F-35 and Carrier Enabled Power Projection update

The Royal Navy and Royal Air Force exploited RIAT 2016 to deliver a couple of interesting about the F-35 and the fabled Carrier Enabled Power Projection (AKA: you are losing HMS Ocean without replacement, make do somehow).

Beginning with the F-35B, we get an update about the build-up plan. As is to be expected from the MOD, nothing really new is revealed and plans for LRIP 11 and beyond purchases are not detailed at all. Currently, the MOD has placed a long-lead items order for a single F-35B to be delivered as part of LRIP 11, the last of the famous 14 jets authorized to enable the formation of the first frontline squadron.
Following purchases are meant to be planned out as part of Main Gate 5, scheduled for the 2017 budget cycle, so we'll have to wait until next year to learn anything substantial about what follows BK-18.
The LRIP 11 production contract will be let by the Pentagon later during 2017, so the MOD has time to add a few more airframes to the currently lonely BK-18. Moreover, LRIP 12 should be the opening lot of the proposed "Block Buy", making next year's decision very important.

We have been told that 42 F-35B should be in british hands by the end of 2023, including 24 in two frontline squadrons, and to achieve that number, considering a two-year timeframe between order and delivery, the UK needs to purchase a further 24 F-35 over a maximum of five production lots (11 to 15; 2017 to 2021). That works out at around 5 aircraft per lot, which is far from ambitious yet not without challenges for the MOD's budget.

The various milestones remain unchanged: it is still planned to have the british OCU operational in 2019, for example. According to an earlier Written Answer to the House of Lords about the matter, the OCU will have 5 F-35B when it begins training british personnel in July 2019. The last courses for british personnel in US Marine Corps Air Base Beaufort will be completed in 2018.

617 Sqn will fly to RAF Marham during summer 2018. For a while, it will be understrength as aircraft move out to fill the OCU. Then it will, for a while, grow into a "super squadron" before splitting, by December 2023, into two as 809 NAS stands up.

Thankfully, integration of key british weapons is confirmed as a Block 4 event. Between 2020 and 2026, the british F-35B will receive the new build (Block 6) ASRAAM; the Paveway IV with bunker-buster warhead; SPEAR 3 and Meteor.
SPEAR 3 is, according to Jane's, a Block 4.2 candidate. This contradicts an earlier slide, released in february 2015 by LM, showing SPEAR 3 towards the final 4.4 software release. Development of SPEAR 3 is progressing well and MBDA believes it can offer a complete weapon, ready for integration, within the next two years or so.
Meteor in the slide was a 4.3 candidate and there are reasons to believe that it will be the last to be integrated, being the most complex.
The decision to retain the Typhoon Tranche 1 into service into the 2020s is probably connected to this timeframe, in the sense that it provides further reason to extend the AMRAAM into RAF service beyond 2020.
While there is no official confirmation that i know of, logic and facts suggest that the two Typhoon Tranche 1 squadrons will live on in british service just as long as AMRAAM does (otherwise they'll have very little to employ...), and AMRAAM is needed as long as Meteor isn't integrated on F-35. Moreover, the second pair of F-35B squadrons planned are the obvious replacement of the two Tranche 1 squadrons.
Typhoon T1 is merely a useful placeholder, that will be exploited to the best of the little it can offer, bridging the gap between Tornado and F-35, avoiding a ruinous fall in the number of squadrons which would have probably never been reversed.




In practice, we can assume that the RAF is thinking roughly on this line:

Now: 5 Typhoon + 3 Tornado GR4 squadrons
2019+: Tornado GR4 bows out, personnel sent in Typhoon stream to build up to 7 Typhoon Sqns and 1 F-35B
2023 and beyond: Typhoon Tranche 1 bows out, but two more squadrons of F-35B are built up. 7 + 2 become 5 + 4. Meteor finally completely replaces AMRAAM.

On the infrastructure front, RAF Marham will see a lot of work in the coming years.

Runway 01 will become a STOL strip, and 3 vertical landing pads have been funded. The main runway will be resurfaced by June 2024.
Hangar 3 has been demolished to make room for the Maintenance and Finish Hangar. Hangar No 1 will be demolished later this year to be replaced by another engineering facility.
The South HAS area will be refurbished to become 617 Sqn's home, and the offices for the OCU will be built nearby, close to the Integrated Training Centre which will host the simulators.
Work on the Lightning Force HQ and National Operating Centre has also started. The building is being built as a secure facility, because this is where the british ALIS main node will be located. Office space for 125 is planned.


On the ship side, things are moving too. Not always in the most encouraging of ways: for whatever reason, the Navy seems to be expecting a long capability gap between the loss of HMS Ocean and the maturity of plans for using Queen Elizabeth class as an assault ship.

CEPP IOC is given as September 2023, and this might have to do with the stated intention of modifying parts of HMS Prince of Wales to give her better Embarked Force spaces and amphibious bits, which have never been detailed so far.

In full "amphibious" configuration, the target for a Queen Elizabeth class carrier is given as two companies, which should mean something in the region of 500 men, plus a good 300 more in support of the embarked group of helicopters.

It is to be assumed and hoped that HMS Queen Elizabeth will get the "amphibious mods" applied during her first refit, considering that the ships will often operate alone, not as a couple, requiring, more than a pure carrier strike or pure amphibious loadouts, an hybrid "assault" configuration.

The USMC is now officially expected to be part of the air wing on the first operational deployment of HMS Queen Elizabeth, expected in 2021, as announced by secretary of state for defence Fallon. Their F-35Bs and MV-22 will complement the british elements of the air wing.
This is really not a surprise, and there had been very clear hints dropped in multiple occasions, all the way up to the USMC including the QE class between the platforms considered in its annual Aviation Strategy document.
Their MV-22 could end up being especially valuable if they came with the tanker kit for air refuelling. They will also provide a long-range, quick CSAR platform. Jane's is reporting that the Royal Marines are pushing for greater effort in this area, and that a Personnel Recovery cell has already been created within 3 Commando Brigade.
The MOD has been attempting to set up a proper Joint Personnel Recovery capability for a long time, and last year it had begun looking around for vehicles compatible with internal carriage on Chinook and with usefulness in scenarions including evacuation of downed personnel and recovery and/or destruction of classified equipment fallen in enemy territory.
It will be interesting to see if, how and when this project progresses. It would most likely be closely connected with the SDSR-sanctioned wish of the Special Forces director for longer-range air mobility.
The options on the table, essentially, are two: a V-22 Osprey purchase; or the procurement of air refueling probes for a number of Chinook helicopters, plus a couple of tanker kits for two of the retained C-130J.
In the case of the Chinook, the HC3 (soon to be HC5) machines are excellent candidates: they already come with longer legs thanks to their fat tanks; and they will exit from their ongoing JULIUS modification fitted also with the same digital flight controls introduced by the HC6, The addition of the probes would make them very capable.

The V-22 appears not once but twice in this slide, shown both as part of the embarked force and as an element of Maritime Intra-Theatre Lift (MITL). This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it is still worth noting.

Regarding the Fleet Carrier / Carrier Strike end of the business, the Royal Navy is doing what it can to restore a proper air wing beginning with the helicopter side.
Last year's Deep Blue exercise saw, for the first time in years, a major carrier ASW deployment with a standard complement of 9 Merlin helicopters working to keep the task force safe from enemy submarine action.
This year's Deep Blue did not include quite as many Merlin HM2 but on the other hand it introduced the other key bit: AEW coverage and Anti-Air Warfare. Sea King ASaC Mk7 were embarked and employed to protect the task forces from the attacks of the Hawk jets of 736 NAS playing as aggressors.

The Royal Navy wants the carrier air wing to include a 9-helos ASW squadron and a 4/5 helos strong AEW force. To achieve that, it is planning to restructure the Merlin force over the next two years:

820 NAS will become a permanently carrier-roled ASW squadron.

814 NAS and 829 NAS will be merged together to provide Small Ship Flights for the Type 23 frigates; a flight at high readiness for the Fleet Ready Escort / Towed Array Patrol Ship and a few extra flights for reinforcement of the carriers.

849 NAS will continue being the AEW squadron, moving from Sea King ASaC Mk7 to Merlin HM2.

824 NAS will be the training unit.

The loss of one of the current squadrons in order to accommodate the indispensable AEW-roled unit might, unfortunately, signal the final surrender of the Royal Navy in the quest for getting the 8 remaining Merlin HM1 upgraded and kept in service.
It seems reasonable to assume that, had those helicopters been funded, 814 and 829 would not be merging.

The large number of helicopters will tipically mean fewer F-35B. A large air wing will tend to have 24, rather than 36, F-35B on board. This would mean embarking half the squadrons (2 out of 4 once the intended Lightning Force is fully built up), which is not unrealistic. More should be achievable, but not routinely.

Finally, the brief suggests that Type 45 and F-35 could work together very closely to take down air threats. This is absolutely doable and should be an objective for the future, but the reality is that, as of today, the Royal Navy does not have the kind of Cooperative Engagement Capability equipment in use in the US Navy.
While US F-35s will be trialed as nodes within a Naval Integrated Fire Control - Counter Air (NIFC-CA) network as soon as this month, british F-35Bs do not currently have a clear path to follow to reach the same capability. The Royal Navy had hoped to fit the US CEC system to the Type 45 destroyers, but funding never materialized.

It would be a major upgrade and a big step in the right direction to join the NIFC-CA project sometime in the future.

The two complete documents can be seen below:

RIAT 2016 briefing on QE class and CEPP plans by Liger30 on Scribd

F-35B UK Plans briefing from RIAT 2016 by Liger30 on Scribd

Merlin progress - UPDATE with AEW squadron plan

Merlin for the Royal Marines

846 NAS is training with the Merlin HC3 with the aim of going out to sea soon. According to ADS Advance, the plan is to have them having their first sortie at sea before Christmas, presumably on board of HMS Ocean, due to RFA Argus being deployed to Sierra Leone in support of Operation Gritrock, the british intervention against ebola.
There is not much time left, if the plan is still in place, so their debut at sea might be truly imminent.

846 NAS has re-formed in September in RAF Benson, with 10 helicopters and 14 crews, for a total of 28 pilots. Over 300 aircrew and engineers from the Royal Navy have been training in Benson from 2012 to reach this moment. 846 NAS will remain in Benson for a while still, working alongside the remaining RAF Merlin squadron, 28(AC) Sqn. The squadron is expected to relocate to Yeovilton by Easter 2015, and next year 845 NAS should also gradually take Merlin in, with 28(AC) disbanding. 845 NAS should reform in August 2015, operating at least for a few months with a mix of Merlin and Sea King.

The Merlin is handed over from RAF to RN; september 2014

25 Merlin HC3 (the HC3 is the original RAF variant, known by Agusta Westland as AW101-411; 22 were originally purchased) and 3A (built for Denmark with an enhanced mission fit including a nose modified to take a LOAM low flying collision avoidance sensor; known as AW101-512, they have been purchased by the MOD for a UOR and used for training in the UK to increase the number of deployable HC3s available) are transfering from the RAF to the Fleet Air Arm, and they are all due to be life-extended, upgraded and navalized under a GBP455 million contract.
In order to maintain a core of operational capability constantly available, this process and the withdrawal of Sea King HC4 are organized in phases.

One of the first few Merlin HC3 in Royal Navy markings, by P_H_images

Phase 1 began in October 2014, and includes the partial navalization of 7 helicopters. These will receive a manual folding rotor head, lashing down points, upgraded undercarriage and fast rope harnesses, to be suitable, at least partially, for use on ships and in support of Royal Marines operations. All 7 helicopters, to be known as HC3i (Interim) should be operational by April 2016, when the last Sea King HC4 (no more than 11 remain in service, used by 845 NAS) will be withdrawn from service.

Phase 2 will involve the full navalization and upgrade of a first batch of 9 helicopters, to be uplifted to HC4/4A standard. The HC4 adds an electrically folding tail boom and a cockpit upgraded at HM2 standard as well as a new Tactical Mission System by General Dynamics UK, partially common with the one of the Wildcat. These 9 helicopters should be fully operational by February 2020, and there have been earlier indications of HC4 deliveries beginning in September 2017. Following trials, HC4 IOC with up to 7 helicopters could be achieved during 2018.

HM2's shiny new glass cockpit

Phase 3 will uplift all remaining helicopters to HC4/4A standard, including the 7 HC3i. Deliveries are to be completed by March 2022.
The Commando Helicopter Force will have a total of 37 crews for the 25 Merlin by the end of the transition from Sea King.

A number of Merlin HC3 deployed to Albania this year to work with the Royal Navy and Royal Marines during Albanian Lion 2014. Hopefully we'll see the HC3 on ships soon.

It will be quite a long transition period, which will keep the Royal Marines short of fully ship-compatible helicopters for a long period.



HM2

The HM2 Merlins have achieved operational capability early, and have been through months of very intense training, culminating in exercise Deep Blue, which saw, for the first time in many years, a full ASW squadron of 9 helicopters embarked on HMS Illustrious to fend off the attacks of british and french SSNs and of Dutch diesel submarines.

The Merlin HM2 squadron of exercise Deep Blue

Deep Blue was also a chance to test the Merlin HM2 night capabilities, with the NVG available (finally) to the crew. Here is HMS Richmond seen at night.

The Royal Navy now plans for a fleet of 30 HM2 which will try to sustain a forward available fleet of 25 at any one time, with the other 5 in maintenance.
Of these 30, up to 14 will be embarking at once on the aircraft carrier when deployed, so that the task group can line both a 9-strong ASW squadron and a 4 to 5 strong AEW component (see CROWSNEST further down in the article).
In addition, the Merlin fleet will also be required to sustain at least 5 Small Ship Flights for operations on frigates and destroyers.

HM2 have been carrying on Stingray drops in Falmouth bay as well

The Royal Navy is consequently still hoping to be able to fund the HM2 upgrade for a further 2 to 8 Merlin. The HM1 fleet numbers 38 operational machines and 4 airframes in storage / cannibalised for spares.
30 helicopters are being upgraded to HM2, but the option for 8 more was at one point dropped. However, the Royal Navy now hopes to be able to obtain 2 to 8 more HM2 machines, and a decision might be taken before the year ends.

A busy HMS Illustrious in ex Deep Blue

 
By February 2015, all squadrons (824, 820, 814 and 829) will have converted to the HM2. 



CROWSNEST  

The important AEW capability for the fleet will be a Merlin HM2 task as well, once Sea King is retired. IOC for CROWSNEST is expected in 2019, while the last Sea King ASaC Mk 7 will be withdrawn by September 30, 2018.
The Sea King ASaC force will be downsized quickly in the coming months, and probably it will soon be down to the sole 849 NAS. The number of operational helicopters will be further reduced from 11 to 7 in the forward fleet, and one in reserve. However, this beats by far the earlier plan of having the ASaC going out of service in 2016, with an AEW coverage gap for 3 to 4 years.

CROWSNEST is a programme lead by Lockheed Martin as Main Contractor due to its role in delivering the upgraded mission system used by the Merlin HM2.
Lockheed Martin is also a contender for the requirement: teaming with Elta, they are offering the VIGILANCE radar pods. The pod contains a Elta AESA radar complete with power and cooling system, IFF interrogator and ESM: The pod is carried in place of the torpedo pylons, and only needs a single point power and data connection to the helicopter: the mission system is already compatible with the HM2 software and consoles.

A Thales team is offering a new upgrade of the CERBERUS system used on the Sea King Mk 7, with the Searchwater radar carried inside the well known inflatable "bag" radome. Up to DSEI 2013, the Thales offer involved installing the radar, upgraded to deliver greater detection capabilities, on rails added on the starboard middle fuselage of the Merlin HM2s. After take off, when the undercarriage is folded away, the bag would slide down the rails so that the radar hangs below the helicopter, from where it has unobstructed 360° field of view.
In 2014 the design seems to have been tweaked doing away with the rails and adopting instead an hinge which swings the radar beneath the fuselage. The hinge assembly would go on the weapon pylon station, and from the CGI it appears a cleaner installation. The inflatable radome used on the Sea King MK7 might also be replaced with a solid radome.


Both systems are already being test flown from Boscombe Down, and the two rival bids are expected to be filed in by the end of January 2015. A selection of the winning bid is due in the first quarter of 2015. Operations should begin in 2018 and reach IOC during 2019. Thales has repeatedly said they believe they can deliver operational capability quicker than that, while LM has not been as talkative so far about the progress of the VIGILANCE trials.

The 2014 Thales offer as shown in a CGI by flightglobal.com.

A model showing the Thales solution and the rails on the fuselage, as shown at DSEI 2013

Merlin HM2 with Thales CROWSNEST payload seen in the sky over Wiltshire in november 2014

Rick Ingham shot this great photo of Merlin HM2 ZH831 fitted with two VIGILANCE pods for CROWSNEST trials. Photo from airplane-pictures.net; @ Rick Ingham

So far, the plan has been described as including the purchase of 10 AEW mission fits and the modification of all 30 Merlin HM2 to enable quick installation and removal of the system. Any helicopter in the fleet could thus move from ASW to AEW role in hours.

The new consoles of the HM2, with the large Barco displays, is suitable for displaying AEW data when CROWSNEST is in use

The concept seems brilliant, but i'm very much of the opinion that the Royal Navy, if it manages to fund the upgrade of 8 more helicopters, would better be served by removing the ASW kit from them and fitting them out to serve as AEW platforms full time, in a separate squadron.
My suspect is that the vast and precious range of capabilities and competencies of the very different arts of ASW and AEW cannot be mixed in the same crew. Perhaps the helicopters can be made capable to take the kit as quickly as promised, but the AEW and ASW specialists will, i believe, stay as two separate families.
Modifying a smaller number of helicopters for CROWSNEST transport and having them in their own squadron continues to look to me as the best solution.

UPDATE: there will indeed be an AEW squadron. The Royal Navy today announced that 849 NAS, as well as going ahead solo with the Sea King MK7 up to March 2018, will then continue as a Merlin HM2 squadron operating CROWSNEST.

854 NAS is being re-absorbed into 849 NAS as "Normandy Flight", and 857 NAS will revert to Flight identity, taking the name "Palembang Flight", with formal decommissioning in the new year.
849 NAS will carry on as a frontline squadron with 3 Flights, one presumably with training function and two operational flights. The third flight is expected to be called "Okinawa" after one of 849's battle honours.

A sensible organization, which reflects my expectations. Now, if it was possible to go ahead with the last 8 Merlin to upgrade them and use them in the AEW squadron, that would be a very good development.

State of the Royal Navy: a roundup - Part 1

Type 45

Some good news from the Type 45s front. All ships appear to have received their Phalanx fit, even HMS Duncan, the last vessel to enter service, which sported them in her recent visit to Oslo for the 200 years of the norwegian navy.
As we have known from MOD words since last year, Harpoon missile fit is also on the way for four of the six ships. It is not exactly clear when the missiles will take their place on board, but the Royal Navy's website itself is confirming that HMS Duncan is going to be the first in class getting the system. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Daring, Dragon and Diamond will be the other three. It remains unclear if the other two ships in the class are going to be cut out entirely, or if they will be fitted with the launchers infrastructure, wiring and software, allowing the missile fit itself to be moved from vessel to vessel to ensure the deployed ships have the capability.
The MOD said that additional equipment would be purchased to enable the integration of Harpoon on Type 45 (in addition to the kit that is recovered from the four decommissioned Type 22 Batch 3 frigates) but it is not clear if it is needed for the four ships, or to prepare the other two.
If all vessels get the infrastructure and system integration, swapping the missile fit from one to another is not going to be an issue; but unfortunately i'm inclined to read it as having two vessels which will flat-out not get the capability.
It is also not clear when the missile fit will appear. HMS Duncan was seen in port last march with a white tent covering what was almost certainly work related to getting the Harpoon infrastructure in; but on her subsequent sorties to sea, she still does not sport the missiles.

HMS Duncan in Portsmouth, back in March, with tarpaulin covering the Harpoon area. It is reasonable to assume she underwent some fitting out related to the missile fit, but the job isn't finished yet. Photo by Chris Argles. Thank you for letting me use the image!

Seen in Oslo in May 2014, HMS Duncan has gained Phalanx, but is still missing Harpoon, in a Royal Navy photo

HMS Defender has made progress towards full capability by receiving her own Phalanx fit and by firing Sea Viper for the first time on May 15.

Those who follow me on Twitter already know that i've been doing my best to track the Anti-Ballistic Missile tests undergone by HMS Daring in her long deployment in the Pacific. A while ago i had concluded, thanks to documents of the US Missile Defense Agency, that she had been part of
Flight Test Operational-01 (FTO-01), a US BMD System operational test executed at the Reagan Test Site/Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands.
Since then, an interesting Jane's article has confirmed that i was right in my reconstruction of the events. The results of HMS Daring's work with the modified SAMPSON radar have been good enough that the MOD has provided additional funding to continue with the ABM development program. This is a welcome development, even though so far there continues to be no plan for the eventual roll out of ABM capability to the Type 45 fleet, nor any plan to provide the ships with anti-ballistic missiles. 
The new phase of development should culminate in another ABM test in 2015. The target is to better integrate the ABM radar functionality into the ship's combat system, and add better interoperability with US ABM assets by introducing the necessary data link format. 
The 2013 test used an ABM software functionality that was separated from the ship's mission system. This required the effective "shut off" of the normal Anti Air Warfare capability of HMS Daring, which slaved its main radar to the sole ABM task instead. 
The aim for 2015 is to demonstrate an integrated ABM function running alongside the AAW mode. This paves the way for a "full spectrum" air defence and anti ballistic capability comparable to the latest american AEGIS Baseline 9 combat system; an ambitious target. 

In early 2016 the Type 45 fleet will also finally begin to receive the fully integrated Electronic Chart Precise Integrated Navigation System, the key component of the Warship Electronic Chart Display and Information System (WECDIS) navigation capability.
WECDIS is a fleet-wide program which is delivering electronic mapping and navigation to the fleet, including to submarines. 



Type 26 

Although still unconfirmed, according to Jane's the MOD is about to select the BAE MK45 Mod 4 gun as the artillery piece for the Maritime Indirect Fire System program, a branch of the wider Type 26 frigate enterprise. This would mean defeat for the Oto Melara / Babcock team, offering the 127/64 Lightweight, which was earlier seen as the favorite. 
The Lightweight is a more modern artillery piece, offering a much higher rate of fire (over 30 rounds per minute versus 20 plus) and a wholly automated high capacity ammunition magazine. Both BAE and Oto Melara can also offer guided long-range ammunition, respectively the Standard Guided Projectile and the VULCANO ammunition family. These follow very different design phylosophies, with SGP using rocket propulsion to extend the range of a full-width 127mm shell, while VULCANO uses a sabot-discarding, slim dart which exploits aerodynamics to reach long distances, at the expense of a smaller payload. Details of the two guns and of their ammunition is inside an earlier article.

In addition, British Forces News has visited the BAE design centre, and saw the virtual reality 3D design work ongoing for the Type 26 frigate. Observing the design work, a couple of things caught my attention: the new warship is possibly going to have a mission centre aft of the bridge, with windows looking out directly over the sides of the vessel, and possibly even facing aft, to give a greater and more immediate situational awareness. 
These 360° degrees bridges are becoming more common in warship design. The Holland class OPVs use the COBRA (COmmand BRidge Aft) arrangement; while other vessels have similar conceptual solutions, such as the DCNS Androit OPVs, and the still in design PAM multi-role warships for the italian navy.  
There is no way to confirm, at the moment, whether my suspect is correct or not, but windows definitely seems to have appeared aft of the bridge, suggesting a COBRA-like arrangement. 

A long row of new windows has appeared aft of the bridge, right beneath the sensors mast. The funnel mast also seems to have been redesigned and split into two masts of differing heights. 

The COBRA used on the Holland OPVs offers a mission control centre right behind the bridge. Armored windows ensure direct view of the bridge itself (see photo) as well as of the sides of the vessel. 

Panoramic view of the COBRA centre, with windows giving a view on the bridge and on the sides of the vessel. Might the Type 26 gain a similar arrangement?

The bridge itself seems virtually identical to the Type 45's one. The images shown do not allow me to say whether there are windows between the bridge and the supposed mission control area aft of it, like in the COBRA arrangement.

The graphic of the design being refined by BAE also suggests that the funnel mast has changed, splitting into two masts of different height. 

It will be interesting to see how the mast area is eventually reconfigured, and if it has any impact on the disposition of the pole masts and related communications equipment; on sensors and eventually even on weapons capability. The aft CAMM launchers apparently are still there, in the low mast aft of the funnel area, but maybe the new arrangement opens up space for anti-ship missile launchers?

The monolithic funnel mast as last showcased, at DSEI last year, with the CAMM missile cells. The more recent graphic suggests a split mast, with the aft half rising higher up (apparently almost to the same height of the SCOT 5 satcom radomes on the mast). Might we be looking at a new base for sensors or a relocated pole mast? 

In the design as last showcased, the Type 26 appears to have no space available for the fitting of the traditional quadruple missile launchers employed by Harpoon, NSM, Exocet, Teseo and other missiles. This could be seen as both a weakness in regard to exportability (those missile systems remain the most prevalent on the market) and a risk to the Royal Nayy's own anti-ship missile capability in the future, as there still isn't a truly defined plan to acquire a vertical launch weapon to replace the old Harpoon. The redesign could also address this aspect, possibly.

The Type 26 program should get the go ahead by the end of the year, probably with the aim to sign a contract for the first 8 frigates, leaving the other five for another day. 
Among the hurdles to be overcome, we have to include the referendum that will decide the future of Scotland. Until the result is known, the shipbuilding programs will be somewhat restrained, including the final go away for the BAE's plan of redevelopment of the shipyards on the Clyde. The preferred option sees a 200 million upgrade to the Scotstoun facilities, to create a single, fully capable yard, with the closure of Govan and the transfer of the manpower. There is also, formally, an alternative that sees both shipyard retained, and given a more limited uplift. The ship building process split on two sites, however, is less efficient. Finally, there's the "doomsday" scenario that sees both these ideas junked, in the quest for uplifting the capacity of one of the shipyards south of the border instead, in the case Scotland walks away. Something i dearly hope does not happen, as it would bring nothing good, to no one.

 




 
Submarines

HMS Tireless is about to leave service, after having its life extended (it was planned it would decommission already last year) and after completing another long deployment which gained great media visibility when it was sent searching for the lost MH370 airplane. 
HMS Artful, the third of the Astute class submarines, has finally entered the water, many months later than originally planned. In general, the delays of the Astute class sure have kept the Royal Navy worried for a long time, and caused quite a bit of pressure. 

Artful is the first in class fitted with the Common Combat System (CCS), which uses common consoles, electronics cabinets, and commercial off-the-shelf hardware and software to create a shared computer environment. The CCS is the result of a Royal Navy initiative to streamline and future proof the fleet's combat systems, to develop more open system architectures that are more cost-effective to maintain and easier to update.

The next submarine, Audacious, will be launched incorporating further improvements. such as the Naval Extremely / Super High Frequency Satcom terminal (NEST) and a variety of enhancements grouped under the Astute Capability Sustainment Programme. 

NEST has seen the installation of a new antenna and related equipment at the Colerne satellite ground station in Wiltshire. This new equipment enables Super High Frequency communications using the british Skynet 5 satellite constellation, or Advanced Extremely High Frequency communications using the american AEHF satellite constellation.

The Rafael TORBUSTER advanced countermeasures system, which uses decoy which combine seduction and hard-kill capability, has been proposed as part of the Astute CSP by a team made up by BAE, Babcock and Rafael, but we might never get told whether it is being installed or not.When it comes to submarines, information is always sparse. 

Full new Communication and Radar Electronic Support Measures (CESM and RESM) capability has also been funded as baseline fit from Boat 4 onwards. 

The Spearfish heavyweight torpedo upgrade programme is also underway. The program includes the replacement of the two different fuels employed by the torpedo with a single one; the replacement of the warhead with a new one, compliant with Insensitive Munition rules; the digitalisation of the weapon; and a new fiber optic guide fibre replacing the current copper/cadmium wire, removing the delays in communication between the torpedo and the submarine. The end result will be almost a new weapon, with much greater capability and greater safety. Again, the details on the state of the Spearfish upgrade program are under wraps, but there has been a delay in the signature of contracts for the next phase of the work, which means delays. 

Looking ahead, to the delivery of the next Astutes and further away to the Successor SSBNs, the MOD and BAE have given green light to a 300 million project for the upgrade of the shipyard facilities in Barrow.  

The future could also include ultra-accurate navigation, completely independent from vulnerable GPS signals, thanks to a science development project ongoing for quantum positioning technology.

New OPVs

The contract for the delivery of three new OPVs should be signed soon. Little is known about these vessels, other than they will be derived from the 90m OPV design mostly known as Amazonas class, due to the ships of this type having been purchased by Brazil.
The new OPVs will have a flight deck compatible with the Merlin helicopter. What's not at all clear is the fate of the OPVs of the royal navy, as shortage of money and manpower might make these new vessels the replacements for the still young River-class. Even though the MOD has just purchased, for 39 millions, these vessels which have been operated for years under a leasing agreement.

I've already expressed my opinion that such a decision would be an inexcusable waste of money, time and good ships. While i fully understand the rationale of keeping the shipyards working to bridge the gap between the carriers and the Type 26 frigates, in order to keep the production line "hot" and in order to retain manpower and expertis, i think that withdrawing the Rivers would be a grave mistake.
The new OPVs will be extremely welcome and useful if they are kept in addition to the Rivers, not in their place.
The Rivers will be barely around 14 years old when the first new ship is delivered, in 2017, and the Royal Navy has a clear need for deployable hulls. The new OPVs, with their greater sizes and capability (including helicopter) can and should be used away from home, to relieve the frigates of some of their tasks (Caribbean, but also counter-piracy, for example), while the River continue to do what they have done well for years.

The government has right in these days published its Maritime Security strategy. The document, while being of some interest, hardly deserves the praise it received from several commenters. Moreover, the supposed "strategy" is written out in a deliberately ambivalent, vague way, especially when it comes to the new OPVs: mentioned several times in the document, they are described as a "further improvement" to the UK's maritime security capability, but not once there is a clear statement of their fate, and that of the Rivers. The official line is that the decision is left for the next SDSR. Of course.
The document has been written in such a way to allow the government to bin the Rivers and still describe the situation as an "improvement" because of the greater capabilities of the new vessels, regardless of the fact that, observing historical trends in the use of the Rivers, it is safe to say that such additional capabilities would be hardly be needed, and will only sparsely be exploited.

The hope can only be that, thanks to the very modest cost in money and manpower, the OPVs gain points in the SDSR.


Carrier Enabled Power Projection 

With HMS Queen Elizabeth to be named by the queen on July 4, and the manufacture of HMS Prince of Wales currently significantly ahead of schedule, the building of the carriers is progressing well. The program costs have been re-agreed, hopefully for the last time, and the MOD is planning ahead to reach the SDSR 2015 with a full set of options for the way ahead for CEPP. In particular, the MOD is coming up with plans for the second carrier, as well as for the vital MARS Fleet Solid Support capability, which has to deliver the ships which will replace the Fort class vessels in the 2020s.

CEPP also includes a dependency program for the delivery of amphibious capability via the carriers, a requirement made unescapable by the impossibility to fund a dedicate replacement for HMS Ocean.
The carrier includes design features such as wide assault routes and accommodation for a 250-strong reinforced Marines company, which can be expanded further depending on the composition of the air wing. Less jets means more Marines and helicopters. Deck manoeuvers, and even deck layout, are being thought out to accommodate the amphibious requirement, including concurrent jet and helicopter operations. It is possible that the deck layout selected will include 10 spots for medium helicopters operations.

In a very welcome move, the MOD has also moved to substantially close the unacceptable gap in AEW coverage, by keeping 7 Sea King ASaC in service all the way to 2018, and by speeding up the CROWSNEST program by 18 months, with the aim of having the first AEW capability on Merlin HM2 in 2018, in time to nearly completely avoid the gap.


Fleet Air Arm  

As said above, even as the Sea Kings of all other variants are withdrawn from service in 2016 as planned, 7 MK7 ASaC will be kept flying with 849 NAS up into the second half of 2018. By then, it is hoped that the initial capability of the CROWSNEST radar package for the Merlin HM2 will have been achieved, substantially closing the dangerous, unacceptable AEW gap which would have lasted for a good four years or more according to the initial plan.

As a way to prepare to the return of fixed wing naval aviation when 809 NAS will reform on F-35B, the Fleet Air Arm has taken back control of Fleet Requirements and Air Direction Unit (FRADU) from private contractor Serco. The squadron, equipped with 14 Hawk T1s, was recommissioned in Culdrose on June 6, 2013 as 736 NAS.

736 NAS is an extremely busy squadron, which has inherited all the tasks of FRADU.
Its role is serving as Maritime Aggressor Squadron, and is best known for providing threat simulation to warships conducting OST in the South Coast Exercise Areas. The Hawks, with the help of Falcon 20 aircraft loaded with towed targets and EW pods, provided by the contractor Cobham, train the royal navy in defence against air attacks.
736 NAS also delivers intercept training to the RN School of Fighter Control at Yeovilton, Close Air Support (CAS) training to 3 Cdo Bde as well as Army units, and Affiliation training to Rotary Wing Squadrons at both Culdrose and Yeovilton. It is a good place, in other words, for the Royal Navy pilots to work their way up to the rebirth of naval fixed wing aviation. 

FRADU in action, with Hawk and Falcon 20 jets, the latters equipped with a variety of EW system pods

The Fleet Air Arm has finalised its plan for the transition from Lynx MK8 to Wildcat HMA2, which will include the return of 825 NAS, which will reform out of the merge of 700W Nas and 702 NAS as the training squadron moves on from Lynx to Wildcat. 

825 NAS will be commissioned in september this year, to deliver training for the Wildcat and to form the first four ship flights. 
815 NAS will begin to convert to Wildcat from the second half of 2015. The transition will take time, and Lynx helicopters will continue to provide their service all the way up to their OSD, planned for 31 March 2017. 
815 NAS, once fully converted, will line 12 single-manned Flights at readiness for deployed operations worldwide and 2 double-manned MCT Flights at very high readiness in the UK.

One problem remains for Wildcat: the big delay in the FASGW program which has to deliver the two missiles it will use in its maritime attack role. They are not expected to be available before 2020, which means a big gap is taking shape as the Lynx force draws down and, with the Lynx, the Sea Skua missile does progressively vanish as well. 


Separately, in the Commando Helicopter Force, 847 NAS is converting to Wildcat as well, but the squadron uses the Wildcat AH1, the same variant employed by the Army, in support of the Royal Marines. 847 NAS will be the first operational Wildcat squadron.

Another transition is due to take place in the CHF, with the Sea King HC4 being replaced by the ex-RAF Merlin HC3/3A, later to become HC4 as they are fully upgraded and navalised.
While Fleet Air Arm crews have been training for a long time and the transfer of the helicopters to the Navy is underway, the first bit of naval capability will only arrive between late 2015 and early 2016, as the first 7 Merlin are delivered in interim, Phase 1 navalisation including folding rotor head, lash down points and other minor changes. These helicopters (HC3i) will bridge the gap forming as the Sea King HC4 bows out of service, replaced by helicopters which, in their current form, are unsuitable for shipboard operations.

848 NAS, the training unit for Sea King HC4, stood down in december 2013 after delivering the last training course. 846 disbanded in March 2014, leaving Sea King to move on to the Merlin. The squadron will reform in September 2014, while the RAF Merlin squadron 78 will disband as the helicopters are handed over.
845 NAS continues to serve the Marines, with a mere 11 Sea King HC4 left in service. The squadron will reform with Merlin in August 2015, and sometime in the same year the second and last RAF Merlin squadron (28 Sqn) will disband.
It does not seem to be planned to reform 848 NAS: training will probably be delivered from within the two frontline squadrons. The total number of crews in the force will drop from 43 to 37, with all of them expected to be trained come 2016.

For the disbanding RAF Squadrons, there's a little ray of hope, as one of them might stand up again with Chinook as the new HC6 arrive, but this is not confirmed at the moment.

25 Merlin helicopters will undergo upgrade and navalisation (Phase 2) including the seven interim helicopters. The full program of changes includes electric folding tail, folding rotor head, lash down points, fast rope kit, a cockpit upgrade like that of the naval HM2 helicopters, an integrated digital map system, improved CHF-specific communication systems and uplifted integrated defensive aids suite, including Generation 3 Common Missile Warning System, which actually ads the capability to locate the source of small arms and RPG fire as well.
The first fully reworked helicopter, to be known as HC4 / 4A, will be delivered in late 2017, and the deliveries won't be completed before march 2022.