Sunday, October 6, 2024

An entry ahead of the new SDSR

For the first post in literally years, I'm sharing the submission I've filed in the public consultation for the SDSR. The format of the consultation involved a long list of fixed questions that could be answered with up to 500 words each. 

This has, of course, determined the format of my entries. 



Describe the strategic context for UK Defence


Strategic context begins with geography. Always remember that the world actually looks like this, and the UK's front in any Russia scenario is to the North. 


While the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the main factor polarizing attention, the threats to UK interests go well beyond Russia. It is in the Red Sea and Middle East that UK assets have actually needed to open fire to protect allied installations and critical shipping routes, and it is towards Asia that the economic and political center of the world is shifting. While Russia represents the most obvious threat, it is not in a position to start a direct land conflict against NATO and it would be a mistake to allow Russia to tether UK foreign and Defence policy to a narrow European focus.

The priority for UK defence remains maintaining a capable, useful mix of capabilities measured against high end, state on state warfare scenarios, that can be projected where needed, across Europe and beyond.

Geography dictate that any threat against the UK originates quite some distance away, and that any operation mounted by UK forces will be expeditionary by nature and will imply thousands of kilometres of distance to be negotiated. UK forces must be able to project over those distances and be credible once in theatre. While the UK won’t be able to achieve Mass on its own, it should maintain armed forces which are as much as possible capable of “independent” action within an alliance framework. In other words, the UK force should be able to deploy with its own means (SEA-lift, AIR-lift, LAND mobility) and, as much as possible, able to take responsibility for a section of a front / part of an operation without Allies having to fill critical capability gaps. The UK contingent should come with adequate Enablers and be able to serve as core for Allies to attach to (for example in a Joint Expeditionary Force context).This would enable the UK to retain a leading role in any scenario and in any theatre. UK forces could act as an aggregator that smaller partners can join forces with, helping to generate mass, enabled by UK strategic capabilities they might otherwise not have access to. When working with greater partners with more mass and resources, UK forces should still be able to provide a complete, reliable military component that can look as autonomously as possible over a sector of the front / portion of the operation.

There can be little doubt that UK forces which best compare on the world stage with that of other nations are Navy and Air Force.The Army does not compare as well, nor is likely to be able to catch up anytime soon. While the Army conditions must be improved, this must not come to the detriment of the other Services, especially since, even in a “narrow” European scenario, the front of most immediate interest to the UK is the Scandinavian peninsula – North and Arctic Sea and Iceland area (in Cold War parlance, the GIUK gap). This is the only front where Russia and UK are virtually in direct contact, through Sea and Air.

In general, UK is fortunate in that forces which are well attuned to their NATO role will generally be valid elsewhere too.


 

Propose, in order of priority, the roles UK Defence must be capable of fulfilling 2024-2040.

If the UK will maintain its ability to secure the North Sea / High North by forward deploying in NATO context a powerful Air Force component while also putting to sea a capable fleet centered on SSNs and the Carrier Strike Group, plus the Littoral Response Groups, it will meet its vital, direct defence interest.




On Land, the UK should maintain its High North commitment through the Littoral Response Group North and, ideally, a greater Army component aligned to the task (at least initially it would come from within 1st Division) while working to deliver the full promise to NATO of a Strategic Reserve Corps of "2 Divisions with 6 brigades" under the ARRC. Obviously it will be a relatively small Corps, made of relatively small brigades, but there is no reason why it shouldn't be capable.

The need to be rapidly deployable wherever SACEUR needs them across Europe will in turn ensure the British Divisions maintain capabilities and logistical readiness that will ensure the British Army can be relevant outside of Europe too when necessary.

To achieve this result, the British Army structures will need to evolve and, in absence of a net growth to the overall manpower ceiling, some infantry battalions will need to go, not because they are unneeded, but because forming the necessary Artillery, Air Defence, Drone, Logistics and Engineering units will be far more critical. The current structure is dramatically short of these key enablers and this will need fixing.


The wider context of a major NATO clash with Russia has not changed much. 


In Europe, the UK's priority is dictated by geography and will always come down to reinforcing the Northern flank of NATO, working in close cooperation with the Joint Expeditionary Force partners and bringing naval and air elements"up threat"in Iceland, Scandinavia and at Sea to contain Russian navaland air elements which are a direct threat to the UK mainland. Through the JEF, and the Littoral Response Group (North), which also hinges on the long standing cooperation with the Netherlands' own Marines, the UK is also committed to reinforcing the Allies ashore.

The UK is also committed to putting a British Corps (ARRC) of eventually 2Divisions at the call of SACEUR as a strategic reserve that can be rapidly deployed "along the entire NATO front in Europe".

This will require a well stocked, well trained force that can move quickly and that has the necessary strategic lift in place to get where SACEUR needs it.

UK reach and commitments to the Northern NATO flank require amphibious capability to be sustained and ideally enhanced.

The need to protect key infrastructure at sea and the Deterrent requite dedicate Deep Sea Data Gathering and thus put urgency on the need to procure the planned and very much necessary purpose-designed vessel for this (planned as the second Multi-Role Ocean Surveillance hull).

The Reserve should be reorganized to provide a more realistic seedcorn for expansion in time of crisis. Probably the Army Reserve would benefit from being organized in a couple of "shadow brigades", one dedicate to supporting the Heavy armour (and thus 3rd Division) and one (or more) dedicate to lighter,more easily regenerated light role / light mechanized capability in support of 1st Division.



Describe how existing UK Defence capability and the current 10-year programme match the demands of the roles and capabilities identified for 2024-2040, highlighting and prioritising critical gaps.

Existing equipment plans are mostly coherent with UK tasks in Europe and beyond. Some areas that require additional attention include:

Suppression of Enemy Air Defence: the introduction of SPEAR 3, SPEAR EW and ECRS2 radar with jamming capability (this on Typhoon Tranche 3) are helpful, but the absence of an anti-radar missile since the withdrawal of ALARM in 2013 is a concern. Adoption of the AARGM ER missile for both F-35 and Typhoon (Germany and Italy are already planning to adopt and integrate it) would greatly increase capability. Retrofitting the ECR Mk2 radar to Typhoon Tranche 2 should also be a priority.

Air to Air refuelling: the "nordic air force" (Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark) is THE obvious and critical partner for the RAF in an European fight, while US and Australia are other obvious main partners the UK will collaborate with. All these partners, and others (Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan etc) will use F-35As that can only be refuelled through the Boom method. The VOYAGER tankers of the RAF at present are not fitted with boom and cannot contribute in any way (and can also NOT refuel the RAF's own C-17, P-8, E-7 and Rivet Joint fleets). Fitting Boom to at least a portion of the fleet would enable the RAF to offer invaluable support to Nordic partners in Europe, and to Allies everywhere.

Ground based air defence must be enhanced at a brisker pace and with greater ambition. Existing SKY SABRE batteries can be quickly enhanced adopting the Extended Range variant of the CAMM missile, while development of the even longer ranged CAMM MR with Poland should be properly supported.

Additional SKY SABRE batteries are needed, and the Army's air defence regiments should probably be reorganized into hybrid regiments that, a bit like the PILICA+ batteries in Poland, combine CAMM with SHORAD. Adding a gun in anti-drone function should be a priority, with the PALADIN system having already been tested providing a good, UK-made candidate for rapid adoption. Directed energy weapons such as laser and RF (projects DRAGONFIRE, SWINTON, EALING) promise great capability which however might not be fully reliable for quite some time, making a gun-based solution a precious complement and stopgap.

Additional SHORAD Batteries should become an organic part of manoeuvre brigades: in other countries, a SHORAD battery is commonly found within the Brigade's artillery regiment, for example.

BOXER vehicles fitted with SKYRANGER gun turrets and missiles represent a good, readily available solution to succeed to STORMER and bring(thanks to the 30/35mmgun) increased anti-drone capability.

The Navy's Type45s should be equipped with new-production ASTER 30 Block1 NT missiles as soon as practicable. Low-volume production of these new and improved missiles would help realize the much needed "always on" model for key weapons production in the UK.

Logistic lift is known to be insufficient. The number of MAN SV EPLS trucks capable of carrying containers, for example, even if recently uplifted, remains more than 700 short of the endorsed Land requirement. This should be addressed, including by standing up new regiments to fill known gaps (for the support of 1 DRS BCT and 4 Light BCT, for example).



Propose how UK Defence's contribution to NATO should be enhanced as a driving requirement of capability and activity, including through prioritising defence export potential.

The UK contribution to NATO should be centred on the two Key roles:

 

-              The protection of the Northern Flank, with a focus on Carrier Strike Group operations, ASW, maritime urveillance, air defence and amphibious reinforcement of Scandinavia (Littoral Response Group North, in cooperation with the Netherlands's own amphibious force)

-              The provision of a credible British Corps to SACEUR for the Strategic Reserve role.

 

It might seem counter-intuitive and politically unpalatable, but to improve its contribution to NATO the British Army needs to offload the commitment to Estonia to other partners. The British Army is simply not large enough to deliver, at the same time, an armour-centric Battlegroup in the Forward Land Force (with commitment to uplift to a full brigade in time of crisis) and the Strategic Reserve role.

This is not debatable but rather fact: 3rd Division is the only heavy division the UK has, and only comprises 2 armoured brigades. If one of them is committed to Estonia, it cannot at the same time be available as a strategic reserve for SACEUR. Double-hatting is not serious and is not workable.

Partners should be approached in a mature way and the Forward Land Force role in Estonia should fall on another Army within the new NATO Force Model. Other countries are due to take Regional defence roles, and this should include replacing the british element in Estonia so the British Army can, in turn, ensure SACEUR's critical reserve is truly available and ready to deploy when and where needed.

2 Army programs in particular stand out for export potential in a NATO context and possibly beyond: the Technology Demonstrator 5 project to integrated advanced lethal and ISR payloads into GMLRS rockets and PrSM missiles would result in a massive capability growth and most likely in substantial export orders.





The other project with great potential is the Mounted Close Combat Overwatch project centered on ground-launched Brimstone for long-range anti-armour capability. This has in some ways already obtained an export win of sorts with Poland having selected Brimstone for its own long range ATGW need.

There is obvious potential in several of the UK's drone projects as well: uncrewed adjunct aircraft, the HYDRA armed drone, one-way strike solutions and the PROTEUS uncrewed helicopter for the Navy could all prove successful in securing export deals.

DSTL’s work on an uncrewed, highly mobile ultra-lightweight 127mm gun on the LAMP mobility platform should also continue as it would answer the need of Marine, Para/Airmobile and Mountain troops in particular and could secure interest in multiple countries.

 

 

Describe how the current support to Ukraine is integrated into UK Defence programmes and activities and propose measures in priority order to sustain and enhance this support to at least 2027.

The UK could provide aid to Ukraine while improving its own defences in multiple ways, as the decision to restart manufacture of large calibre barrels in the UK proves.

With GMLRS rockets being a key asset for the British Army as well as one of the most successful weapons employed by Ukraine, the UK should look at establishing production at home. Lockheed Martin reportedly was willing to bring GMLRS work to Ampthill and this should be a priority.

Again on GMLRS, the already mentioned Techical Demonstrator 5 could be a game changer: Ukraine could probably benefit from early access to some prototype systems, which in turn would support spiral development for the UK's own needs.

There is great scope for even more cooperation on drones, lethal and not, and on electronic warfare, including C-UAS jammers.

Ukraine is also continuously in need of anti-air missiles. France and Italy have supplied SAMP-T batteries firing Aster 30 B1 missiles, and MBDA UK will soon be remanufacturing existing Aster 30 missiles of the Royal Navy into B1s. There might be potential to increase production capability in the UK and help keep Ukraine's batteries armed.

Similarly, CAMM/CAMM ER, much needed to increase the British Army's GBAD capability, could be key to help meet Ukraine's needs as well.

The recent work to increase the ability to produce ammunition in the UK and manufacture artillery barrels is welcome, but one critical weakness remains unaddressed: the production within the UK of energetics and propellants. A core capability in country would be fundamental for resilience in times of crisis when supply from abroad might dry up.

 

Describe and recommend how the UK Defence homebase is made secure and resilient in confrontation, crisis and conflict, including in enabling full mobilisation and campaign endurance when needed.

Ther esilience of the UK realistically depends on factors other than military. Increased capacity to produce energy domestically, reduced reliance on imports would be the most decisive factors.

The military specifically, and the UK’s ability to mobilise for a major war are afflicted by excessive centralisation as a result of decades of efficiencies. A successful long-range missile strike that managed to hit a few critical installations (for example Lossiemouth, critical to QRA, maritime patrol aircraft and AEW), Waddington, Ashchurch (most of the Army’s vehicle fleet is to be found stored there), Donnington (general stores) and Kineton (ammunition) would be enough to have an absolutely crippling effect on the ability to properly mobilise in the first place.

Strengthening Ground based air defence can help, but there are not enough resources to attempt a complete coverage. For sure, a resident SKY SABRE battery at least in Lossiemouth and other key locations on the eastern coast would not be a bad investment. Longer range air defences would help, but would require massive investment.

Project LEWIS for a new anti-ballistic radar would provide early warning to the UK and to the benefit of the whole of NATO, assuming the Government remains committed to it.


Project LEWIS has seen the UK secure US authorization for the procurement a Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) (for construction on the island that gives the project its name...?), but it is one of those background programs no one ever talks much about. It's also a promise to NATO formulated years ago. 

The best defence against such an attack, which at present can come only from Russia, will always be to deploy the Armed Forces, particularly the Navy and Air Force, “up threat” to intercept Russian ships, submarines and long range aviation over Scandinavia and the North Sea. Forward deployment of the carrier strike group and of RAF jets to Iceland and Norway would no doubt be an early measure taken at the first sign of serious crisis.

In general, the worst threats to the UK will manifest not so much directly against the UK mainland but abroad. The Red Sea shipping crisis is an eloquent example. Even in a “Russia” scenario, the UK will be defended first of all at range up in the High North, not so much directly from its shores. Geography dictates this.

As a consequence, it is non-discretionary to maintain military force that is expeditionary and has the logistic “legs” to deploy where needed.

 

Propose measures in priority order that establish how UK Defence transitions to the optimum balance of regular, reserve, civil servant, and industry people across all standing tasks and commitments and on mobilisation. Recommend the recruitment, education, training and retention measures required to achieve this.

The topic of Reserves for the UK is complex, again because of the geo-political truth that dictates that state threats to the UK will manifest away from the homeland. The frequent mention of Finland’s reserves, or Poland’s territorial units is of limited relevance to the UK: light infantry formations for local defence have little to no relevance for the UK, unlike for those countries who would be fighting on and for the very home turf. Units equal to Poland’s territorials could be formed, but in any war scenario they would have to be lifted across Europe to the point of need, unlike Poland’s own.

The old Territorial Army used to have a demonstrable ability to deploy to the Continent in support of regulars during the Cold War, but it’s undoubtedly harder to do that now, and it is proving difficult to deploy formed bodies of Reservists during “peacetime”. There are a few cases, but all pretty small scale and relatively sparse over the years.

The matter of Reserves is tricky and not easily solved. It’s true reserve infantry battalions cost a lot less than regular ones, but that is of little relevance if their output is not only much smaller but also relatively unpredictable due to uncertain availability of people. Any expansion of their combat role, in addition, would require equipment and vehicle fleets that at the moment simply do not exist.

A serious assessment is needed to determine what the Reserve can actually do in “peacetime”(it would be fairer to say in times of competition/confrontation short of all out war) and what they can be expected to do during major mobilisation.

If all-out war ever happened, there is every reason to believe the Reserve would show up in decent force, but at present it is at best questionable whether it could be equipped and actually employed as anything other than individual / small sub-units replacements and some degree of augmentation. There is an obvious shortage of combat vehicle fleets, for example. Formed reserve units would only be of the lightest kind.

There will probably need to be a more neatly “separated” plan for those Reserve individuals and units which are available, willing and indeed needed in “peacetime” and those formed bodies which would only realistically come together for occasional major exercise and ultimately in case of a real major crisis.

The latter formations, which should probably be organized as coherent brigades for best effect, would need to have a well defined, realistic role attuned with what equipment will be actually available in the depots or in a realistic emergency procurement/production plan to outfit them.

It would probably be beneficial to organize a “shadow” heavy brigade of Reservists, recognizing however that as things stand the armour to make them deployable as a formed unit simply does not exist in the inventory. They would deploy essentially as augmentees / casualty replacements.

Light brigades could be organized to be “deployable” in a specific format which will not be equal to that of regular formations and should thus develop its own Concepts, much like Poland’s territorial formations but with the difference, again, that UK Reserves would be deployed to fight far away from home.

It might yet prove to be the case that a larger Reserve is not in fact the right answer if larger doesn’t work out to more available/capable. More capable will require dedicate vehicle fleets and equipment holdings which will rapidly make the Reserve far less financially attractive overall.

Roles and expectations must be defined first.

 

 

Propose how the maritime (including littoral) domain is developed to contribute to an Integrated Force, recommending measures that accelerate modernisation and transformation and identifying existing capabilities and programmes that do not support this.

The development of uncrewed assets such as PROTEUS (rotary wing), VIXEN (fixed wing) and SEA PROTECTOR (MQ-9B modified with the wing-king for short take off and landing on the carriers) would massively enhance the carrier strike group's ability to deploy and fight up-threat. SEA PROTECTOR could be ready within a few years and, equipped with suitable podded radars and sonobuoy launchers, could bring extremely long endurance airborne early warning cover against missile attacks and long range, persistent anti-submarine patrol.

PROTEUS will help make up for the insufficient numbers of manned MERLIN helicopters.

Carrierborne F-35B (the expansion of the fleet to atleast 74 jets in 3– ideally at least4 – Squadrons should remain an absolute priority) and drones ensure the UK can confidently deploy far from home with the indispensable air cover.

 

The Littoral Response Groups give the UK a persistent forward deployed force around which larger operations can take shape. In a NATO context, the Littoral Response Group North represent the continuation of cooperation with the Netherlands and assistance for the Nordic Allies. The future Multi Role Support Ship will need to be more survivable than current amphibious ships while preserving the ability to lift and send ashore even the heaviest Army vehicles. The new vessels will need to combine both aviation capability and heavy surface lift capability, with a well dock sized for LCUs and mexeflotes operations. Room for containers, including on the weather deck, will give flexibility to embark modular weapons (a modular CAMM missile system should be a priority) and capabilities (Role 2+ and 3 medical facilities) for deployment.

 

Frigates, destroyers and submarines with land strike weapons will contribute to the suppression of enemy air defence and will strike high value targets. They have a great deterrent value as well. General purpose frigates and pureOPVs are no longer particularly useful in a new context of state on state warfare risks: the new generation vessels should have space and services reserved for embarking drones and modular mission payloads / containerized weapon systems that make them more useful combat platforms by expanding their base fit.

 

The MCM component is currently based on small ships which are not very deployable nor very useful beyond their specialized role, but the transition is already underway. Drone-based systems for MCM are more capable and more flexible but the necessary motherships to project those drones at range have not yet been built. If they were, the transition could be accelerated further. Swift procurement of a first mothership would allow the return of the currently employed BAY-class vessel in the Gulf to the amphibious role.

Modular capability, such as CAMM missiles in containers (NavyPODs) and portable lasers can help ensure the new Multi Role Support Ships and MCM motherships can deploy with the necessary defences on board, while saving on build costs. Such modular capability could also follow the Marines ashore, delivering further effect very efficiently.

The Littoral Response Group will need long range strike weapons that can be inserted from the sea and then used from land, against the land and against the sea. GMLRS and PrSM missiles, common with the Army, would achieve this but would ideally require a lighter, more deployable launcher like the defunct LIMAWS(R) on Supacat platform, or the uncrewed ROGUE of the US Marines.

If the Marines can go ashore with GMLRS and CAMM, they can create safe havens for the fleet and prove a real strategic concern to the enemy.

  

  

Propose how the land domain is developed to contribute to an Integrated Force, recommending measures that accelerate modernisation and transformation and identifying existing capabilities and programmes that do not support this.

Land will contribute through growt of Long Range Fires, primarily through the Land Deep Fires programme to grow the number of M270 launchers and their ammunition.

-              GMLRS ER, which should include Alternative Warhead to restore area-attack capability, 150 km reach

-              PrSM missile 500+ km

-              Land Precision Strike will deliver extended overwatch

-              Technology Demonstrator 5, a UK effort, to integrate advanced payloads into GMLRS and perhaps PrSM, including reconnaissance drones and intelligent sub-munitions, mines, ISR sensors, EW devices and jammers. If realized, these capabilities would be transformational and are sure to gain export orders.

Further long range strike options will come through drones. Lethal drones are needed at all tactical levels:

small ones such as D40 would restore infantry’s ability to deliver HE on indirect trajectory.

Fires have to make up for lack of mass. The PHALANX model for Platoons and Companies, which pushes JAVELIN and 81 mm mortar down to Coy level, should be adopted.

At battlegroup level, adoption of 120 mm mortars and Mounted Close Combat Overwatch is key.

 

A battery of M270 should become organic to each Heavy brigade, alongside RCH155, primarily for Land Precision Strike overwatch. This seems the correct tactical level where to employ this new capability.




GMLRS ER and PrSM would primarily be used by the GMLRS Regiments held within Deep Recce Strike BCT if not even aligned directly to Corps level.

Another GMLRS regiment should be added, equipped with a lightweight launcher (like USMC’s ROGUE or resurrected LIMAWS-R) to ensure 16 Air Assault and 3 Commando Brigades have access to this strategic system and can more easily move it (including under slung by CHINOOK).

GBAD will need to grow. CAMM ER should be added to SKY SABRE urgently; more batteries should be formed.

Each Brigade should grow an organic, mobile SHORAD battery, on BOXER Skyranger in the Heavy formations. 30 / 35 mm gun adds cost-effective counter-drone capability.

Directed energy weapons work should continue towards a useable capability to be fielded as soon as practicable.

12 and 16 RA regiments probably need to evolve mixing SKY SABRE with SHORAD, both for their own survivability and for improved effect. Guns (such as PALADIN from British company MSI, which has already been tested) would add resilience against drones.

In order to deliver the “British Corps”, 4 Brigade will need to be rebuilt, with Combat Support and Combat Service Support regiments it currently lacks.

4 and 7 Brigades should both be made medium mechanized with FOXHOUND and a circa-20 tons Troop Carrier as planned within the Land Mobility Programme.

Ideally, 1st Division should have its own lightweight Deep Recce Strike formation. Resources are highly unlikely to be sufficient, so 16 Air Assault Brigade could be adapted to deliver this role where applicable while preserving its more unique deployability aspects.

3rd Division’s armoured brigades would benefit from putting a remotely operated turret on ARES and adapting the internal fit of these new vehicles to restore a degree of IFV capability.

BOXER would then deliver supporting roles by adapting the current plan for Mission Modules. A 120 mm turreted mortar and SHORAD should be priorities.

Ideally, 12 and 20 brigades should be “square” and composed of Combined Arms Regiments of CR3 and ARES. At an absolute minimum, the current 3 regular MBT regiments should be preserved by cancelling plans to convert King’s Royal Hussars from MBT to Armoured Recce.

Security Force Assistance Brigade should be sacrificed to free resources. In general, rebuilding needed CS and CSS formations is priority and in absence of manpower growth, accessory missions should be scaled back to recoup posts for more urgent priorities.

  

 

Propose how the air and space domains are developed to contribute to an Integrated Force, recommending measures that accelerate modernisation and transformation and identifying existing capabilities and programmes that do not support this.

The Air Force contribution to the Integrated Force is fundamental, but its ability to intervene in the face of powerful enemy anti-air defences must be increased if this is to continue to be the case even in high intensity warfare. EW, uncrewed aircraft companion for crewed jets, SPEAR 3 and SPEAR EW are going to be fundamental, and it would be extremely important to retrofit the ECR Mk2 radar with jamming capability on the Tranche 2 Typhoons too, since they make up most of the RAF’s numbers.

The procurement of AARGM ER anti-radar missiles, as already pursued by allies, should be the next step.

 

MQ-9B PROTECTOR’s potential overland is threatened by its vulnerability to enemy action. As it stands, PROTECTOR is virtually helpless against any enemy attack: procurement of a Self Defence pod should be a priority.

PROTECTOR should then be developed with suitable radar and podded sonobuoy dispensers to become an adjunct maritime patrol solution supporting P-8 Poseidon, especially in the High North.

PROTECTOR should also be equipped with the Short Take Off and Landing wing-kit to enable it to deploy directly on the aircraft carriers. The addition of suitable radars in pods would enable SEA PROTECTOR to deliver high altitude, long endurance Airborne Early Warning; in Maritime Patrol configuration it would deliver long duration anti-submarine patrols. In both cases, this would ease the burden on the insufficient number of MERLIN HM2 helicopters, which could then go back to focusing on ASW. In AEW, PROTECTOR would deliver greater capability than CROWSNEST and could in part supplement the insufficient number of E-7 WEDGETAIL too.

 

It would be highly beneficial to pursue a capability similar to the USAF’s RAPID DRAGON: pallets that can be air-dropped from cargo aircraft to launch multiple cruise missiles. A single A400 could be made to launch as many Storm Shadows as 4 or perhaps even 8 Typhoon, at far greater ranges from the UK, with next to no need for air to air refuelling. For a modest investment, this would bring quasi-strategic bomber capability back to the RAF’s roster.

 

Probably the most transformational capability that can be pursued, however, is the ISTARI multi-ISR constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites. The OBERON-type satellites, with their radar sensor, will be particularly important to gather intelligence and targeting in all weathers. The use of laser to securely transmit huge amounts of data (TITANIA demonstrator) could also be game-changing.

In general, while LEO satellites are small and individually less capable than larger satellites so far favoured by most nations, they present advantages:

-          The UK industry is one of the main LEO small satellites producers worldwide

-          The use of multiple small satellites makes the constellation more survivable

-          It is conceivable that additional LEO sats could be “rapidly” deployed into orbit in time of need

-          The maturation of launch options directly from UK soil open up an opportunity to have UK satellites, launched from the UK, delivering sovereign intelligence capability

 


It would be highly beneficial to procure a number of air to air refuelling pods for A400M, to open up the ability to refuel MERLIN HC4 (Littoral Response Group) and CHINOOK (Army, Special Forces) in flight as well as have extra AAR capability for jets in times of need.

As mentioned elsewhere, adding Boom to at least some VOYAGER tankers would be a massive force multiplier by opening up options to extend E-7, P-8, RIVET JOINT and even C-17 in Flight, as well as making the RAF capable of supporting its main partners, including the F-35A of the “Nordic Air Force” in Scandinavia.

 

 

Propose how UK Special Forces are developed as part of an Integrated Force and in support of UK National Security and resilience.

In a high intensity warfare context, the role of Special Forces is likely to primarily revolve around deep reconnaissance and target acquisition in favour of the integrated force. The Army Special Operations Brigade, in particular, should have this as a key role for its Rangers, which should thus be organized and equipped with the necessary mobility, sensors and communications to scout deep beyond the Forward Edge of Battle Area.

Special Forces will of course retain their shock action and direct assault capability as well.

 

 

Propose how to improve financial management and administration across Defence, meeting HMG standards of accountability and identifying how more rapid adoption of digital technology will modernise culture, organisation and ways of working.

The one reform that would have the greatest effect on the handling of Defence budget would be one that favoured flexibility over rigid annuality parameters and that created a planning mechanism more akin to the Defence Planning Law in France. Government and Opposition alike need to have more visibility and more say on how long-term defence plans are set out and should vote regularly on those plans to ensure neither side can offer big promises while in Opposition only to deliver the opposite if Elected.

 

A more credible, long-term commitment to capabilities, programs and structures would give the Services and Industry the confidence needed to approach programs in annual increments. Currently, UK defence spends years and years trying to plan every financial detail of enormous, decade-long programs, generating famine periods followed by gigantic monolithic contracts which later invariably encounter problems due to inflation, unforeseen events, changed requirements and the delays that end up regularly being inflicted upon programmes to fit within annuality requirements. Enormous amounts of equipment are purchased in big contracts because Industry doesn't trust the government to come back if a project is split in tranches, and the Services are terrified of losing their chance (and budget) is they don't commit it. This needs to change. Industry and Services alike must be put in a situation in which they are more comfortable ordering 100 or so vehicles a year within a framework, rather than order 523 BOXERs in one go, to make an example. This would make it easier to control expenditure year on year on big projects without the need for shock cancellations.

 

Requirements must be set, endorsed, voted upon by both sides of the House, and then delivered incrementally year on year with industry and armed forces reasonably confident that the entire thing won't collapse the moment there is a new General Election and yet another SDSR looking for cuts.

 

 

Propose how UK Defence can build relationships with allies, partners and alliances as a strategic strength for the UK

AUKUS is the most impressive example of mutually beneficial relationship, and GCAP will do much in turn to keep Japan and Italy close to the UK.

 

There is obvious scope for more cooperation. BOXER with Germany, Australia and the Netherlands, for example. With Germany, synergies have been found in the TRITON program to jointly procure a replacement for the M3 rig; in the joint development of ammunition for Challenger 3; in the RCH155 artillery program, in FOST naval training, and hopefully in the future this can continue through the UK procuring the Skyranger turret for BOXER, like Germany already is doing, to enhance anti-air and anti-drone defence.

 

Type 26, if selected by Norway, could represent a formidable area of cooperation in the context of ASW on the Northern flank of NATO. There is potential for cooperation over P-8 POSEIDON too, and on MQ-9B PROTECTOR, particularly once it is fitted to also deliver maritime patrol / ASW. Norway has a known interest. Both countries employ the Sting Ray torpedo and this might continue in the future should Norway decide to follow the Mod 2 development now started in the UK.

 

Poland ties are strong thanks to CAMM / SKY SABRE and the joint development of the new CAMM MR munition. Poland has also acquired BRIMSTONE. Further synergies can be built upon these capabilities. Poland is about to become the second user of APACHE helicopters worldwide and the British Army Air Corps could do much to assist them along the way. The two nations would benefit from joint armament purchases for the APACHE fleets and from joint development of conceps and capabilities relating to the AH-64E.

Poland has also acquired AW-149s which the UK is considering as New Medium Helicopter solution.

I again stress the importance of TD5 and the advanced payloads for GMLRS rockets: this project could be a real winner in the field and on the market, and more GMLRS users should be involved as soon as possible to help build momentum.

 

These are some of the main examples. Those equipment points of contact bring mutual advantages, ease interoperability and create a wider user community to share the costs of modernisation with, while deepening mutual understanding and favouring common solutions.

 

The UK should consider more direct purchases from partners in return for defence sales. For example, cooperation with Norway on the VANGUARD concept for large motherships would deliver a good solution for the Royal Navy requirement while probably representing a welcome return for Norway's eventual selection of the Type 26 as its new frigate.

Sunday, September 11, 2022

Does Ukraine salvage STRIKE?

 

The quick exploitation of the gap that the Ukrainians have punched in a lightly-held section of the Kharkiv front and in general the successful use of wheeled AFVs has caused some legit discussion about whether the Ukrainian experience supports the British Army’s STRIKE concept.

This is a discussion to be had, although I’m not sure we have all of the necessary information yet, and might not have it for quite some time still.

What i think must be said, already now, is that we should be very careful in mixing “rapid movement of wheeled AFVs” with “STRIKE”, because we were told in no uncertain terms that the two things were quite different and well separated.

I think no one has any real doubt about the viability and usefulness of wheeled mechanized formations, and their ability to move quickly along roads. Wheeled Mechanized Brigades have existed in multiple countries for decades, and in general in the history of warfare infantry has followed tanks in wheeled trucks (or in half-tracks) for most of the time mechanization has been a thing.

Remember that tracked AFVs to carry infantry into battle appeared only late in World War II, and essentially went into operation only in the British and Canadian armies with the KANGAROOs, after all. Later, the Soviet union has had a multitude of Motor Rifle Brigades combining MBTs and wheeled BTRs of various marks. The British Army used to have significant wheeled armoured components, and in the Cold War it has SAXON to work as a literal battle taxi to bring troops forwards to reinforce BAOR. 

In short: tanks (as in, actual MBTs) + Wheels is not new, is not revolutionary and is, ultimately, not STRIKE.

If you think Ukraine in any way vindicates British Army STRIKE brigade you have first to prove Ukraine formations actually bear any resemblance to STRIKE. Because if what we are talking about is actually a mechanized phalanx  exploiting a breakthrough, that is not new, and is not STRIKE. How many examples could we list, from the fall of France in 1940 to the breakout from Normandy and beyond...?



The British Army did not say it was building a mechanized brigade and it did not copy any of the medium, all-wheeled brigade that have proliferated in various Armies all around the world. The British Army said it had come up with a new concept, a new way of fighting that exploited dispersion to “penetrate an Anti-Access, Area Denial (A2AD) “bubble” and begin its disintegration”. This is how Chief General Staff Sir Nick Carter sold the concept from the onset, and how it was experimented and engineered, as explained years later by Brigadier James Martin, commander of 1st Armoured Infantry Brigade/STRIKE experimentation group between November 2018 and july 2020.

If i had to find a direct counterpart to the STRIKE brigade, i would probably point to the original CENTAURO-centric brigades imagined by the Italian army in the late Cold War. CENTAURO, having anti-tank capability, was supposed to "race" along roads to meet an enemy penetration, and more specifically an amphibious assault by the Soviet Mediterranean Squadron on Italy's long and exposed coast. It had to contain the russians, successfully grappling with an heavier force for long enough for heavier allied formations to also arrive. 

STRIKE was described as a quick reaction tool that would self-deploy "from Catterick to Tallin" to contain a russian assault, so there is some similarity. But in practice, that's also as far as that similarity goes, because STRIKE then diverges in both concepts and execution.  

 

STRIKE as a concept

Being the commander of the very brigade that was due to become the first STRIKE formation, Brigadier James Martin ought to be the voice we should be listening to when trying to understand what sets STRIKE apart from a conventional mechanized brigade.


Brigadier James Martin speaks from minute 28.45



Speaking at the RUSI Land Warfare Conference 2019, the brigadier was clear on Dispersion being the core of the whole project, and specifically said:

“fighting dispersed provides opportunity for decisive action that could otherwise be pretty difficult to come by. It allows for levels of infiltration, penetration and unpredictability that can decisively threaten a peer opponent Command & Control, his echelon forces and of course its logistic elements”.

There cannot be any doubt that what he summarizes as “dislocation at scale” is targeted at peer enemies and is supposed to allow the STRIKE sub-units to infiltrate the enemy front and threaten command posts, echelon and logistics in its rear.

In my rather less charitable way to describe it: the British Army expected STRIKE to go directly to Exploitation without having to achieve a Breakthrough.

He further specifies that experimentation has looked at brigade frontage of 82 to 100 km width, up to 100 km in depth

“beyond the traditional FEBA (forward edge of the battle area), if that concept still has relevance”

He then reaffirmed the bit about operational marches of 2.000 kms (the infamous “Catterick to Tallin” line that Carter had used all the way back in 2015) and tactical advances / investments along up to 12 different routes, with sub-unit dispersion “well beyond the confines of the kilometre grid square”

In other words, experimentation up to 2019 had supposedly proven the feasibility, and indeed the effectiveness of the idea as it was first conceived in 2015. How fortunate!

In more recent times there has been a sort of revisionism about STRIKE, led by a 2020 article from “STRIKE prophet” on uklandpower.com, written pretty literally to respond to my criticisms. According to this new current, STRIKE is a perfectly sensible “screening and exploitation force”, built on past operations and proven, clear concepts.

I find it instructive that Brigadier James Martin talks about covering and exploiting only once in his address about STRIKE. He does so when addressing lethality, and saying that STRIKE only needs to be “competitive with, not necessarily superior” to an enemy heavier force. He goes on to add that in experimentation this was achieved by “consistently privileging anti-armour capabilities across the brigade in the forms of organic, mounted and dismounted ATGW in every Platoon and Troop as well as some CSS elements”. This, he went on saying, enabled the STRIKE brigade to “survive, operate and win as both a covering and exploitation force”.

Ukraine does indeed prove how much damage can be caused by having ample availability of mounted and dismounted ATGW capabilities, but then again I don’t think there ever was  a doubt about this particular point.   

I don’t have any doubt about the viability of what is still, in the end, a mechanized brigade to provide a screening / covering and an exploitation function, but if this was the point, there would be no need to call it “STRIKE” and pretend it was a new and revolutionary thing.

The British Army intended STRIKE to do things differently and achieve some extraordinary effects, as Brigadier Martin so aptly explained.

If mechanized brigades do well in Ukraine, that has next to zero relevance to STRIKE. I don’t think there ever was a doubt on the usefulness of mechanized brigades and indeed on the mobility of wheeled AFVs. But since it was called STRIKE because it was going to be something different, something more, it can only be considered validated if we observe something on the battlefield that rhymes with what makes STRIKE unique.

The breakthrough in Kharkiv does not look like a single brigade exploiting by dispersion on a 100 x 100 km battle area, sorry. It just does not.

STRIKE bde didn't have MBTs but AJAX. Is any of Ukraine's mech battlegroups deliberately trying to fight without MBTs but using IFVs in medium armour fashion?

STRIKE bde was supposed to have a 100 Km front. Is it happening in Ukraine?

STRIKE talked of exploitation without breakthrough, purely by dispersion/infiltration. Any evidence of anything similar proving feasible on the ground?

If none of STRIKE’s defining characteristics are to be observed, we cannot possibly see a validation of them in the ongoing operations.

 

 

STRIKE as executed

I repeatedly made the point that a concept is ultimately only as good as its execution, so we have to also consider what the STRIKE brigade actually looked like and the context in which they appeared.

STRIKE prophet and others go on to claim that STRIKE is supposedly platform-agnostic, but the reality is that the Army considered the replacement of MASTIFF (used in some of the experimentation, by the way) as absolutely indispensable. The procurement of the Mechanized Infantry Vehicle (for which BOXER was eventually selected, as we know) was moved forwards from 2029 to 2023, and the STRIKE brigade IOC depended literally on BOXER becoming available.

As we know, each STRIKE brigade was going to have 2 Regiments of AJAX (removed from the armoured infantry brigades) and 2 infantry battalions mounted in BOXER APC. One of those AJAX regiments was going to be a “Medium Armour” formation tasked with providing tank-like support to the infantry, despite armament and protection being unchanged.


Future Soldier put an end to STRIKE brigades plans and with WARRIOR going out of service, BOXER is no longer heading to Catterick at all. WARRIOR's demise leaves plenty of empty garages around Bulford and Tidworth. 


All my doubts about STRIKE brigades stand, starting from the AJAX – BOXER mix, which would have had inexorable consequences for the ability of STRIKE brigades to conduct those long operational marches. 

It is telling that the British Army has converted 77 Oshkosh tanker tractors into “Medium Equipment Transporters” with trailers rated for 44 tons payloads. These would have been indispensable to carry AJAX (and at the same time not sufficient) during a STRIKE brigade operational march.

This is particularly ineffective because between AJAX and BOXER it is the former that has the sensors and the firepower that are meant to enable STRIKE to fight and be competitive with enemy heavy / heavier forces. It is AJAX that has the sensors to acquire targets and direct joint Fires.

In a workable STRIKE brigade, AJAX should have been wheeled and able to ride on into battle in the very vanguard. To return to my earlier comparison with the italian example from the 80s, AJAX was supposed to be STRIKE's very own CENTAURO. But while CENTAURO has MBT-like firepower with a  105 mm (and now 120 mm in CENTAURO 2) and is wheeled, AJAX has the firepower of a IFV and is tracked. 

AJAX was hammered into STRIKE for lack of alternatives, not because it was ever thought for anything resembling STRIKE's CONOPS. And allow to say me one thing: if you have to deal with METs, you might just as well deal with HETs (a bit bigger and with one extra axle, yes, but otherwise entirely comparable) and carry actual MBTs. Which, unsurprisingly, is what mechanized formations that include both tracks and wheels tend to do, all around the world, whether it’s a soviet / Russian Motor Rifle Brigade or a german armoured brigade or a French heavy brigade. 

Either you don't have tracks at all, to fully capitalize on the long range mobility of wheels, or those tracks tend to belong to MBTs. STRIKE's mix was very unique, and very sub-optimal. 



The operational debut of MET during IRON SURGE, the flash reinforcement of the battlegroup in Estonia following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. You can appreciate how little practical difference there is, at the end of the day, between HETs and METs. Investment in more HETs and METs, but to quickly carry MBTs and WARRIORs respectively, would have made more of a difference for the British Army's ability to quickly move towards battle than adding a wheeled APC does. 


It was also extremely dubious whether Brigadier Martin’s point about availability of mounted and dismounted ATGW at all level was ever going to be realized. The Overwatch variant of AJAX (more accurately, technically a sub-variant of the ARES) was cancelled years ago now, and while Battle Group Organic Anti-Armour is now its own program, hopefully to result in ground-launched BRIMSTONEs, it is not yet anywhere near being in service.

A recent US authorization for the Foreign Military Sales of 513 lightweight JAVELIN Command and Launch Units also includes an unspecified number of electronic assemblies to enable the fitting of a single JAVELIN tube on the RS4/PROTECTOR remote weapon station used on ARES and BOXER, but apart from this there is no real evidence of any big investment in new mounted ATGW capabilities.


Variants and sub-variants breakdown of the BOXER Batch 1 order. It is assumed the "Recce/Fire Support Vehicle" was eventually going to get JAVELIN integrated on the RS4 RWS, but there is no definitive confirmation available in the open. Readers and Twitter followers will know that i think the British Army is wasting way too much money on BOXERs for ambulance and command posts roles, while mounting a ridiculously small number of infantry battalions in the new vehicle and missing firepower and key variants such as a recovery vehicle. I'd rather use cheaper vehicle bases in Support roles and reserve BOXER for the fighting roles at the front. This is, by the way, what happens in Germany, where FUCHS is used, or Italy where ORSO and LINCE cover all of the ambulance requirements and the vast majority of mobile command post needs. 


There is a very bitter irony in the fact that Brigadier Martin’s power point slide when he talked about lethality showed a german PUMA IFV firing a SPIKE anti-tank missile. AJAX does not possess that capability, obviously, so...


MIV programme personnel from the British Army at a Kongsberg event in Norway last April, getting a demonstration of the RS6 RWS, a step up from the RS4, which can employ the M230LF 30x113 mm cannon and JAVELIN 



In other words: even the one bit of the concept that was pretty unquestionably wise still does not have, to this day, a clear path to becoming an operational reality. It has been widely suggested that, now that BOXER is de facto replacing WARRIOR, a firepower boost will have to come, somehow, but there's still, even to this day, no evidence of a firm plan being in place. 

And beyond the viability of this bizarre brigade construct in itself, we should never fail to consider the impact that the sudden STRIKE brigade obsession had on the wider Army.

 Army 2020 (the 2011 plan centered on 3 armoured infantry brigades) was a plan mainly concerned with sustaining enough brigades to maintain a “1 in 5” cycle for enduring deployments (6 months deployed, 24 to rest, regenerate, train), and inevitably so since operation HERRICK was still Defence’s main effort. Even so, Army 2020 very much had “contingency” (state on state warfare, that is) in mind. Its heavy core of 3 capable armoured brigades was meant to preserve the Army’s warfighting know how. Army 2020 planning guidelines did include a Divisional "best effort", with 3 brigades, 2 of which armoured and 1 of which would be made up by elements of 16 Air Assault brigade and 3 Cdo brigade.

In other words, Army 2020 was meant to protect the Army’s ability to field a force pretty much equivalent to that generated for Operation TELIC in 2003, but from a smaller overall army. Accordingly, it was acknowledged that a Divisional deployment would only be possible with adequate warning and preparations, because supports were insufficient.

When in 2015 Army was given direction to accelerate regeneration of a warfighting, deployable Division because focus by then was squarely back on being able to provide NATO with a sizeable land component, a rational mind would have sought to improve the readiness of the existing armoured brigades while rebuilding as many of the missing supports as possible.  

It was, without a doubt, doable.

But the Army instead decided that the overwhelming priority to be funded was procurement of BOXER, not just to replace MASTIFF in the single mechanized infantry battalion that had been part of each Armd Inf Bde of Army 2020, but to build a whole new kind of fighting formation.

Under 2015’s “Army 2020 Refine”, the Division would have again been composed of 2 armoured brigades, with the 3rd one being a STRIKE brigade, leaving 16AA, 3Cdo and a light brigade from 1st Division for Rear Area security on top.

In practice, a force much heavier than had been generated for the invasion of Iraq in 2003, coming out of a smaller army. An army that didn’t really enjoy any growth from Army 2020 plans.

Army 2020 Refine and STRIKE were the ultimate "do more with less" madness, calling for a super demanding force generation cycle and the ability to deploy 100% of the armoured brigades in the ORBAT. And it was supposed to solve the difficulties that Army 2020 had in deploying 2 armd bdes from 3.  

It was, in other words, a fairy tale that Land HQ at Andover told itself.

By 2019 it was painfully evident that the Defence budget was again running hot and that the Army was in particularly dire straits ahead of the incoming Integrated Review, but in December BOXER was ordered, reconfirming it as Andover’s number 1 priority.

From that point onwards, the Army’s ability to fund upgrades to CHALLENGER 2 and WARRIOR, and in general its chances of hanging on to its current sizes and programs were, to put it mildly, tied to the chances of rolling nothing but sixes at every throw of the dice.

Thankfully, the Army rolled several sixes. Boris Johnson’s government put many billion pounds of investment into Defence and Land HQ got most of the increase and the largest allocation over the 10 years. Those were 2 sixes rolled. Getting the CHALLENGER 3 programme funded was another.

WARRIOR ended up not rolling its six, and in general the Army’s mess at that point was so big that the money was never going to be enough for everything.

The STRIKE brigades as once imagined have disappeared, and the Army is getting smaller, with Future Soldier leaving it dramatically short of actually deployable and meaningful brigades.

In all of this, what Ukraine probably proves once again is that replacing MASTIFF with MIV was never what was urgent. Fires, air defence, MBTs themselves and even the IFVs are decisive. Shape of the wheeled APC is secondary. Ukrainian mechanized infantry is making do with an unlikely dog’s breakfast of platforms, including, funnily enough, MASTIFF itself.

In the end, Future Soldier itself admits that the picking of priorities was disastrous. It finally puts the money into CR2 upgrades, artillery and air defence (hoping that plans continue to progress).

Warrior did end up being the sacrificial lamb and BOXER is now de facto THE vehicle the British Army’s future depends upon, but that was unavoidable after the December 2019 contract and the building of two assembly lines in the UK.

The only ray of true hope at the moment is (apart from the promises of a further defence budget boost) the coming of a Chief General Staff who has pretty clearly said that there is much to fix, and that he is prepared to change Future Soldier structures to (hopefully) deliver real combined arms formations and not pure lip service.

I’ve seen hints that the so called Operation MOBILISE might result in a first refinement of Army plans to be announced by the end of the year. I’m wishing it the best of luck, and I’m hoping rationality has returned to Andover, because it’s badly needed.

Sunday, May 8, 2022

Everyone is recce, everyone is strike: an organisation for a small but tough British Army

 

As I’ve made hopefully clear on Twitter in several different occasions, I am convinced the Integrated Review was very good. The Defence Command Paper had a lot of good things about it too, although it is clear that some things would need more funding to truly get moving according to stated ambitions.

Future Soldier is the one document that is not just disappointing but flat out concerning. It is to be hoped that a “Refine” will come swiftly, because the plan feels like it was written by "2 guys" wanting fundamentally different things. Brigade Combat Teams and combined arms integration at lower levels on one side; preservation of increasingly artificial barriers and tribalism between Corps and Regiments and specialties on the other. The end result is an awkward compromise that fails to deliver “conventional”, solid brigades and equally fails in progressing new ways of operating.

The Army is “lucky” in that the events in Ukraine represent a perfect chance to save face and justify the changes without admitting that the problems were all there from the get go. 

 

Future Soldier fails to articulate a new concept for how to structure, field and employ force in the field.

The Army’s “Conceptual Force 2035”, which up to at least 2017 was looked at very seriously, imagined an army completely reconfigured to deliver 3 smaller but capable divisions made of lighter, faster, more deployable, largely independent battlegroups, with dispersion being the norm. Conceptual Force 2035 specified that the disaggregated fighting requires Combined Arms capabilities to be organic at lower level, to ensure the dispersed Battlegroups do not have to wait for a superior echelon to make supports available. This includes having more organic Indirect Fire capability and employing it alongside greater ATGW capability to offset the capability currently delivered by MBTs through “lighter” vehicles.

 

Apparently, Conceptual Force 2035 has since lost traction, and that actually saddens me, because at this point the army is in such miserable shape that it was arguably the one model it could follow to try and regain some effectiveness. On the other hand, 2035 was always way too close in time for many of the things imagined to actually happen. Robotic and Autonomous Systems, for example, are nowhere near as mature as needed for the full vision to take shape, and without pervasive use of ground combat uncrewed vehicles it’s easy to imagine that the main difficulties experienced in the simulations will have been infantry shortages and resupply problems.

 

Whatever vision takes shape next is anyway unlikely to stray too far away from Conceptual Force 2035 ideas, because rebuilding a large “conventional” force would require manpower and money that simply isn’t going to be there. While I am not expecting new IFVs to come into service anytime soon, the Fires "ingredients" that would be indispensable for CF35-like combat groups are in the plan, and there are promising signals that the number of BOXERs will continue to grow.

Ultimately, the Integrated Operating Concept 2025 has set out the following list of attributes for the future force:

  

Have smaller and faster capabilities to avoid detection

Trade reduced physical protection for increased mobility

Rely more heavily on low-observable and stealth technologies

Depend increasingly on electronic warfare and passive deception measures to gain and maintain information advantage

Include a mix of crewed, uncrewed and autonomous platforms

Be integrated into ever more sophisticated networks of systems through a combat cloud that makes best use of data

Have an open systems architecture that enables the rapid incorporation of new capability

Be markedly less dependent on fossil fuels

Employ non-line-of-sight fires to exploit the advantages we gain from information advantage

Emphasize the non-lethal disabling of enemy capabilities, thereby increasing the range of political and strategic options

 

Unless these attributes are quite drastically revised, the new concepts will necessarily have a lot in common with CF2035. I think the army need to accept this, because “mass” will never be there.

What we see in Ukraine is that not even the Russians are achieving the kind of mass needed to create a “traditional” continuous front. The British Army, with far less troops and material, won’t be able to create a front either, unless it’s ridiculously narrow.

Dispersion these days is unavoidable, not only to reduce vulnerability against enemy Fires, but also simply to cover ground.  

 


STRIKE was way too optimistic in imagining huge tactical advantages to be secured by a force which was going to have no particular mobility advantage on comparable formations and certainly no firepower advantage whatsoever. It imagined an enemy paralyzed by dispersed STRIKE elements advancing on multiple directions simultaneously, completely failing to appreciate that dispersed elements can very easily and quickly become isolated and very difficult to resupply. For years, STRIKE literally assumed that there would be no need for it to conduct bridging operations in the direct fire zone, which was one of the wildest, most absurd assumptions ever.

 

Ultimately, too much about STRIKE was just not credible, but dispersion is something we will have to deal with, by necessity if not by choice.

The challenge is defining a workable British Army organization that maximizes the survivability, lethality and usefulness of its small force.

Some starting assumptions:

 

-          Long range Fires are arguably the only way to “close the gaps” between dispersed force elements and ensure that small deployed contingents have disproportionate effect.

 

-          The ability of Fires to truly “close the gaps” depends on their responsiveness and on the ability to provide targeting from a multitude of sources all across the manoeuvre force.

 

-          For the foreseeable future at least, the tank remains a fundamental  capability. Its survivability, combined with the high number of “stored kills” can hardly be replaced by volleys of missiles. It is reasonable to assume that in the future tanks might shed weight as piling up passive protection simply becomes counter-productive and we might see Robotic / Autonomous vehicles taking up more of the MBT role, but until technology matures we have to make good use of what is available and works.

 

-          Air defence must be much more widely distributed, otherwise all sorts of threats will have an easy time targeting troops in the field.

 

-          Recce by stealth is increasingly unlikely to be feasible. Land manoeuvre can be observed by a multitude of drones, space, air and ground based sensors, and the widespread availability of all sorts of communication systems make it pretty much impossible to imagine small armoured vehicles sneaking unobserved on the enemy.

 

That recce by stealth is no longer feasible is something the British Army, just like other armies worldwide, has de facto accepted quite some time ago. Recently, the Royal Dragoon Guards have provided some welcome clarity on how the Cavalry regiments are attempting to confront the combination of the AJAX disaster, the CRV(T) imminent retirement and further manpower reductions. The latter has the inexorable consequence of leading from a 4 Sabre Squadrons structure down to 3.

 

SCIMITAR is going to be replaced by WARRIOR, which has already seen some use with the cavalry since at least 2018 as an AJAX surrogate. But of course, since there are nowhere near enough working WARRIORs, they are concentrated in just ONE Sabre squadron, albeit enlarged to 5 Troops. Interestingly, WARRIOR cavalry will, in field, mix with CHALLENGER, with the RDG forging a close relationship with the Queen’s Royal Hussars.

This is the only logical consequence of accepting recce by stealth is (mostly) dead, and follows examples from other parts of the world. Notably, the US Army has re-introduced a company of M1 tanks into its cavalry squadrons, and also grouped the Styker MGS and ATGW into the reconnaissance squadron of the Stryker BCTs, until it decided to remove the MGS from service.

In Italy, to give another example, CENTAURO/CENTAURO 2 support FRECCIA in the Cavalry regiments doing reconnaissance for the brigades.

In truth, there’s no need to wander the world at all: the UK’s original FRES SV plan notoriously included a true medium armour variant with 120 mm smoothbore cannon, which would have accompanied the SCOUT.

There really is nothing new in all of this: it is just another sad and self-destructive circle that the British Army has walked.

It really is sobering that, after 30 years and billions of expenditure, the Army’s future is a team of CHALLENGER and WARRIOR. When one looks back at WARRIOR demonstrators for the recce cavalry role, and at high-tech experiments such as VERDI, and thinks about all that followed, it’s impossible not to get emotional.  

 

The Guided Weapons/Javelin Troop is enlarged into Sabre Sqn mounted in "variety of armoured vehicles", which presumably means anything from JACKAL to Mastiff to have some mobility. The Squadron will de facto fight dismounted and in close liaison with the infantry (in the case of the RDG, specifically alongside 5 RIFLES), employing JAVELIN, NLAW and LASM / ASM.

There has been no increased allocation of JAVELIN. Of course, one bitterly adds.

 

The final Sabre Squadron groups the Sniper troop, Surveillance Tp, Assault (pioneer) Tp and C2 Tp. This seems to build upon work Household Cavalry’s B Squadron has been doing for the last several years, ahead of what was supposed to be the first conversion in the Army from CRV(T) to AJAX, and the assumption of their role within STRIKE.

Adding snipers is, apparently, a major revolution that took a long time. In 2020 B Sqn HCR formed an Anti-Tank Troop and had worked for a while to “try” and form a Mortar Troop as well. Sadly, this seems to have been way too ambitious a revolution, and there is no sign of mortars in the new cavalry structure.

 

In general, the new Cavalry organisation is all about forming combined arms groups in the field, but without adopting it in the barracks. And once again I ask: why? Why can’t the British Army make that final step and try to give itself a structure which is more in line to how it actually expects to fight?

The main reason not to do it, the logistic complication of having regiments home-based far from each other, is gone, with the heavy forces all centered upon Bulford, Tidworth and Warminster.

 

Structures must change because the current ones are simply not fit for purpose and they unnecessarily complicate future planning, training and operations by maintaining artificial separations in roles and capabilities.

 

 

An organisation for dispersed, heavy hitting forces

The Reconnaissance Strike Group imagined and championed by retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor remains, in my opinion, the most promising force structure to face the current challenges of land warfare.




It is, obviously, presented at “American scale”, so with numbers that the British Army could never match, but  conceptually it is a valid framework that is centered on manoevre forces capable of dispersed, mobile, operations across a wide area in presence of capable enemy forces. It is meant to survive and fight in the modern battle space where ISR and EW are pervasive and Fires are a constant threat.

 

-          This new battle space demands self-contained independent battle groups; formations that operate on land the way the Navy’s ships operate at sea: within the range of their organic ISR and STRIKE capabilities.

 

-          RSG suppresses or destroys enemy air defense and missile assets-RSG is effective when immediate responsiveness is required, in complex terrain or in poor visibility.

 

There is no separation between Manoeuvre and Reconnaissance forces in the RSG. The entire force is about recce and manoeuvre. It uses 4 battalion battlegroups to jointly Find, Target and Manoeuvre, and has a Fires battalion at its core.

As the expectation is to operate dispersed, the RSG is deliberately conceptualized as a sort of mobile fortress in which the battalions surround and protect the Fires element, feeding it targets to destroy.

 


The Integrated Operating Concept 2025 guidance, the Conceptual Force 2035 assumptions and the equipment programmes underway are all very attuned to an RSG-inspired force structure for the main combat formations.

The new USMC Littoral Regiment has its own lesson to give, in how it produces a self-contained manoeuvre formation with its own “Anti-Air Battalion” (which is actually a more multi-role unit than the name suggests, delivering also air control and Forward Arming and Refueling Points for the supporting aviation element) and Sustainment Battalion.

 

The RSG as imagined for american use is a huge formation which contains a number of armoured vehicles an UK formation wouldn't possibly match, just like the US Armored Cavalry Regiment of the 1990s was comparable to an entire british Division, but the concepts are what matter

Imagine the British Brigade Combat Team as a formation of 4 Combined Arms Regiments arranged around a Fires formation. Each Regiment would have a Manoeuvre Battalion with Infantry mounted in BOXERs and, in the “Heavy” variant, cavalry squadrons with CHALLENGER 3.

One of the roles of the Manoeuvre battalion would be to Find targets and direct Fires. The current Tactical Group Batteries of the Royal Artillery, and indeed Surveillance and Target Acquisition sensors, including SERPENS counter-battery radars and the new portable battlefield surveillance radar, would be pushed directly into these units.

 

AJAX is really a thorn. Obviously, if it survives and enters service it will have to be used, both alongside Challenger in mixed Recce-Strike Squadrons within the manoeuvre battalion (heavy) and without tank in (medium) configuration. But in truth, if I could have one wish granted, it would be to make AJAX vanish and get back the money to fund the upgrade of more CHALLENGERs and the procurement of more and better armed BOXERs.

A possible template for the Cavalry squadron could come from the old US Armored Cavalry Regiment, in which troops combined Scout platoons on BRADLEY with tank Troops with M1. Each Troop had 8+1 ABRAMS and 12+1 BRADLEY, and this could be a possible mix to practice with WARRIOR and then with AJAX if it really comes.

 

Alongside the Manoeuvre formation there would a Combat Support Battalion delivering Pioneer and engineer capabilities as well as organic Fires. The kind of reach imagined by Conceptual Force 2035 could easily be achieved by adopting 120 mm mortars carried in BOXERs, and BRIMSTONE-based MountedClose Combat Overwatch (MCCO).

There would also need to be a SHORAD troop, initially equipped of course with STARSTREAK/LMM, on STORMER self-propelled launchers wherever possible.

 

There would then be a Sustainment Battalion combining REME and Logistic elements.

 

The Fires Battalion at the center of the Brigade would ideally revert to the mixed format of Artillery regiments in Army 2020, so with a GMLRS Battery in addition to the AS90 (and then Mobile Fires Platforms) batteries. This would give the BCT the ability to strike out to at least 150 km with GMLRS ER. The Precision Strike Missile would ideally be held at Division level in another GMLRS regiment, able to strike out to well over 500 km, with strategic relevance that will increase in the coming years as spiral development of the missile delivers a seeker for striking mobile targets, from Air Defence units to warships at sea, to ranges of 700 km and beyond.

To hopefully reduce costs, the Division’s GMLRS regiment would use a truck base, with the M270 launchers given to the Brigades. In the US, work has started on a Palletized Field Artillery System which is a 2-pod GMLRS launcher that can be used stand-alone or carried on a EPLS-type truck, or even on the deck of a ship. Germany hopes to soon add a truck-based, GMLRS compatible, 2-pod launcher, so there are options for the UK to procure more rocket launchers, with wheeled mobility and beyond, without going anywhere near HIMARS that comes with a single pod due to C-130 volume and weight constraint considerations.

 

The proposed "early entry" vanguard element of a RSG is arguably not that far away, Robotic and Autonomous Systems aside, from what the Conceptual Force 2035's Future Combat Team aspired to be.

At brigade level would also sit an Air Defence battery with SKY SABRE, with CAMM ER missiles planned to be available from 2026.

 

A Division of 4 BCTs in this “Heavy” configuration would be a good start. Hopefully a second Division could then follow, in a “medium” configuration without the CR3s.


At Division level, remaining Light forces, either air mobile or mounted in vehicles (if you expect to operate dispersed and over a wide area, moving on foot just won't give you the tempo you need) would be chiefly tasked with ensuring supplies to get to the BCTs across theatre. Ensuring the safety of the supply flow is going to be an absolutely key task, and Ukraine only goes to prove this. 

The "operational reserve" that Future Soldier is supposed to create should have this as its primary mission: each Division should have a Reserve brigade which, while undoubtedly light for lack of enough vehicles and heavy gear, will have to possess credible protected mobility to literally plug holes in the flexible, shapeless front and ensure supplies get through. 


The Vanguard Light Brigade in Army 2020 Refine, and arguably the whole of what remained of 1st Division, had a rear area security role in a major operation, in which they would operate to secure the rear of 3rd Division. This requirement is also recognized by the new WAYPOINT 2028 organisation of the US Army, most evidently in the presence of the Force Protection brigade in the Penetration Division. 

The British Army will have to ensure this key role is adequately covered. Expanding the fighting role of the Royal Military Police, in a way similar to what the US Army does with its own MPs is possibly part of the answer. The Reserve should be part of the Answer, too.  


Forget about even trying to procure a new tracked IFV, focusing instead on BOXER coming with the appropriate variants and firepower, so for example the already mentioned 120 mm mortar.

In early May, Rheinmetall published a periodical accounting report outlining potential deals that must legally be communicated, and it notably includes a 3rd Lot BOXER order for the UK, numbering c 400 vehicles. If this does indeed happen, it would push the UK purchase above the 1,000 threshold (523 in the 1st Lot ordered in late 2019; 2nd Lot of 100 added in April), and there’s a lot of good things that can be done with a thousand high end vehicles if you are laser-focused on maximizing combat capability.



My recommendation is always the same: Ambulance and Command Post and other supporting roles mostly do not need, or do not really benefit from being on a precious BOXER base. That is exactly what Multi Role Vehicle Protected should exist for. That’s how France, using Griffon alongside VBCI, and Italy using ORSO alongside FRECCIA, are maximizing the combat output of their 8x8 fleets.

 

The Patria 6x6 is being adopted by Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Sweden as Common Armoured Vehicle System. It is an example of a good, cheap candidate to be the perfect supporting vehicle to BOXER in a multitude of roles. 

Ideally, I repeat, I would also forget about AJAX, if there really is the chance to claw back the money, and the Treasury is willing to let the MOD invest in advance. There is no overstating how helpful it would be to get more than 5 billion pounds to invest on programmes that are actually in step with the Army’s conditions.