
She has no aviation capabilities at all, but has a couple of old 20 mm guns and machine guns for self defence.

It is worth noticing that the "Leaf class" never was a real, homogeneous class of ships, since each Leaf was a civilian ship taken up for RFA service, and there weren't two identical. Orangeleaf is the second largest ship in the class, with the largest having been Oakleaf, which was retired in 2009. Other vessels in the class could be half as big as Orangeleaf despite being in the same class.


Rover class Light Fleet Tankers

Gold Rover A271
Black Rover A273


Last of the Rover class, these tankers of 16.000 tons were Admiralty-designed and built to replenish RN ships with fuel, oil, aviation fuel, lubricants, fresh water and a limited amount of dry cargo and refrigerated stores. They can carry parcels as required of stores and supplies, including 340 tones of dry cargo including munitions and refrigerated stores. They are capable of fuelling a ship abeam or astern with automatic tensioning winches and two-ton stores jackstays. They are also fitted with a large, single spot flight deck for night and day operation, but without a hangar.

Tomorrow 

"Tomorrow", which means, of course, the year 2016 and beyond, the fleet will work with the 2 Waves and 4 MARS FT, plust Fort Rosalie and Fort Austin. In theory, Fort Victoria will be there too, but as i said i think there are pretty clear indications that she will be retired once MARS FT comes online. 

The 4 MARS FT are going to be a bit larger than the Waves and larger than even Fort Victoria, even if being tankers, they will have a different design and carry less stores than her. They will also be a bit smaller than Orangeleaf, but they will be behemoths compared to the Rovers. 

We are looking at ships with a capacity, in terms of fuels, higher than that of the Waves and Fort Victoria and, of course, of the Rovers. In terms of stores, the MARS FT will almost certainly match and probably overcome the Waves in capacity.
Each will also come with smaller crews than even the modern Waves, and more ready accommodations for embarked forces of Marines or other personnel, enhancing their ability to cover multiple types of mission and tasks.
All of the MARS FT will also have helicopter facilities probably as good as the Wave's. 

The loss of Fort Victoria would be more than balanced by the re-entry in service of Fort Austin alongside the MARS FT. In terms of helicopter hangars and decks, we go from: 

Current: hangar space for 11 helicopters (1 on each Wave, 5 on Fort Victoria, 4 on Fort Rosalie) and 6 fly decks. 

to: 

Future: hangar space for 14 helicopters (1 on each tanker Waves included, 4 on each of the two Fort I ships) and 8 flying decks. 

Fuel capacity is also greatly increased, as is stores capacity. The number of vessels is maintained. 
For a battlegroup, however, a dual-role ship such as Fort Victoria would of course be useful, since it would enable to keep back a tanker and a stores ships, assigning these only in case of need, instead of having to assign one ship of each kind to a battlegroup leaving Britain even just for an exercise. 


The 6-ships MARS FT concept did indeed include such a large CVF support vessel intended to be part of the carrier task group, but really, i think there is no room for complaints for once. The RFA and Royal Navy get an excellent deal out of MARS FT, even if i'm right and Fort Victoria vanishes.

I'm impressed. 
Did the government finally get the message of sea power and carrier strike then? I sure hope it has. It looks like it has. 

PAAMS progresses

The PAAMS, the famous tri-national missile program a variant of which is the Sea Viper used on the Royal Navy's Type 45, is still progressing and evolving to this day. Lately, three news in particular have caught my eye: 

Anti-Ballistic SAMPSON - BAE Systems has started testing activity on an ABM variant of the SAMPSON (Type 1054 for the RN) radar used by Sea Viper. The activity is carried out at the Cowes center, on the island of Wight, and is the follow-on to a previous Design Definition Phase concluded in March last year, and to a first series of tests carried out with the Advanced Radar Technology Test Bed. 

The study is part of a series of activities carried out under direction of the Missile Defence Centre (MDC), an alliance between MOD and industry that started in 2003. Scope of this body is to research, develop and monitor the evolution of threats and solutions in the Ballistic Missile field. For the moment, the MOD does not plan to acquire a missile-shield or an anti-ballistic capability for the Type 45, but the door is being kept open, and studies are being done to enable a smooth change of policy anytime in the future. 

The current tests at Cowes will eventually conclude with trials of detection and tracking of satellites in high orbit. 

The SAMPSON is only installed on the six Type 45 destroyers, which also mount the Thales S-1850M long-range radar (Type 1046 for the Navy). The S-1850M is a variant of the SMART-L radar from Thales Nederland, also used on the french and italian Horizons, on the German F124 air defence frigates and on the De Zeven Provinciën frigates of the Netherlands navy. The SMART-L itself has anti-ballistic tracking capability, with tests ongoing ever since 2006. For the SMART-L series of radars, General Dynamics last year released a self-funded X-band radar datalink that enables the existing radar to guide an american SM-3 anti-ballistic missile, making 10 warships in Europe (three German F124 frigates, three Danish patrol vessels and four Dutch ADCF frigates) practically "ABM-ready". 

So far none has funded purchase of the SM-3 missile, but the possibility exists. 

The Type 45 and Horizon destroyers of UK, France and Italy could also get an ABM role, they would need to be touched up more consistently: the Sylver A50 cells are too short for SM-3, and the missile is currently not integrated into Sylver launchers, so even adoption of the A70 cells would not solve the problem. 

The Type 45 could however in any moment embark 16 additional missile cells, of the MK41 type, and in "Strike Lenght" (7 meters deep, in other words) in order to fit SM-3 and Tomahawk missiles. 

For now, the dutch will only upgrade the radars. In the meanwhile, 4 US Arleigh Burke destroyers with ABM capability and SM-3 missiles are being forward-based in Europe, in the port of Rota, Spain, to provide initial missile defence. 

By 2015, semi-mobile launcher towers and radars derived from the naval system ("Aegis Ashore") are planned to be deployed on land in Romania, and by 2018 a second site should go online in Poland.

SAMP-T demonstrates capability - The SAMP-T is the land variant of PAAMS. It is an air defence missile system employing the Arabel radar and the Aster 30 missile (no Aster 15 is employed on land). It is being acquired by Italy and France, and is competing for exports in several countries, including Turkey. 

On 1st December 2011, a SAMP-T trial saw the successful interception by an Aster 30 missile of a Black Sparrow target. The Black Sparrow is an israeli target missile built to simulate SCUD-like short range ballistic threats. The target was hit at an altitude of around 10 km, as it simulated the descent phase of a ballistic missile. 

The Blue Sparrow is suitable to represent more performant ballistic threats, and Israel is developing the Silver Sparrow, which will simulate missiles in the 1500 to 3000 km range-class, such as Iranian Shihab 3 weapons. Israel is using the Sparrow targets to test and validate the Harrow anti-ballistic system. 

The missile is the same, so the test should be very much valid and reassuring for the naval PAAMS as well. It also confirms that the Aster missile has a huge growth margin, and gives new credibility to MBDA's offer to develop an "Aster Block 2" or even an Aster 45 anti-ballistic missile. 

This ambition, however, is largely a french one. The UK for the moment is not really hot on ballistic defence, Italy has other priorities and very little money, and France itself has other destinations for its own defence budget. The rest of Europe went AEGIS/MK41 (Germany, Spain, Dutch) and their eventual choice is very straightforward with the SM-3.

Personally, i find the MBDA anti-ballistic missile a fascinating idea, but one with very little hopes to see the light, but as always, time will tell. 

Supersonic, Sea-Skimming trial ahead - In the next future, PAAMS will face a very important test. France has confirmed that they will soon trial the Aster 30 missile against a supersonic, sea-skimming target representing a russian ship-killer missile (such as SS-N22 Sunburn or the Yakhont acquired recently by Syria). 

The target will be an american-built GQM-163 Coyote, an incredibly effective (but horrendously expensive) target drone developed by the US Navy and used for Aegis missile trials since 2006. 

The single Coyote was ordered by France in 2007, at a cost of 9.2 million dollars (!). Ever since, nothing had been heard about it, and i was fearing that we would continue to be feed the assuration that PAAMS can shoot down "multiple supersonic sea-skimming missiles approaching simultaneously by different directions" without the system ever having been tested against anything more challenging than a subsonic Exocet. 

France is reassuring everyone that this is not the case  and we can only be glad of it. Shooting down the Coyote as it flies at mach 2.5 just a few meters above the waves will be a good test for the PAAMS, and will do much to improve confidence in the system, all the way to the Type 45's Sea Viper. 

Let's hope it all goes according to plan.   

Collaboration with France - The new deals

The most relevant parts of the new deal formalized today include:

Combined Joint Expeditionary Force

France and the UK agreed in November 2010 to set up a combined Joint expeditionary Force (CJEF). Our operation in Libya has proved the relevance of this work. Today the Level of Ambition for the CJEF has been described as:

an early entry force capable of facing multiple threats up to the highest intensity, available for bilateral, NATO, European Union, United Nations or other operations. A five-year exercise framework is in place to achieve full operating capability in 2016.

The number of exchange officers in the military academies of the two countries will increase, and a Force Enhancement Working Group to identify the scope for further cost saving through exchange of services and alignment of military requirements has been established.

Joint Amphibious Exercise for 2012  

Confirmed for later this year is the massive French-UK exercise, Corsican Lion, to accelerate the development of the CJEF. It will take place in the Mediterranean Sea with participation by sea, land and air forces. The UK will send the Royal Navy Response Force Task Group, France will also deploy the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle as part of the exercise. 

Carrier Strike Group collaboration

The UK and France aim to have, by the early 2020s, the ability to deploy a UK-French integrated carrier strike group incorporating assets owned by both countries.

Deployable Joint HQ to be formed

A deployable Combined Joint Force Headquarters is being created. By 2016, the UK/FR Headquarters will utilise existing French and UK high-readiness, well-experienced national Force Headquarters staff, including officers embedded in each other’s deployable Headquarters. The Headquarters will be capable of expansion to include staff from other nations participating in a multinational operation.

An early command and control element of the CJEF will stand up early, with urgency, to handle small scale operations in the short term. It will be expanded to reach full efficiency by 2016.

Drones 

Telemos - Medium Altitude Longue Endurance (MALE) Drone. The Joint Program Office was launched in 2011. A jointly funded contract will "shortly" be placed with BAES and Dassault to study the technical risks associated with the MALE UAV. The Telemos should by flying by 2020. This represents a delay from an once-hoped 2018 date, and will pretty much force the RAF to bring Reaper into core budget as stop-gap measure in 2015 (the Reaper is currently only a UOR, tied to the Afghanistan campaign and funded by the Treasury).
France is valuing its own alternatives for an interim solution, with the Heron-TP being favorite. The Heron is made in Israel and is to be adapted (at great cost) to meet french requirements by Dassault. A more cost-effective Reaper solution is not appreciated as it is seen as damaging for the national industry since Dassault would have mostly nothing to do on it!

Watchkeeper - France confirms its interest for the Watchkeeper system recognising the opportunities this would create for cooperation on technical, support, operational and development of doctrine and concepts.  An evaluation of the system by France will begin in 2012, in the framework of its national procurement process, and conclude in 2013.

Watchkeeper might find in France its first export triumph. 

Joint Future Combat Air System Demonstration Programme - Co-operation of strategic importance for the future of the European Combat Air Sector. This work will provide a framework to mature the relevant technologies and operational concepts for a UCAS operating in a high threat environment. Already this year work could start for writing the specification of this demonstrator with a jointly funded contract under the industrial leadership of Dassault-Aviation in France and BAE Systems in the UK.
This is likely to mean that the NEURON and TARANIS projects will more or less joint in a single long-term program aiming for a stealth drone to put in service by around 2030.

A400 Cargo Aircraft

A Joint User Group is being established to facilitate co-operation on A400M training to inform operating techniques and procedures for synthetic and live training. A common support plan for the two fleets is also being pursued. A contract will be negotiated with Airbus Military so that integrated support is in place for the arrival of the first French aircraft in 2013.

Submarine technology

A bilateral Memorandum of Understanding was signed in June 2011 to support exchanges and pursue collaborative work to identify areas of technological cooperation and savings. Currently, the team is looking at the feasibility of a co-development of specific sonar equipment.

Maritime Mine Countermeasures.

The plans for future Maritime Mine Countermeasures capabilities have been aligned, as widely expected. Development of a MCM solution will happen with an incremental approach whose first major step will begin next year with the development and realisation of a demonstrator/prototype of off board systems based on unmanned technologies. The Joint Project Office already established within OCCAR will begin a European competitive process in 2012 for a common assessment phase.

I've looked at the RN and french programs for future MCM systems here. The scope for collaboration has long been evident, with the basic concept of the two navies being the same.

Satellite Communications.

France and UK will look to confirm their intent to adopt a cooperative approach to meet their need for future COMSAT services, considering they will form a core asset in any Beyond Line of Sight capabilities in the future. A comparative study will be made by mid 2012 to analyse different architectural options.

40mm CTA cannon.

Effort will be made to assure qualification by 2013, jointly promote the export of this system and the elaboration of a NATO standard.

Counter IED.

A high degree of interoperability will be demanded and a Joint action plan will be elaborated in 2012 to cover cooperative opportunities in the operations/capability/R&T domains.

Missiles 

Collaboration, via MBDA, is to continue. A joint assessment phase on Storm Shadow/Scalp enhancement is to start this year. The feasibility of cooperation on future anti-surface tactical missiles will be examinated through initial studies later this year. This might involve the British SPEAR effect for a family of new air to ground weapons, but also surface-to-surface systems (BANG warhead for extended range GMLRS rockets [over 100 km demonstrated] and the UK has expressed interest in the France effort for designing a replacement for the Milan anti-tank missile, despite the Javelin having arguably a long life ahead of itself still.
In the coming months a MoU will be signed for the development and manufacture of the Future Anti-ship Guided Weapon / Anti-Navire Léger program. The FASGW(Heavy) or Sea Skua II (is it an official name? Not clear) is the replacement for the Sea Skua helicopter-launched anti-ship missile, and is targeted at the Wildcat helicopter. Interesting how the same missile is "Heavy" for the british and "light" for the French: the french, of course, intend their Exocet as the Heavy part of the mix.

This Wildcat is shown heavily loaded with 4 Sea Skua / FASGW(H) and 2 x 7 launchers of LMM missiles. Never before had a Navy Lynx had this firepower!

The FASGW(Light) is the Thales Light Multimission Missile, already ordered in 1000 units. The LMM can be employed by the Wildcat, could be integrated in the next few years on the Watchkeeper under the Royal Artillery's ATUAS (Armed Tactical Unmanned Air System) and can be fired by the Stormer HVM platform in place of the usual Starstreak missile, from which anyway the LMM derives.

A Wildcat carrying 14 LMM missiles. Excellent to fend off swarms of FACs and boats with RPGs and other similar threats. An Apache armed with LMMs is also shown. The LMM could find use in many applications, on many different platforms.

The LMM has been shown and offered for integration already on uncountable platforms, including Camcopter mini drones and on the BAE Herti drone, vehicular Remote Weapon Stations and on the SIGMA (Stablilised Integrated Gun/Missile Array) naval system, development of the DS30 line of small-calibre weapon mountings that the RN is retrofitting on Type 23 and that will no doubt be on CVF and Type 26 as well. The DS30 used by the RN combines an off-mount electro-optical director with a fully automated gun mount using the ATK Mk 44 Bushmaster 30mm cannon.

An RWS for use on land vehicles, combining a .50 and 2 LMM missiles. A massive firepower readily available.

The SIGMA adds a a seven-cell LMM pannier, and has already been extensively trialed and evaluated by DSTL for the MOD as part of naval research and experimentation. It could be adopted anytime to enhance the defense of ships. 

The SIGMA mount

 

Research and Development

A common strategy for defence research, development and innovation will be developed this year to compile a "2025 Key Technologies” plan to guide the efforts of the defence industry.



Collaboration will continue in Cyber warfare and Counterterrorism, and in the nuclear field as well. 

In the civilian field, a huge deal has been signed for Nuclear Energy collaboration, involving the commitment to finalise key contracts for the first new nuclear power station to be built in the UK (Hinkley Point C) in time for the project’s final investment decision before the end of 2012. It is also involved a project for the construction of a tidal turbine farm off Alderney-Aurigny in the Channel Islands.

Tell us that it is not a dream, please!

The Telegraph reports, finally, excellent news. Apparently Philip Hammond is due to announce, as part of PR12, that the MOD books are finally in balance.
Apparently, the MOD has even managed to recollect some 2 billions, which had been allocated for costs and expenses which have actually not materialized, to finance several important programs due to be announced soon, probably early next month:

- Phase 2 Enhancement for the Typhoon. Expected by 2014, it should be given the go ahead, if not even brought forwards. Integration of Brimstone and Storm Shadow is part of said enhancement, along with adjustements to software that will allow, among other things, the dropping of bombs at supersonic speed. Paveway IV is already being integrated and will be certified for use this year.
Bringing forwards the integration of AG weaponry is probably seen as indispensable also in order to try and regain appeal on the export market: the loss in India and the embarrassing considerations contained in the Swiss air force evaluation report (in which Rafale beat Typhoon by a good margin in ALL roles and tasks) have been a bitter blow. Waiting for 2014 for weaponry, 2015 or later for AESA and so along is going to be a bad handicap in the chase for export orders. 

- Puma upgrade safe and sound. We will see if rumors of a further reduction (from 24 to 22) are real or if all 24 are confirmed.

- Merlin HC3 navalization. According to the Telegraph, all 22 HC3 (what about the 6 HC3A? the plan was to convert a fleet of 25 helicopters in total, scrapping the oldest/damaged ones) helicopters of the RAF are to be navalized and transfered to the Navy for amphibious ops. It will be interesting to learn more about the extent of the modernization and navalization process: the conversion for naval use should in fact be done along with the Mid-Life upgrade of the machine.

- Type 26 funding confirmed.


No mention of the MHPC or MARS FT (the replacement for minesweepers and survey ships and the program for new tankers for the RFA), which are expected to move a step forwards in this Planning Round, but if the crisis has been overcome for real, hoping is no longer a taboo.


Please, oh please tell us that we are not dreaming!

Italy's defence cuts - Not 131, but 90 F35; UPDATED

Today Admiral Gian Paolo di Paola, minister for defence, confirmed that the 190.000 uniformed and 30.000 civilian personnel in the armed forces are no longer sustainable, and will need to drop to 150.000 uniformed and 20.000 civilians. 22.000 less men in the Army, 7000 less in the Navy, 10.000 less in the Air force.  The top brass will be trimmed significantly in number across the force.

The F35 plan, as widely expected, has been revised and downsized: now Italy is to buy only 90 F35, down from 131. There are no details, but the cut of 41 is almost certainly going to mean the end of the plan for the Italian Air Force to buy around 40 F35B. The original italian order was, in fact, to include 69 F35A as Tornado IDS replacement, with 40 F35B as AMX replacement and CAS-dedicated platform, plus 22 F35B for the Navy for Harrier AV8B+ replacement.

Very probably, the plan is now to buy 68 F35A for the air force and 22 F35B for the Navy.
The Tranche 3B of Typhoon is long dead for Italy, but a reduction could hit the Typhoons already acquired and in service as well, with part of the Tranche 1 being retired, since the minister hints to a reduction in air defence units. Support for the Typhoon in Italy is at an all-times low. 

UPDATE: pessimism on the progress and ever growing cost of the F35B is apparently giving birth to a "party" of supporters for an order of 75 F35A and just 15 F35B for the Navy. 

The Italian army is also going to be cut, with the target of 11 Maneuver Brigades being abandoned, scaled down by 2 to 9 brigades, with cuts in heavy artillery and tanks and heavy armor. It is too early to guess what this will really mean.
Until now, the Army was planning for 2 Heavy Brigades, 1 of which Armoured ("Ariete" of El Alamein fame), and one mechanized ("Garibaldi"); 4 Medium Brigades on 8x8 vehicles ("Pinerolo", "Aosta", "Sassari", "Pozzuolo del Friuli") and 5 Light/Specialized ("Folgore", parachute; "Friuli" airmobile; "Taurinense" and "Julia" mountain infantry; "Granatieri di Sardegna" infantry).

My personal vision is that two of these brigades are particularly vulnerable: the "Pozzuolo del Friuli" and the "Granatieri di Sardegna". The first is the only Cavalry brigade in the Army, and is basically a "container" of units that normally end up attached to other brigades or commands. In particular the brigade contains the "Lagunari Serenissima" amphibious infantry regiment, which works alongside the Navy's own infantry regiment "San Marco" for obvious reasons; and three Reconnaissance Cavalry regiments on 40 Centauro B1 8x8 armored vehicles each. These regiments normally end up assigned to other brigades: in particular a Centauro RECCE regiment is to be part of each of the 3 Infantry Medium Brigades ("Pinerolo", "Aosta", "Sassari"), and two of said brigades ("Aosta" and "Sassari") do not have the formation in their force.
It is possible that two Centauro regiments from the Pozzuolo del Friuli will be re-assigned, one to each of the above mentioned brigades, and the brigade itself closed down.

UPDATE: there's been suggestions on some press that the Army cut could actually see two brigades being combined into a single one. The Airmobile "Friuli" and the PARA "Folgore" are specifically mentioned by newspaper "La Stampa". A fusion of said brigades would likely deliver a formation similar in concept to the British 16 Air Assault Brigade. 
In this picture would probably fit an hinted, but not detailed reduction in the force of the helicopters fleet.


The "Granatieri di Sardegna" brigade also looks vulnerable to me as it is not specialized in any particular role, and might be the easier cut, even though Di Paola outlines the hypothesis of heavy cuts concentrated on the heavier (tracked armor) formations.  
These could possibly involve, however, a restructuring, not closure, of "Ariete" and "Garibaldi". The Ariete is an old-style armoured brigade with 3 x Tank Regiments (Type 41, with 41 MBT each) and 1 x Mechanized Infantry, while "Garibaldi" has only 1 x Tank regiment and 2 x Mechanized Infantry regiments.
Ariete is likely to be changed significantly, in my view. However we will have better details in due time.

Navy vessel numbers will also be cut, with patrol vessels dropping from 18 to 10 and submarines dropping from six to four, which means that the second couple of U-212 being built will also be the last.
The reduction in "patrol vessels" is not detailed, and it is not possible at the moment to say what it will entail, but it appears that Italy will not order the second and last batch of FREMM frigates (4 to add to the 6 on order). This means that the FREMM program loses another piece, after France cut its own order from 17 to 11. The cut to just 6 high-class frigates will have a very bad impact on the navy and on national shipbuilding yards and industry.

It must be noted, however, that this is the Ministry of Defence's proposal and recommendation: it will be the Parliament, and ultimately the government, that will decide the definitive shape of the restructuring and of the cuts. 

PAC and NAO reports on MOD accounts

The Public Accounts Committee released its report onto the MOD Major Projects for 2011. There are issues, and there's been a 466 million increase in MOD projects costs in the year, but the report is nonetheless quite appreciative of the work done by the Department, and notes that real progress in balancing the books is being made.

The NAO added a report which express doubts at how the MOD will be able to manage the loss of so much personnel in so little time. Overall, though, it also express a general appreciation for a job well done by the MOD, considering the very challenging moment. They also publish their own report into the MOD activity in the 2010/2011 period. 
This one report contains interesting data: 

- The Army is run on a budget of 7.4 billion.  
- The RAF is run on a budget of 3 billion. 
- The Navy, Royal Marines included, costs 2.4 billion. 
- The MOD is still paying 2.9 (3.9?) billion in net additional costs of "Operations and Peacekeeping". When they say that Afghanistan is funded by the Treasury, know that it is not really true, not entirely at least. The (3.9?) i added because there's a contraddiction in the report: a graphic shows 2.9 billion, but the text accompanying it talks of 3.77 billion Net Additional Costs coming from Afghanistan ops and 22 million from Libya ops [up to 31 March 2011 only]. The graphic is probably wrong, and 3.9 is probably the correct figure.
- Half a billion is swallowed by the Chief of Joint Operations. The US did cut their Joint Forces Command to save money. Are we sure that for the UK it's worth having a separate Joint Chief, now a RAF Marshal, which (seems) to have not really defined authority over "tri-service" assets such as ISTAR? Half a billion can keep Sentinel R1 running for 10 years or probably pay for most of the Sea King MK7 replacement, if a Merlin solution is chosen. I'd think about it again. 
- Central cost of the MOD is 2.9 billion. 
- In 2010/11 Equipment Acquisition budget was 8.5 billion, of which 1.1 billion came for the Treasury reserve and covered UORs.  
- The most expensive items the MOD is buying are Typhoon (37 billions, including 13 billions expected running costs) and the FSTA tanker (12.9 billion expected expense). Further down are the Type 45 program (6.5 billion) and CVF, which now is indicated at an expected value of 6.2 billion, including Conversion to cats and traps budget.


However the focus of this brief article will be on some very important revelations that come out of the Oral Evidence supplied to PAC and that makes for far more concrete and interesting news that, however, very few will get since reading through 144 questions and answers to get to the little, precious info is of course not something many will do!
I've waded through them, and found these interesting facts:


On the 10 years equipment plan

Ursula Brennan, on 30 November 2011, told the Committee that the MOD hoped to be "weeks, not months" away from asking the NAO to look into the 10 Years Equipment Plan and validate it. Unfortunately, the PAC report now came out and specifically notes that said invite failed to materialize yet. It'll take some more time before we can finally see said plan.


On FRES SV

I noted in a previous article the confusing budget figure of 1300+ millions (nearly 1.4 billion, in fact) for Development and Manufacture of FRES SV Recce Block 1. Back then it was not possible to make other than guesses about the nature of the amount.
Now we learn that said budgeting figure comes from:

- The well known 500 million pounds budget for development, prototyping and trials, inclusive of the assembly of 7 prototypes, including Common Base Platform, which is the hull over which all variants are to be built.
- 500 millions in Long Lead Item orders for the production of the Recce Block 1 vehicles. There is no firm commitment to this yet, it is a budget forecast, and a contract will be signed not earlier than 2013, most likely.
- The rest of the amount covers the establishing and supply of Training and support to the Army for bringing FRES in service; 20% of VAT over the whole activity and allocation of money for Forecasted Inflation adjustements.

It remains the fact that 1.4 billions out of 5.5 planned to be spent in 10 years for Armor projects are virtually committed, and they will apparently deliver just 7 prototypes and parts for the production to (hopefully) follow. It is not exactly an heartening figure. One would expect production costs of RECCE Block 1 to be damn low when the actual production starts, after such a large early spend. But before any firm order for frontline vehicles is placed, the 10-years armor budget is already down to 4.1 billion. Not a good thing, also because armored vehicles orders are rather easy to cancel or defer, much more than big orders for ships or planes, and they end up being the most vulnerable to budget adjustements. The committee, indeed, couldn't help but note that there is a quite high risk of eventually ending up wasting the money sunk in development was FRES SV to fall victim to budget cuts.


On Nimrod MRA4

3.4 billions wasted, by now it is official. At the moment of cancellation, there were 200 millions left for the MOD to spend on Nimrod: apparently, BAE needed more than that to complete activity and deliver working planes, but this is not openly confirmed and definitely not specified. Might have been, might have not been. We might never know the reality and the amounts involved.
Of the 1.8 billion saving on 10 years (the expected cost of running the planned Nimrod fleet), the MOD does not yet know how much will effectively be booked, since negotiations with BAE on contract cancellation costs have not concluded yet, and the cost of Nimrod termination is thus still not defined. 

Worse, the MOD officers listened in the hearing made clear that, at the moment, there is no real plan to acquire a replacement Maritime Patrol Aircraft in the 10 years timeframe. An MPA won't figure in the Equipment Plan at publishing.
The MOD is however involved in the Poseidon P8 development and is evaluating alternatives for the future, while sending MPA crews abroad to work on airplanes of allied countries, from the US to Australia, under the Seedcorn initiative. A change of priorities could still see an order placed, perhaps as part of the next SDSR, but said order would in no case be under the 1 billion mark, without considering the running costs in following years: it would thus represent a large shift of money from other voices of the budget, and it will be challenging to make room for it.


On the financial black hole and on the 1% budget uplift

The MOD books are finally being balanced and put in order. Both the NAO and PAC are recognizing the progress, and the MOD plan is said to now be "Broadly in Balance". which should mean that only little adjustements in the various planning rounds will be needed from now on, and not big cuts.

However, the MOD is planning on the 1% real-term uplift in Equipment budget promised by government and Treasury for the period from 2015 to 2020. There is no contingency plan. The Committee has expressed fears that the budget uplift could fail to materialize, and urged the MOD and the Treasury to come up with some contingency planning to get an idea of how much a disaster it would be if even that little (3.3 billions) boost is eventually denied.

The fears of the Committee are, unfortunately, more than understandable. But the it really is horrible to see that so little confidence can be placed in the government's committment to such an important promise.
Whoever denies the MOD the tiny uplift promised will have to bear the consequences of a massive impact on defence capabilities, and the MOD really will not be to blame in the case. They are planning with that they are told to. Their role is to fit in the budget they are given, and this, as of now, includes a 1% uplift. 
The government should once and for all make its mind up and choose its priorities. 

India is publicly saying that they find "offensive" the fact that the UK gives them aid money that they do not want. 
Surely that money can be better spent somewhere else, no? 280 millions a year would have kept going Largs Bay (12 million per year), the 345-tanks Challenger II fleet (some 10 millions a year is the value of the 40% cut according to government), AS90 fleet, and all of the Type 22s and even Ark Royal. Comfortably. 
To give an idea, the whole Type 23 fleet of 13 ships is run on roughly 320 million pounds per year.

One thing the PAC should URGENTLY look into, and they should do so very carefully, is the Aid budget, aims and initiatives. Not only we are being told that the UK money to India is wasted, but that they do find it offensive. 
Surely it is a no brainer to stop giving money to them. Aid money has an important role to play in the UK's security, and it should also buy better economical and political relationships with foreign countries. This is reality, like it or not. If Bono Vox wants to throw money away for nothing, he should use his own. 
If aid money to India is buying contempt, it is a really, really poor way to use 280 million pounds a year. 

One rare good news

After the recent report on the request for Urgent acquisition of two BAE146 QC small cargo planes to support Afghanistan ops, there is now an announcement that the RAF is to get its 8th C17 cargo plane.
While a further expansion of the fleet was never ruled out, and while a requirement for at least another C17 was long standing and recognized nearly publically, it remains a true surprise to hear of this order.

Perhaps the fact that, by 2013 at the latest, Boeing will close the C17 assembly line according to current schedule and plans did force the MOD to speed thinking up.
Further details should be released later today, and i will update the article when they come.

A rare but very welcome good news, and an excellent enhancement to a very important capability of the RAF.
The 200 million pounds investment has been announced today by David Cameron.

According to the MOD:

The newest C-17 is currently being built by Boeing in the USA and is due to come off the production line next month. It is then expected to enter service with the RAF in July 2012.

This suggests that the UK bought it directly from the USAF last order. Almost certainly the USAF will not fund an additional plane to replace it, but we will know it in the coming period. The airplane is of course going to join the other 7 RAF C17s at Brize Norton, within 99 Squadron.
There will be no impact on the planned C17 production line closure at Boeing.

Meanwhile, today the Parliamentary Defence Committee released its report and analysis on Libyan ops.
Makes for an interesting read.
Main two points of interest, regarding equipment, are the very high praise for the Sentinel R1, which looks more and more safe despite the SDSR retirement rambling, and the confirmation of the Committee's warning and recommendation of proceeding with both CVF vessels, kitting both as aircraft carriers to ensure that carrier air is available around the clock.