Showing posts with label Agile Warrior. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Agile Warrior. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Merry Christmas... and dig in, because a tough year is coming.


Just a quick line to wish all my readers a merry Christmas and a happy new year. My best wishes to all of you.


Now, because i'm a bastard at heart, i will share some of my depression with those who want to read further.

It will be an important and tough year for defence, this one is for sure. There are two events on the horizon that will be of absolute relevance and that will have the potential to slam the death blow on defence, already agonizing after the cuts of 2010 and 2011. These two events are the referendum for the Independence of Scotland and, obviously, the SDSR 2015.
An independent Scotland, make no mistake, would be a gigantic pain in the ass for defence, which would be faced with new, enormous and very expensive challenges, right at a time when the budget is tighter than ever. The SNP's fantasy plans for defence in an independent Scotland are as credible as unicorns gallopping over rainbows. What would be very real in case of a separation would be the cuts, the losses, the dismemberment of the Army and the further emasculation of the other two services.

The road to the next SDSR promises to be painful, as well. The MOD has been underspending since the SDSR, but much of the underspend, instead of being moved into later years to support the needs of defence, has been clawed back by the Treasury with cuts in the Autumn Statements of 2012 and 2013, and in the 2013 budget. The suspect, for a cynic like me, is that the MOD is underspending as a mean to cut even further without having to admit it plainly.

A part of the underspend has been spent on things such as additional Litening III pods (how many?) and the tiny successive orders of Foxhound vehicles that we have seen in the last while. Hammond said that some money will be used to start CROWSNEST next year instead of in 2017, and we shall see if the promise is kept. I very much hope so, because this would at least cut short the AEW gap.
But still, the last two Autumn Statements both raided away hundreds of millions of pounds each. The Autumn Statement 2012 clawed away £245 million in 2013-14 and £490 million in 2014-15.
The Autumn Statement 2013 added another 277 million cut for 2014-15 and announced a 272 million cut for 2015-16.

 

Multiple voices agree that even the Future Force 2020 structure, already depressingly incapable in several areas, is not going to be affordable unless there's an increase in the defence budget, over and above the promised 1% uplift in the sole Equipment Budget. These voices include RUSI in its overview of the coming year and the Chief of Defence Staff himself, who launched his warning in the traditional, annual lecture.

Depression rules supreme within the force, along with cynism. Scratching beneath the surface, it emerges that things are even worse than they look from the outside. Even relatively inexpensive projects are often unfunded and some did not even make it into the White Board of the "unfunded but with a hope come 2015" projects. Apparently, among these projects, there's the Force Protection Craft for the Royal Marines. This follows the killing, already in 2011, of the Fast Landing Craft project (it'll be 2020 at least before the Marines can try again at replacing the LCU MK10), and earlier still (2008) the killing of the replacement for the venerable BV-206 vehicles.

From the outside, the picture for the Royal Marines is unpleasant to say the least: all their main projects appear to have been killed; one Bay LSD has been sold off; one LPD is in mothball and HMS Ocean is to be withdrawn from service in 2019 without a replacement. 
848 NAS will disband at the end of the year, having concluded the last training course for Sea King HC4 crews on December 19. 846 NAS has been disbanded already in March, leaving the sole 845 with just 11 Sea Kings. 846 NAS will reform on Merlin HC3/3A in September 2014, with 845 NAS following in August 2015.
It is not expected to reform 848 NAS: 845 will instead include an Operational Conversion Flight. The whole force will include 37 crews and 25 helicopters, unless there are further reductions.This is a reduction from 43 crews and a force which once lined over 30 helicopters.
Actually adapting the Merlin for shipboard operations will be a slow affair. The first navalised Merlin is not expected before 2017, and the last won't be around before 2022. For several years, the amphibious force will be extraordinarily poor in dedicate helicopter support.

The fate of 24 Commando Engineer Regiment is somewhat uncertain. The Royal Marines and Navy HQ are locked in a fight against the Army for its survival, trying to reverse the plan for its disbandment. Stood up in 2008 to respond to a chronic shortage of engineer capability in the amphibious brigade, 24 Cdo Eng hasn't even had the time to stand up the planned second field squadron (56 Sqn) before being sacrificed by the Army to the reductions required by Army 2020.
The assignment of 131 Cdo Eng (Reserve) Squadron to a command within the Army, other than to the Cdo Enr Regiment itself is also source of many questions and doubts. 
The Army also wanted to axe 148 (Meiktila) Bty Royal Artillery, but this was thankfully avoided. 29 Cdo Royal Artillery, however has suffered its own reductions, and is down to just 12 Light Guns. Hopefully, it'll at least maintain its batteries.

Lastly, P Squadron, 43 Cdo, a force protection squadron made up by RN personnel, stood up in 2010 to provide "Blue" teams for the force protection of navy and RFA ships at sea, is also disbanding, and this role will fall on the shoulders of the line commando battalions. 40, 42 and 45 Commando are, as a consequence, being asked to generate, more or less constantly, 1.7 units at readiness out of 3, Jane's estimates. A new record.

Next year the Royal Marines will be 350 years old. They have much to be proud off, and much to celebrate. But behind the curtain, the picture is unpleasant. Since 2010, years of effort to build up the most complete and credible amphibious capability in Europe have been squandered and crumbled by reductions in shipping, in supports, in vehicles and landing craft projects. Having recently re-read "3 Commando Brigade in the Falklands No PicNic", by Major General Julian Thompson RM, it is very much alarming to see how the last three years have brought back the Marines on the same dangerous edge of destruction they faced in the early 80s.
The brigade today would have much the same problems it had in 1982, which means, to my cynic mind, that 31 years have been largely wasted and no lesson has actually been learned firmly enough to avoid falling back into the same old pits. The brigade was desperately short of helicopters back then, and would have even less today: 847 NAS is going to have just four Wildcat helicopters, and the Sea King HC4s (which was new in 1982, and is very old today) are far less than back then.
Save for the introduction of Viking and some other kit, the brigade has less of everything: less light guns, less helicopters. The loss of HMS Ocean and the incoherent, messy plans for embarked fixed wing aviation would put the brigade back in the same position as in 1982: no air superiority, no adequate air reconnaissance, little in the ways of air support, and no appropriate helicopter support ship for amphibious operations.

The Royal Navy is probably not without its faults. Thompson in his book remembers how the Navy already in 1970, pressed by cuts and budget problems, tried to halve the number of Commandos from the then 4 down to 2. Ironically, back then it was the Army's opposition that prevented that from happening.
In 1980, the Navy tried again, because faced by the cost of the submarine-borne nuclear deterrent (see the similarities? There's the Successor SSBN on the horizon...) and by a very limited and precise sets of roles assigned in the Cold War scenarios by a MOD 100% focused on Germany and convinced that out of area operations would never happen again. Instead of directly proposing the disbandment of Commando units, the Navy focused then on axing the amphibious shipping (again, see the similarities...). Thompson was told so in December 1981 by First Sea Lord Henry Leach. Not without sadness, of course, but that was the direction the Navy was inclined to follow to preserve other parts of its "body". Argentina's hurried, foolish move came a few months early: had they let the winter pass, and acted later, the carriers and amphibious ships would have all vanished, victims of cuts, and the islands today would be named Malvinas.


The Royal Marines of today are precious to the Navy. Their involvment in Afghanistan has made the whole navy proud and has kept the admirals at the table. For not the first time, the contribution of the commandos has been much greater than their numbers suggest.
Moreover, the flexibility of the RN Response Force Task Group has been proven multiple times since the SDSR came out, with the quick response to events in Libya and, to a lesser degree, to Sirya, and then this year to the Philippines natural disaster.
The Navy HQ is, this time, on their side, i believe. The involvment of Navy HQ in the fight to save 148 Meiktila and 24 Cdo Eng is telling, in this sense.
However, the Army, faced with its own painful cuts, is rowing against them. The parts have inverted, but the Royal Marines still sit in the middle, in an uncomfortable position. Let 2014 be a year of celebration, but never let down the guard! The Royal Navy, stretched far too thin in manpower and budget terms, is accepting tough reductions in amphibious shipping capability despite its support for the Marines, and the Army will be trying to redirect cuts away from itself as well. I fear this is a defining moment: may the 350th birthday not be the last of the Royal Marines as we know them.

The problem, basically, comes down to an alarming lack of strategic cohrence. The rushed and completely financial nature of the SDSR 2010 certainly has a good part of the fault, but the way the decisions made drift completely away from the slogans and strategic narrative is too evident and too disturbing to be excused only on those grounds.
The other half of the High Readiness reaction element, the Air Assault brigade, is in a messy situation of its own. Cut down to just two para battalions (plus reserve battalion) and with supports similarly scaled down, the brigade is no longer effective as a brigade and appears just as hard pressed as the Commandos in sustaining the generation of a battalion-strong task force every year. Binary brigades have been proven ineffective again and again and again. The US Army has just reversed its own try: the Brigade Combat Teams, save for those mounted on Strykers, have two manoeuvre battalions but are now to be enlarged to three, with corresponding uplift in artillery and engineer capability.

In practice, the strategic narrative and the reality of the brigade's capabilities are on diverging paths: having assigned to these two formations key and very demanding roles, with a very tight force generation cycle, the Army has then swiftly moved to weaken both brigades, making them at once busier than ever and weaker than ever, in CS and CSS elements in particular. The battalions in the two High Readiness brigades will constantly rotate in and out of very high readiness, putting the men, the kit and the organisation under severe strain. 
Rushed SDSR or not, i simply can't understand how this is even possible, frankly. It screams wrong in your face from whatever angle you look at it.

Army 2020 strategic narrative, shaped by the Agile Warrior trials and exercises and by doctrinal studies, says that the future will require more littoral manoeuvre capability and more riverine capability. Decisions made: scrap the RLC's landing crafts without replacement, move wide wet gap crossing entirely into the Reserve, reduce amphibious shipping, scrap the Force Protection Craft project which would have given the armed forces an excellent riverine capability, in conformity to the lessons learned in Iraq using LCPV MK5s up rivers.
Again, say one thing, do exactly the opposite.

The aircraft carriers, which should be the cornerstone of the defence strategy which is, in the words, shaped around "small but powerful expeditionary forces", remain bogged down in uncertainty and alarming trial-and-error. It all seems to slowly move ahead, entirely shaped by funding considerations, without a clear cut role and case made for them, when the impending loss of HMS Ocean without a dedicate replacement and the need for air power at sea make the case perfectly clear.

In the air force, the Sentinel R1 hasn't yet a certain future despite proving itself again and again. The Shadow R1 will stay, and it is widely anticipated that the Reaper will eventually be brought into core budget, although there's no certainty yet. The Rivet Joint force will slowly build up to achieve FOC in 2017, while the purchase of a 9th C-17 aircraft is a persistent rumour which for now fails to become a solid reality.
The fast jet combat fleet, in the meanwhile, falls down to alarmingly low numbers. The Tornado GR4 is on its path to retirement: 12(B) Squadron disbands on March 31, 2014, followed the day after by 617 Squadron.
31 March 2015 will see II(AC) Squadron disbanding as well, to reform the day after in Lossiemouth, on Typhoon. In the same month, XV(R) Squadron, the Tornado GR4 OCU, will move from Lossiemouth to Marham, along with the Tornado Engineering Flight. Lossiemouth will bid its final farewell to Tornado GR4, which will only survive for a few more years in Marham, with a mere 2 squadrons. The OCU itself, at some point, will disband and go down to a mere Operational Conversion Flight as the Tornado force approaches its end.
And this is before the SDSR 2015: the pessimist expect the OSD for Tornado to be moved even closer than the currently planned 2019.
Even if the 2019 OSD stands, the RAF will be down to as few as 6 frontline fast jet squadrons by then, hopefully growing back to seven when the second F-35B squadron stands up. That's a tiny airforce, which compares badly to others in the same theorical league: see France, or even Italy.

The hope to see the Typhoon tranche 1 retained and used for something in the long term is all but dead, making the Typhoon program a fearsome waste of money, with 160 expensive aircraft purchased to never employ, effectively, more than around 100 in just five squadrons. A waste of colossal proportions.
Only two squadrons are planned for the F-35B force, and the second (809 NAS) will probably only stand up in the early 2020s. In 2020 the RAF is likely to have only 6 frontline squadrons, five on Typhoon and one on F-35B.
And this is before anything new and nasty happens.

According to Lochkeed Martin, as of October 2013, the F-35B plan for the UK sees 617 Sqn moving to Marham in 2018 with 9 aircraft to work up to Land-based IOC and to begin carrier trials. Five more will be based in the US for training, in the US Marines base Beaufort. 3 more aircraft will be with XVII Sqn, the OEU, on the Edwards AFB.
Of these 18 airplanes, only 4 have been delivered/are on order so far, but the MOD is said to be approving the plan for the purchase of some 14 more. If they are to be delivered by 2018, however, the time is very tight, as roughly two years pass from order to delivery. With just one lone F-35B in LRIP 7 and 4 anticipated in the LRIP 8, we are a long way away from the target. Either the MOD revises these orders upwards, or there will not be 18 aircraft in 2018. Even if there are, the UK, only Level 1 partner in the JSF program, will actually have less airplanes than most other partecipants. Not entirely bad, since the later aircraft will of course be more technically mature and also hopefully less expensive, but this is due to a reduction to just 48 planned purchases, and this is no good.
In any case, this is nonetheless telling of what downsizing the british armed forces actually are going through.

9 aircraft in the UK, 3 in Edwards and 5 in Beaufort. That's all.

The SDSR 2015 is also supposed to fill the bleeding gap in Maritime Aircraft Patrol capability, starting a new programme, but keeping in mind how many other problems there are at hand, it is quite hard to be upbeat.
One little, tiny ray of hope comes from the CBRN real, where the demented decision to withdraw the Fuchs is apparently being reversed, with 8 such vehicles, modernized, being assigned to FALCON Squadron, Royal Tank Regiment, to form a Wide Area CBRN recce and surveillance asset which will be part of the division-level supports (probably will come under Force Troops HQ). FALCON Sqn will be based in Harman Lines in Warminster. FALCON squadron will be a sixth sub-unit, independent from the main role of the regiment as Type 56 tank formation. There isn't yet an official confirmation i can quote, but it seems to be a done deal. In 1982, the Royal Navy saw stupid decisions reversed by the strategic shock of the argentine invasion. In 2011, Libya exposed the stupidity of losing capabilities such as Nimrod (both the maritime patrol and ELINT/SIGINT variants) and the aircraft carriers. But the shock wasn't big enough, and the UK got away with it, sending a few Apaches on HMS Ocean (just five in the moment of greatest effort!) and adding a little bit of extra life on Type 22 frigates and Nimrod R1.
In 2013, the Army was given back its CBRN capability following another strategic shock, the use of gas in Syria.

Royal Tank Regiment post-merger will have: 



Armd Sqn (AJAX): SHQ (2 x CR2); 4 x Armd Tps (each of 4 x CR2).
Armd Sqn (BADGER).
Armd Sqn (CYCLOPS).
Comd & Recce Sqn (DREADNAUGHT). 2 x CR2; and 8 x CVR(T) SCIMITAR.

HQ Sqn (EGYPT).

  



The question is: what happens when, finally, a big strategic shock comes too late, instead of just in time to cause a hasty reversion of the worst mistakes?
Soon or later, it is bound to happen.

In conclusion, the Armed Forces are far from being healthy. They are, in many ways, exhausted and squeezed to death by immense pressure coming from all sides. In the way ahead, the SDSR 2015 marks a no-return point. And the Scottish issue, coming before that, can represent another such crisis point. Don't believe what SNP says: it would be foolish to expect anything other than sweat and tears in the armed forces if Independence happens.



Merry Christmas, and good luck for the new year, proud warriors. It seems good luck will be very much needed. May some kind of wisdom spirit descend in the minds of those who will write the fate of the armed forces in the coming year.



Gabriele
 


Saturday, May 4, 2013

My alternative proposal for Army 2020

I promised quite some time ago now that i would try and take a shot at a coherent, realistic, alternative Army 2020 plan, which would not move away from the 82.000 regulars and 30.000 phase 2-trained reservists numbers. No fantasy fleet, in other words, but a serious, disciplined attempt, because of course it remains an exercise of theory, to put together an alternative structure.


My planning has been done building on a number of firm points:

Army 2020 is not just about manpower. It is about training and basing infrastructure as well. If i suggest a whole different army structure, like the original plan for five multirole brigades each comprising heavy armor, i must plan for fewer battalions, because i'll need to move money out from the personnel budget to spend it on infrastructure to prepare other bases around the country for the arrival of heavy armor. New training areas will be needed, and this will imply big expenditure.

I'm sticking to the basing plan released by the MOD as much as possible. I think the basing of the army brigades and units is one of very few things that have been done with real wisdom in these three years. Mind you, there are still challenges, but it is a very good basing layout overall.
Moreover, it reprensent a financially realistic plan. I could suggest different choices, but i could not realistically cost them and say that they would be achievable with the same budget.

I'm not going back to the multi-role brigades because they imply some real challenge in terms of training areas and infrastructure. It is a wise thing, overall, to have the "peacetime" brigades divided by role and by geographic considerations. Salisbury Plain is the right place for the heavy armour. Complementary capabilities, lighter in nature, will come from other brigades.



The above points explain what i'm not changing. But there are other considerations that have made me take several choices different from the ones made by general Carter's team.

The UK's first line of defence is represented by the two high readiness brigades: 3rd Commando and 16 Air Assault. These two brigades are planned to sustain a very challenging rhythm, generating, constantly, battlegroups to keep at very high readiness: the 1800-strong Commando Lead Battlegroup and the 1300-strong Air Assault Lead Battlegroup. This is an Army 2020 / SDSR firm point, which has been, in my opinion, badly betrayed by the choices made in terms of force structure.

I'm fine with the removal of 1st RIFLES battalion from the Commando brigade, but i'm absolutely opposing the reduction of the brigade's engineer capability to the sole 59 Independent Squadron plus Reserve Squadron. It is an insufficient level of engineering support to enable the brigade to deploy whole without being reinforced by other elements scraped up from some other formation, and, worse, it is too little to ensure that the constant formation of serious battlegroups at high readiness can be formed.

A battlegroup should comprise one Commando battalion, one artillery battery, one Commando Logistic Task Group comprising the medical capability and surgical group, C4I capability from 30 Commando IX and one squadron of Engineers.
All elements can be sustained, in general, save for the Engineer component: how can a single squadron, even with a reserve capability available, sustain a constant state of high readiness? It just won't be able to do it.
And the Commando battlegroup will end up weak on combat engineer support, despite the Agile Army studies saying that combat engineering will be high in demand in future ops.

My first move is to keep 24 Commando Engineer Regiment, with HQ Sqn and three regular squadrons. 59 Independent Sqn currently holds most of the capabilities of an HQ Sqn, being alone in the role, so the manpower impact mostly comes from the need for two more field squadrons.

16 Air Assault brigade, has no combat engineer problem, but has its own issues too. First of all, the reduction to just two regular battalions plus 4 PARA (Reserve). Again, this just doesn't do the job in my opinion.
In my army structure, i resurrect an old plan, dating back several years, and assign the british-based Gurkha battalion to 16AA Brigade. The battlegroup at High Readiness will have to be a mixed battalion, formed by two Aviation Companies, good for helicopter assaults and for running out of a C130 following a tactical landing, plus a parachute-current company, capable to airdrop if and when necessary. The Gurkha battalion will be tasked to provide Aviation Companies, obviously. No parachute training, there's no money (and arguably no need for additional capability other than the enduring ability to airdrop a single Company group at any one time).

The Gurkha battalion is chosen because it is based in an acceptable position, and because it is not a formation that has problems recruiting and staying fully manned. 
This change is roughly manpower neutral.

I'm also proposing the formation of a new unit for the air assault brigade: an HQ Troops / Information Exploitation battalion on the model of 30 Commando IX.
This formation would be built up using the RMP element, the brigade HQ, 216 Signal Sqn and Pathfinder Platoon, and it would continue to draw from other army formations for additional capabilities: an air defence troop with Starstreak LML taken out of 12 Royal Artillery, EW teams from 14 Royal Signal regiment and so along.
The manpower increase would come from the re-formation of the 1st Airborne Reconnaissance and Surveillance Squadron (which would build on the history of the WWII airborne reconnaissance sqn), which would include in its strenght the current Pathfinder platoon but would add a standing Brigade Recce Force dedicated to the particular needs of 16 AA Brigade. The Squadron would have Jackals as main vehicle.

Note that there is a possibility that this move would actually be manpower neutral: so far, the Household Cavalry regiment has had an additional squadron in its establishment in order to provide recce support to 16AA. It is not clear if this will continue, under the current planning.

These changes are meant to better and more realistically enable the High Readiness brigades to cover the roles they have been given.



Flexibility must be real, not a catchword. The current Army 2020 plan abuses, in my opinion, of virtual "centralisation" of support units under specialised brigade HQs. I think this arrangement adds no flexibility at all, especially when we consider that the regiments are configured very differently depending on wheter they are Reaction Force-oriented or Adaptable-oriented.
The basing plan has also made good, rational efforts to base regiments in the best possible locations depending on their configuration.
Why have the three Reaction Force's artillery regiments in Larkhill, near the manoeuvre brigades they are meant to support, only to subordinate them to an "Artillery Brigade" based in Tidworth which is also supposed to control regiments located as far away as Newcastle?
It just makes no sense to me. It adds nothing good to the army's capabilities. It possibly hinders them, in fact.
I can't think of another major NATO power even considering the same idea. Not the US, not France, not Germany, not Italy.

My opinion is that intimate combat support elements must remain an integral part of the manoeuvre brigade, especially when the basing plan makes it possible.
So:

1) Disband 1st Artillery Brigade, re-subordinate artillery regiments to the relevant brigades.
2) Move Close Support Engineer regiments out of 8 Engineer Brigade back to the brigades.
3) Move Medical regiments back to the brigades' control.
4) Directly assign to the brigades their Close Support REME battalions.

The same could perhaps done to Logistic (RLC) regiments as well, but in their case it might make more sense to have them in two Logistic Brigades, assigned each to one of the two main deployable brigades.
The Logistic Brigades will include the Force Support REME battalions as well.

The Adaptable Force as currently envisaged in my opinion kind of forgets one of the main points of Carter's own assumptions: an Army is for warfighting, first and foremost. The structure of the Adaptable Brigades as of now is unnecessarily complicated and confused. There are, in the plan, three "main" Adaptable Brigades, but in the facts they are paper tigers, weakened by having their establishments hindered by the need to sustain Cyprus and Woolwish (Public Role) deployments.
Since it is possible to make sure that these brigades are properly configured at all times, with 3 manoeuvre battalions in force, i can't see why we shouldn't do that.

These three "main" brigades will be, as now, the Cottersmore-centered 7th, the Catterick-centered 4th and the Edinburgh-centered 51st.
Some Infantry battalions will need to be subordinated differently from what is now planned. The three mechanised battalions for the Reaction Force will now be the ones based in Aldershot. The change basically means removing from the role 4 SCOTS, which is based as far away as Catterick.
4 SCOTS will now be part of 4th Brigade instead, alongside with 2nd LANCS, which currently would respond to 42nd Brigade.
7th Brigade will assume command of the Guards battalion posted to Pirbright, while the battalion rotating into Public Role at Woolwich will fall, for the duration of its posting there, under the command of the Guards brigade.

In this way, it is possible to keep the strenght of the manoeuvre brigades up, even as battalions rotate in and out of Cyprus and Public Duty.

In an additional effort to make these brigades genuinely deployable, i'm giving them the combat support elements as well. The current Army 2020 plan includes two regular engineer and artillery regiments for the Adaptable brigades, because it privileged the achievement of the minimum number of five enabler formation per each role, so to support the capability for enduring brigade-sized deployments in the future.

I'd like to go a little bit further, and give all three brigades an artillery and engineer capability, so that the three main Adaptable Brigades can do their own 36-month readiness cycle complete of their enablers and thus ready to tackle deployments abroad in operations of some complexity. To do so, i'd backtrack from the plan to disband 40 Regiment Royal Artillery and 28 Regiment Royal Engineer, and use integration of regulars and reserves to keep these two formations at full strenght with minimal change to regular manpower figures.
From the current plan, which calls for 2 regular and 2 reserve Light Gun artillery regiments, i'd move to a plan with three mixed regiments, each with two regular and two reserve batteries.

My assumption (and the Army's one as well, it would appear) is that, to "equal" a regular sub-unit availability with a reserve sub-unit, you need to have two reserve sub-units. This is due both to manpower and training worries regarding the reserves, both to the fact that reservists can only deploy for a 6-month tour once in a 5 years period, while the regulars would do two tours in the same timeframe.
Having two reserve sub-units is meant to make it realistic to expect that the regiment could deploy with a mixed regular/reserve manpower delivering a full three batteries / squadrons /companies without exceding harmony guidelines.

Guidelines for the employment of Reserves

In the engineer field, it would appear that the plan already is for two integrated regiments, with 2 regular and 2 reserve squadrons each.
I would add a third regiment equally configured, at the expense of one of 3 currently planned Force Support engineer regiments (Reserve).
For the regulars, this means one additional RHQ and two additional engineer squadrons. 

Two regular medical regiments are already planned. A third regiment could be provided via an adequately reinforced reserve regiment.

The REME situation is the same: 2 close support regular regiments can be completed by a reserve REME battalion, taken away from a currently planned 4 Force Support battalions for the Adaptable Force.

On the Logistics front, there are two regular Force Logistic regiments planned for the Adaptable Force. The Force Logistic regiment is described as a hybrid unit comprising Supply and Transport/Fuel capability.
While the Reaction Force brigades, logistically heavier, are each supported by a Close Support Logistic and a Thetre Logistic regiments, the lighter Adaptable Brigade are supported by a single hybrid formation.
The equivalent of a third Force Logistic regiment is already planned, under the shape of two Transport and two Supply regiments of reservists.

The above changes are roughly manpower neutral: the number of squadrons and batteries remains the same. The number of Regimental HQs reduces.
However, the barracks in Ripon, which are now home to an engineer regiment but are currently planned to close as the regiment moves to Catterick, in my plan would remain. The third reg/res engineer regiment would be housed in Ripon, in fact.

To balance the changes in manpower and basing that i've described, my alternative Army 2020 reduces the infantry by a further battalion. Difficult choice to make, but the only one possible in my opinion. My proposal would imply the disbandment of 2nd MERCIAN and the closure of barracks in Chester, instead of Ripon.


Agile Warrior studies have concluded that future deployments should see the brigade HQ helped by a Division HQ. The brigade staff must be able to focus on the tactical aspects of the operation, while the 2-star HQ covers the strategy and the theatre-wide issues including theatre logistics. Despite this, Army 2020 proposes a rather confused future of the Divions of the british army.

My plan would see the downgrading of the LONDON DISTRICT, a two-star post not really necessary, in exchange for a more readily deployable capability within 1st UK Division HQ. The division would command the three "main" Adaptable Brigades.

The currently planned 2-star HQ UK Support Command would also revert to being a more traditional Division HQ, not immediately deployable but nonetheless more outward looking.
This Division would command the remaining Adaptable Brigades plus the Guards brigade (result of the downgrading of LONDIST).

The Guards brigade, non-deployable, would act as a container for the units based in the London area for their public duty period. Nonetheless, the Falklands Roulement Companies will come out of the battalions of this brigade. For what i understand, this already happens, but not all the time. In future, i'd want it to be the rule, because the army is stretched and can't afford to lose so many resources to ceremonial roles.

Then there would be three Reserve brigades directly paired to the three "main" Adaptable Brigades.
11 Brigade, the South HQ, would be paired to 7th Brigade. 11th Brigade, for geographic reasons, would also control the reserve elements supporting the Reaction Force, namely the 100 RA regiment, which i propose as possible new GMLRS reserve formation (since the regular GMLRS are moving south, from Newcastle to the Salisbury Plain area) and the Royal Wessex Yeomanry which will continue to provide reinforcement/replacement crews for Challenger 2 MBT formations.
42 Brigade, the HQ North West, would be paired to 4th Brigade.
52 Brigade, which would be re-established, would be paired to 51st Brigade.
These brigades, as much as possible, mirror the regular formation they support and integrate, so there is a TA infantry battalion for each regular one, and a TA Cavalry regiment for each Regular one.

The shifting and re-subordination of squadrons from the Royal Mercian and Lancastrian Yeomanry regiment to reform a Scottish Yeomanry regimen is apparently already on the cards.  

Lastly, there would be two mixed regular/reserve brigades, 38th and 160th, which would be the first choice for upstream defence engagement abroad.

The Force Troops element would be much the same as currently planned. Since Agile Warrior has confirmed the absolute, capital importance of Maneouvre, it is absolutely fundamental to preserve a number of specialised capabilities that make maneouvre possible. I'm speaking of the TALISMAN route clearance capability, and of the M3 rigs for rapid river crossing. These two capabilities would be preserved each into a Squadron of the Land Support regiment, 36 Engineer.


Summary of changes:

Regular 2-star HQs: -1 (LONDIST)
Regular 1-star HQs: -1 (Artillery Brigade)
Reserve brigade HQs: +2 (52 Bde, Guards Bde)

Regular regimental HQs: +3 (24 Commando Engineer, 28 Engineer, 40 Royal Artillery) NOTE: 24 Commando RHQ virtually manpower neutral change, due to HQ capabilities otherwise being part of the Independent Commando Sqn
Reserve regimental HQs: -3 (2 Light Gun artillery regiments, one Force Support Engineer regiment)

Regular Artillery Batteries: +1 TacGroup Bty (number of gun batteries unchanged, but spread over three regiments each with 2 gun batteries instead of 2 regiments of three batteries)
Reserve Artillery Batteries: Same (spread over three regiments instead of grouped up in two)

Regular Close Support Engineer Squadrons: +4 (?) (it depends on wheter the two currently planned Adaptable engineer regiments have 2 or three squadrons each, not yet clear) (2 Commando Engineer squadrons, 2 Adaptable Sqns)
Reserve Close Support Engineer Squadrons: +2
Reserve Force Support Engineer Squadrons: -2

Reserve Force Support REME battalions: -1
Hybrid Regular/Reserve Close Support REME battalion: +1

Regular Infantry Battalions: -1 (2nd Mercian)
Reserve Infantry Battalions: Same

Base closures: Ripon to stay, Chester to close


I believe my Army 2020 proposal delivers an army which is both more flexible and more realistically aligned to the Defence Planning Assumptions set by the SDSR. In addition, it makes efforts to try and adhere to the findings of the Agile Warrior studies.

In a way, my proposal returns to a concept of business that the Army has already experienced in the past, when three Armored and three Mechanised Brigades were meant to have their own 36 months cycle of force generation.
At any one time, in this way, one Armoured Infantry (Reaction Force) and one Light/Mechanised (Adaptable Force) brigades would be trained and ready for operations. The Adaptable brigade could be deployed on simpler interventions, or provide elements to be combined with regiments coming from the Reaction force to form a Multi Role Brigade with the correct mix of capabilities.

How it used to be

One problem, highlighted by Agile Warrior but harder to fix without a proper budget, is the fact that the British Army remains filled with Light Infantry, and is arguably the less mechanised army within the major forces in Europe. There is a very evident gap between Warrior and Foxhound, which FRES UV, currently planned for just 3 infantry battalions, is not going to close.
To improve the situation in this field, a complete rethink of FRES UV is in order, i think. One option would be to take a step back from the expensive, top class 8x8 AFV, and re-assess the possible "good enough" solutions. France is planning to buy hundreds (a thousand, possibly) of 6x6 VBMR vehicles for its medium weight, multirole brigades. Their requirements for the new vehicle are rather ambitious, and include excellent protection for a section of up to 9 soldiers, at a cost as little as 1 million euro per vehicle. My suggestion is to follow this interesting procurement effort with attention: it might be advantageous to go along with the french for once, with the hope to Mechanise at least a further three battalions, one for each "main" adaptable brigade.
It would be a step in the right direction, compliant with the Agile Warrior recommendation to re-mechanise the army.




Monday, July 16, 2012

Informing, or justifying Army 2020…?


The results of the 2012 edition of “Agile Warrior”, the future-informing series of exercises and studies that the Army is using for shaping its future structure and capabilities have been released via RUSI during the Lad Warfare conference in June. Agile Warrior 2012 is said to have significantly informed the Army 2020 restructuring.

Agile Warrior has been hailed as an “innovative” and open thinking exercise of thought, open to the general public scrutiny (at least in part), constituting an example of how the forces should try and see into the future to re-shape (read reduce) themselves.

Is there anything really that innovative or good about Agile Warrior? I’m far from convinced.

For example, until Agile Warrior 2011, the exercises had been centered on developing the Multi Role Brigade on which the Army has been working at least since 2008, when the hope was to have 8 such brigades. In 2010, this had reduced to 5 as we know, but the MRB concept was still the way, and Agile Warrior 2011, albeit showing some reserve on some factors, significantly hailed the MRB as the way to go.
Then, as we know, Army 2020 took a sharp turn to the side and broke away from the MRB concept altogether, and apparently moved away also from much of the sound concept of unit standardization and modularity that had been worked upon. As far as I’m aware, there has not been an Agile Warrior assessment of this complete change of direction. It just happened, and Agile Warrior 2012 is considerably less expansive of AW11, and just avoids expanding on any kind of brigade or force structure.
This, in my opinion, already undermines the credibility of the whole thing. Is AW actually influencing something in a meaningful way, or are the decisions made and then “justified” with a suitably general and vague document published later? It very much feels like it is the second option.

But let’s see what the major thinking exercise of the Army has brought forwards this year, also building on the experiences of Urban Warrior 3, the third major urban warfare simulation conducted:


• Recognise that it is more likely than not that the Army will be required to fight in a city within the next 10-15 years.

• Prepare and employ combined arms brigades, with expeditionary and mobile headquarters for manoeuvring to seize the tactical initiative.

• Invest in the divisional level, where operational art should be practiced using a comprehensive approach.

• Re-mechanise. Beyond 2020, ensure that the equipment programme includes a capable main battle tank, an armoured reconnaissance vehicle, an armoured artillery piece and armoured vehicles for armoured and
mechanised infantry; with command and support vehicles to match, in order to ensure the necessary levels of firepower, protection and mobility.

• Move from assured to confident targeting, based on judgements, the law and accountability, rather than mechanistic processes.

• Invest in specific preparations for operating in urban areas: inter alia, intelligence awareness of the terrain; a method for simplifying the common operating picture; communication that works in built up areas; psychological inoculation of personnel; and tactical training for fighting in buildings and underground.

• Re-invest in logistics, medical and equipment support pushed forward and integrated with the fighting echelon.

• Ensure that aviation can operate effectively in urban areas.



Perhaps I’m cynic, but I can’t see any innovative thinking or any great discovery here, while I continue to be amazed by just how vague and generalist these documents can be.
“Invest in the Divisional Level” can mean pretty much anything, but the hard fact is that we are getting a single Divisional HQ of which the Army has not yet decided the structure, plus another (presumably) deployable following augmentation, and another HQ with divisional rank for internal operations in the UK and daily management. Investing in the Divisional Level is certainly desirable, but what this “investment” is about, who knows. Obviously the Army won’t tell everything to the general public, but the sensation is that there aren’t many hopes of seeing anything particularly revolutionary. Ideally, the Division level should be able to provide a deployed brigade the theatre-level logistics, a strategic direction, “big picture” intelligence, and it should also provide a number of enablers such as, for example, an Air Assault Battlegroup (this is what happens in Afghanistan, where the Regional Battlegroup South is kept separated from Task Force Helmand and employed as an air assault formation for maneuver and for rapid reinforcement when necessary, with one Company held at 6 hours readiness to move, and the rest at 12 hours notice) and air support (via collaboration with the RAF) plus other elements as and when necessary.

A new structure for Brigade HQs with a renewed Mobile element is also highlighted as necessary, fortunately.

The re-machanization concept is overall sound and in line of principle we can all agree with it, I think. It is important to note that command and support vehicles adequate to support the new armour and mechanized force are highlighted (will we hear of a Mortar Carrier replacement for the ancient FV430 vehicles in this role, finally? This is a requirement that FRES SV seems to have forgotten entirely, this far…), and we will see if this assessment brings to any actual action in the future.

Re-investing in logistics, medical and equipment support pushed forwards, closer to the fighting echelon is also a concept to be welcomed, but what will we actually see done about this?
For example I can think of confirming the Royal Signals Infantry Support Team project as a long term element of the force, and not as an Afghan-timed measure. These less than 180 men organized in 5-man teams at battalion level have a hugely beneficial impact on the combat effectiveness of the formation, and this is amplified by the fact that this small team prepares up to 50 soldiers within the battalion for the role of Tactical Signallers, competent in the use of HF, VHF and Satcom radios and also trained as Combat Medics.
The stable integration of such a combat medic / Tac Sign at least at Platoon level is absolutely desirable, and more than worth the investment.

Strenghtening the Electronic Warfare and Electronic Counter Measure (Force Protection) capability to make it more available at Company or evel Platoon level is also very desirable. This might be done, as it seems that 14 (EW) Regiment is continuing to expand (even if Army 2020 strangely decided to cut a squadron from it, barely weeks after the additional squadron mandated few months earlier stood up…) and 10 Regiment, which contains the Army’s ECM(FP) Squadron is now described as an ECM regiment. A way to announce an expansion in this capability? I hope so.

Up to Agile Warrior 2011, the new Logistics element of the Army was described as having organic escort and force protection fighting element. This is not mentioned openly in AW12: should we be worried? We will perhaps know in the next months, as future unit ORBATs are revealed.
The Army also has a long-running requirement for a Platoon (or lower level) load carrier, ideally a drone, and we’ll keep an eye on this as well, to see if it brings to something or just vanishes. At Company level, vehicles such as Coyote and Husky are part of the Logistic picture, but we’ll have to see if these are brought into core when Afghanistan is over. At Battalion level, MAN SV trucks and Wolfhound vehicles are meant to deliver the logistic element. Again, Wolfhound’s future in the long term is far from certain.
The Multi-Role Vehicle (Protected) should replace Land Rovers, Pinzgauers, Panther and possibly Husky and other UOR platforms in this logistic and support role, but even in the best-case scenario, the MRV(P) is years away, so there is a lot of questions and not a whole lot of answers here.
Also, will the UK infantry company gain a CASEVAC section with a battlefield ambulance as part of the “move forward” of the support elements, like it happens in other nations, such as the US? 
It is too early to know the intended future ORBATs of the battalions, but the Army has determined that the Full Unit Establishment for the main type of infantry battalions will be as follows: 

Armoured Infantry (on Warrior vehicles, 6 battalions): 729 
Mechanized Infantry (on Mastiff, then on FRES UV, 3 battalions): 709 
Light Protected Mobility (on Foxhound, 6 battalions): 581 
Light Role Infantry (14 battalions): 561 

Again, the US Army has been observing the USMC in Afghanistan using the K-Max unmanned helicopter to sling heavy loads and carry them to remote FOBs without putting people in danger and without requiring convoys moving on IED-ridden paths. They are now planning for adding load-carrying helicopter drones to their logistic elements in future: this is innovation at play. I see no sign of it in the british army document.
Is lack of funding constraining even ambitions and free thinking? Being unable to finance it now should not mean not even considering it.

Ensure that aviation can better work in urban areas roughly means “acquiring and fitting improved electronic countermeasures”, one of those rare but welcome priorities that are actually being addressed. However, the hard question in this area is what can be done to protect low flying helicopters in the urban maze from the threats against which Chaff, Flares and even direct laser/IR missile blinding rays won’t do a thing: small arms fire and unguided RPGs fired in volleys. These latter two menaces have caused most of the helicopter losses in Iraq and Afghanistan, but the obsession seem to be always about portable SAMs. Other than a few efforts, mainly in the US and Israel, to develop small-arms fire locating warning devices, and an Israeli effort for developing an hard-kill anti-RPG countermeasure, there does not seem to be much of a solution in the works. The British Army should probably consider acting in this particular area, at the very least by following US and Israeli efforts, instead of focusing only on SAMs, ignoring even the operational experience. 

NOTE: just this afternoon, the MOD announced a 20+ million pounds order to Thales for developing and demonstrating a major 360° Infra Red situational awareness system for helicopters and aircrafts which will be capable to locate not just missile launches, but rockets and small arms fire. A step forwards in the right direction. This will ease evasive maneuvers. Hopefully, countermeasures will follow. 


Another important passage of the report is about the use of fire support, namely artillery, in future and specifically in urban warfare scenarios.

Offensive Support. The utility of indirect fires in urban operations was confirmed. Conventional fires to defeat or neutralise the enemy remain highly relevant although the balance between yield, precision and suppression demand a range of capabilities to be available. Non-explosive natures were also seen to have utility, e.g. marker and smoke. Further study is recommended to investigate how novel munitions could enable operations in the urban environment where avoiding collateral damage is a major factor.

Very generic.
Indirect Fire programs have been chopped savagely in the years, and the efforts of the Royal Artillery to modernize have been frustrated. I can think of many questions that could be made:

-          You were shown 81 mm mortar shells converted in precision guided bombs with a change of fuze. It seems the kind of technology that helps a lot in urban scenario: is it going somewhere?
-          Maneuver against enemies other than guerrilla fighters are openly expected, and we are keeping armored brigades indeed to face said threats. But the Royal Artillery no longer has an anti-tank shell, after the old bomblet carrier was retired and its replacement, the SMART 155 (a 155 mm shell containing two precision guided Anti Tank submunitions) was cancelled. Where are we going with this? Last time that thousands of bomblet shells were used was in Iraq in 2003, not a century ago.
-          MLRS was the anti-area, anti-mass weapon for excellence until 2007, when even the guided variant of the submunitions rocket was retired, just 2 years or so after being acquired. The unitary warhead GMLRS is very good for hitting point targets with great accuracy, but what about enemy maneuvering forces? The US are developing a new, Alternative warhead for area attack which removes the problem of unexploded ordnance common with submunitions: will the UK look into it?
-          The AS90 is ready already since 2010 for adoption of the GPS guided Excalibur shell. Course-Correction fuzes capable to turn current long-fuze ammo into 20 meters-CEP precious rounds are also available. Yet the RA is being forced to wait at least until 2018?
-          The focus on maneuver, including long-range, deep penetration air assault operations, is likely to require artillery with longer reach to keep the forces in the vanguard under the umbrella of heavy supporting fire. The Large, Long Range Rocket requirement (ATACMS) has been de-scoped, but this does not seem wise. Extended range ammunition and longer-range GMLRS (range of well over 100 km already demonstrated) will be re-considered? They were part of the Indirect Fire Precision Attack family of modernization efforts, but one by one they have been systematically killed.
-          What about Fire Shadow? Combining UAV and precision missile with low-collateral damage capability, it could be extremely useful in any scenario, urban one included, especially when, from October this year if times are respected, the full-motion video downlink via Strike Hawk device will be validated, allowing troops on the ground to see Fire Shadow imagery on ROVER portable displays.


Some “innovative thinking” in replying to hard questions such as these would be a more convincing exercise.   

But the area of the report that more than all others told me that Agile Warrior cannot and will not generate much of anything is the part about Command, Control and Information (C2I) needs. I find this part of the report as depressing as it can get and denotes a total lack of reaction to even obvious needs. What Agile Warrior tells me, is that the money available for investment on C2 and communications is tight or non-existent, and the Army is trying to say that it does not need certain improvements. This is not innovation: this is telling people that things are going fine while the ship is sinking. This is flattening the Army’s voice on what government says, even hiding the reality of the operational needs in order to say that, really, what we have is fine and beautiful.
This is a criminal way of acting. It is obvious that financial resources are a factor in what can and what cannot be done, but the process should be: Identify Needs and Challenges Ć  Develop a Strategy Ć  Identify priorities and fit into the finances available. Instead, the process seems to have turned into: This Is What You Get Ć  Tell Everyone That It Is Fine.
But let’s see what the problem is, reading what the document says:


The exponential growth in information technology has revolutionized operations. The demand for complex, rich information services in the current and future operating environments has outstripped delivery. Information and Communications Services (ICS), and their applications and data, need to be made available, securely, to a very large number of dispersed users and if necessary within a contested environment. These users will need access to information services through ‘points of presence’, interconnected by high bandwidth links, and will need to be able to reach across the deployed force, to allies and coalition partners, to the home base and to others in the country of deployment. While reversionary working needs developing and practice, there is, essentially, no going back. C2 elements, large and small need access to a ‘flat’, ubiquitous ICS network to allow them to achieve an operational advantage; all within the context of cyberspace - with its associated opportunities and threats.

Military communications specialist, supported by DE&S and contractors, will need to operate a common equipment platform, carrying common NATO services and applications, using a single Service Management regime. The scaling of Dii(S) and Dii(R) to deliver medium scale enduring operations, requires review. There is also a lack of an agile (smaller/lighter) solution. It will be essential that the ICS regiments use common infrastructure, networks and service management, and that there is a common set of user applications.
Without this common platform, the multi-role approach will be difficult to implement.

Delivering rich information services into the fast moving manoeuvre elements of a force is challenging and services at this level will be optimised for voice, situational awareness and battle planning and control, with some tailored access to richer services; fixed or static HQs, with relative stable power supplies, can expect the full range of ICS to be provided; BGs and Coys will rely on Tactical CIS. As there is a direct correlation between the quality and timeliness of information and decision making, manoeuvre force elements will need to readjust to making decisions with less information and thus reduced understanding, which will have a concomitant impact on the level of assurance, risk and tempo of operations.


In other words, the Army needs information on the move, and needs it down to lower echelons than Brigade level, but delivering information is “challenging”, and  the “innovative” solution the Army comes up with is asking the forces on the field to make do with the reduced, frammentary situational awareness they have got.
For a document that plans for the future, this is inacceptable. This should be a temporary (and indeed an as-short-as-possible) gap in capability, not an element reported in a document for the future of the Army. It is like being back in 1940, when German tanks had radios and French ones had not.

Before Agile Warrior 2012 came out, for a lucky case of destiny, I had chosen to make an article about FALCON, the new communication system entering service with the Army in these months, introducing this crucial problem into the discussion. It was very much the right inspiration, it seems. In the article, I also included an Australian Army assessment of the communications situation, which painted a picture definitely depressing for the British Army, which offers sorely insufficient comms support to lower echelons and has ridiculously low capability for sharing information on the move.
It was also noted in the article how, with contractors’ help, FALCON in Afghanistan has been adapted to exploit commercial technology to deliver information at 100 Mbps, against the limit of 32 Mbps the system is built with.
Now, in what I can only consider as a lie, Agile Warrior tells us that “Estimated broadband WAN bandwidth
requirements range from 10 Mbps at the smallest C2 nodes up to 32 Mbps at the larger nodes.” This is not a requirement honestly assessed, it is, casually, what is available with FALCON.

The only tiny bit of honesty comes with the headline:

Their is [error maintained from original document] an emerging imbalance between the demand for rich ICS and the ability for supply to keep pace.

The suspect is that the British Army is expecting not to be able to invest into the next element of FALCON, the “Future FALCON”, for several more years at best. So long, indeed, that they are hushing even their needs down, as they don’t know whether they’ll ever be able to solve the problem. This is very, very serious.
The lack of an effective Information and Communication system, deployable, ubiquitous, reaching all echelons and available on the move is the biggest blow to the Army’s efficiency.
This conflicts dramatically with the reality of operations and with all realistic expectations for the future, which will see the need for communications and data exchange grow, not shrink. Even instruments such as UAVs, from Watchkeeper to Scavenger, will deliver far less effect than they could and should, if the final users on the ground are unable to receive the data and imagery and full motion videos the UAVs collect. Ever since the dawn of war, information has been the key to victory, more than almost anything else.
It is crucial that investment in ICS materializes. 

A FALCON WASP node deployed. Save for the mast deployed directly from the truck, the rest has to be assembled all times the node deploys. On the move, the node does not contribute to the network, and has very limited situational awareness via a Bowman tactical radio.
FALCON, as it works now, is roughly comparable to the US Army’s WIN-T (Warfighted InformationNetwork – Tactical) increment 1: it delivers a communication network using IP (Internet Protocol) infrastructure, with VoIP (Voice Over the Internet Protocol) capability, optimized for use in command posts down to battalion level, and with Networking-On-The-Halt capability: the command post arrives in the intended location, deploys, resets its systems and connects into the network.
On the move, communications services reduce to Bowman radios, which only ensure voice and basic data capability. When the command post transfers, most of its capability is lost until it deploys again. The FALCON network nodes themselves work only on the halt: on the move, they cease to be working elements in the network. 

On the move, FALCON stays silent.
The British Army seems set to be stuck at this point for undetermined time into the future, but the other allies in NATO are moving on from this limitations. Technology to overcome the problem is available. The US Army should start fielding in October the WIN-T increment 2, which introduces “On the Move (OTM)” capability all the way down to Company level. Crucial to this is the adoption of powerful Software-Defined Radios, capable to automatically switch channel (VHF, UHF, HF, satellite or military VoIP channel): with the SDR, the old separations in roles and capability vanish. If until now an operator had to be trained in the use of this or that channel and then issued with, say, a VHF radio that could talk only to other VHF radios, today an operator can talk to everyone, as the radios adapt automatically to the needs of the moment.
In addition, a radio which is moving on a vehicle, which is talking to another radio and loses the Line-Of-Sight contact, automatically switches, for example, to SATCOM to keep the communication going on.  
Testing is well underway, and by the end of next year, 8 BCTs might already be equipped with the system. 

The consequences of this improvement are immense, and far-reaching. The need for traditional headquarters which deploy and expand under canvas is reduced dramatically, as the commander can stay fully updated on the battle situation inside its vehicle on the move, be it a M1 Abrams, a Bradley or another.
Behind this capability, is the NetOps software, which dynamically assigns shares of bandwidth over the network to this or that unit, ensuring that no one can saturate the lines.
The physical infrastructure of the network inside a BCT is made up by 4 different kind of nodes:

TCN (Tactical Communications Node)
POP (Point of Presence)
SNE (Soldier Network Extension)
VWP (Vehicular Wireless Package)

The TCN node is the main hub of the system, and works as Satellite and Line of Sight node, with On The Move capability. In the US Army, the TCN is installed on FMTV (Family Medium  Tactical Vehicle) trucks. This is roughly comparable to the WASP node of FALCON, which is mounted on HX60 trucks. The FALCON node, however, has no OTM capability, as we said.  

US Army's TCN node, deployed along with other WIN-T elements, including a satellite dish. FALCON in the British Army will often work near a REACHER satellite node.


The echelon immediately lower inside the Network is supported by the POP network: the POP systems are installed on the tactical vehicles used by commanders and their staff, down to Battalion level.
Both TCN and POP use Highband Networking Radios (HNRs) for Line Of Sight communications, employing pulse directional antennas for directing a narrow signal (harder to intercept) over a greater distance. For Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) communications, TCN and POP use satellite communication systems with antennas capable to electronically scan the signal and keep locked on to the satellite while the vehicle moves.

The capability to work On The Move being introduced in the WIN-T system is the start of a new era in military communications.


The SNE is the expansion of the Network down to the fighting Echelon at Company level. Installed on combat vehicles, the SNE node has a small satellite antenna and a VoIP modem that can reconfigure automatically to interface with all portable radios used by the soldiers, keeping the network working on the move, regardless of terrain and dispersion, by communicating with the main radio of a Platoon, which acts as node of connection to the personal radio of each soldier in the team. The US Army has selected as “Rifleman Radio” the AN/PRC-154 produced by a Thales/General Dynamics joint venture, of which a first lot of over 6000 was ordered in June 2011. The Rifleman Radio has been sent in Afghanistan for in-theatre experimentation with the 75° Ranger regiment last January, and reportedly met the favor of the soldiers for its low weight, its capability of talking regardless of obstacles in the way (crucial in rough terrain and, even more, in urban scenarios) and its 10 hours battery duration.

Finally, the VWP is a Local Area Network extension node, which keeps the command posts on the move linked in the LAN with the TCN nodes.

An US MRAP vehicle fitted with SNE node during trials of the WIN-T increment 2

Finally, the WIN-T Increment 3 to come in the near future will expand the network to aerial platforms, by fitting the Gray Eagle MQ-1C drone with a 150 lbs Highband Networking Waveform pod. This will act as a communications relay node working in Line of Sight (LOS) by dialoging with the vehicle-based nodes below, reducing the need for satellite use, a crucial factor since satellite bandwidth is, of course, finite. It is expected that 3 pods will be issued to each Gray Eagle company, so perhaps a single pod will go to each of the 3 platoons, each with 4 drones. The Americans have put a Gray Eagle company into each Combat Aviation Brigade, which is a divisional asset. Brigades have their own UAV element with the smaller, 6-hours endurance Shadow drone. For the British Army, the sole Watchkeeper works at brigade/division level.   
In Afghanistan, the US has been regularly using manned airplanes working as communication relay nodes as well. The installation of such pods on other high-flying, long endurance platforms is also envisioned and experimented. 
[NOTE: the above is a quick and simplified overview of what is a very ample and complex system of systems. A complete view of all components and structures of the WIN-T network is in this document, but don't be surprised if you don't quite get it all, it's quite complex!]

The British MOD itself tested a communications relay pod on the Qinetiq Zephyr solar-powered drone, holder of the world record for endurance in flight for a UAV (some 14 days at 21.500 meters of altitude), even if lately it has apparently vanished from the radars. The Zephyr aims (aimed?) to deliver a lightweight drone capable to stay over the battlefield for months, making it a good, low-cost alternative to satellites.
The Watchkeeper drone should also have some margin for additional payload (weapons are an option being studied, and the Hermes 450 from which it derives can be fitted with two fuel tanks for 50 liters each under the wings), so a comms-relay payload might be a possible fit for the future.
Again, British company ALLISOPP HELIKITE offers a variety of small kite-balloons (the smallest is only 3 feet long) that can be used to launch at altitude a radio antenna offering immediate, long range relay of signals.
The options are there to exploit, in other words.

The Future FALCON, which is meant to deliver communications support to the maneuver forces, including those on the move, is absolutely crucial for the Army’s future capability, I repeat once more, and I find it abysmal that Agile Warrior is not used to assess, measure and explain the full range of needs of the deployed forces on the field. Lack of money is not in itself a justification for even refusing to honestly face reality and find solutions. If the Army’s “innovative thinking” is just a way to hide the dust under the carpet, then they should save the money and effort of going on with these annual exercises and “studies”.


Moving on, to ISTAR.

Robust ISTAR structures at each level of command are essential to meet future contingent needs. Whilst forming a bespoke IX/ISTAR Group on operations (as seen on Op HERRICK) may be an option it should not necessarily be the default setting (1). What is needed is better alignment of collection assets and the process of collection management, with that of Information Requirements Management in order to better support a commander’s decision making with an analysed output (Intelligence). The key to success is the effective grouping of special-to-arm I, S, TA, R force elements in barracks, holding them at the appropriate readiness and force generating them at the right stage of the supported HQs Collective Training; CT5 and CT6 events must include the full suite of ISTAR capabilities.

Specialist support must be scalable and adaptable to the HQ structure; start small (lean) and get bigger as required. Following the ‘plug and socket’ philosophy, which is a key tenet of the A2020 proposition (2), there is a need for a combination of better educated generalists with appropriate training and experience to be core staff members in Battlegroup, Brigade and Divisional HQs, responsible for integrating ISTAR; and specialists (EW, UAS, HUMINT, GMR etc) that are task-organised when required to bring professional/SME advice and input to both collection (FIND) and exploitation.  

[…]

Each deployed brigade should have its own organic ground mounted recce, Intelligence, Communication, Geo and Battlespace Management elements. The division may require the development of a bespoke deployable reconnaissance / surveillance organization that manoeuvres to find but in direct support of
divisional information requirements.

A One-Star proponent (Capability Director Information) will reinforce the professionalisation of ISTAR as a discipline and bring coherence to its delivery. (3)

Consideration should be given to introducing a tactical intelligence career stream for infantry and armoured
Regiments.
  

(1)    This appears to be a direct contradiction of what the Army said in Agile Warrior 2011, where an Information Exchange/Exploitation group was assessed as needed at each brigade level, somewhat mirroring 3rd Commando Brigade with its 30 Commando IX group.
(2)    It would be nice to see some explanation given about this philosophy, which is mentioned only in passing, in such a casual way. Who follows my blog and has followed with me the Army 2020 sage knows that the new force structure suggests that deploying brigades will “pick” “this” artillery battery/regiment, “that” Theatre ICS Signals Regiment and “that” one Logistic element from the “container” brigades of the Force Troops command, but no official explanation of this has been released yet, nor do we know how this choice was made.
(3)    Possibly this will be the brigade HQ of the newborn Surveillance and Intelligence brigade, of which we still ignore the composition, even though I’ve long been saying that I expect it to reunite Royal Artillery UAV regiments and Military Intelligence battalions, plus perhaps even the STA regiment of the artillery.  


Another crucially important area is the retention of Afghanistan UORs to bring into the Core Budget.
About this, AW12 says:

Fires, Targeting and ISTAR.
• Retain the significant enhancement in collect capability
• Retain and nurture the significant enhancement in staff dissemination and processing skills.
Lethality.
• Review of training progression and the use of simulation.
• Maintain the competence levels among reserves and support forces across the wide spectrum of new weapon systems that they have used.
Counter-IED.
• Future training will need to balance between scenarios constrained by an IED environment with training for operations that demand speed of manoeuvre.
• UK must maintain its world class R&D and manufacturing capability.

[Note: in here, I hoped to find an indication about Talisman being retained. It would be endlessly stupid to once more throw away the route clearance capability. For 20 or more years, the British Army has been dealing with mines and then IEDs, across Serbia all the way to Iraq and Afghanistan. It sunk huge amounts of money on studies and development and acquisition of several clearance systems, then quickly junked them, only to restart again from scratch in the following mission abroad. PLEASE, don’t let Talisman be the next one system developed, used, junked and then soon afterwards missed.]

Vehicles
• Those vehicles used to provide Equipment Support must have mobility and protection matched to those
that they are supporting. [So? Husky, Coyote, Foxhound to stay…?]
• Future fleet requirements must enable units to train as they fight as opposed to wholesale conversion to type prior to deployment.
Dismounted Close Combat
• A coherent assessment of night operating capability is required.
ISTAR / Base ISTAR
• Need for an integrating hub for all ISTAR collect assets.
• Provision of robust Full Motion Video capable Information Support Service, separate from Base
ISTAR infrastructure should be investigated in order to support contingent operations.
There is an enduring requirement for a layered ISTAR mix ranging from heavy to light and including a capable aerostat. [Good news for Project Outpost, meant to preserve for the future some of the Cortez BASE-ISTAR system used to provide security for FOBs in Afghanistan. It includes 5 PGSS aerostats bought from the US]
• Provision of simulation in support of ISTAR training.
• ISTAR Specialists must be made available for Level 3 Collective Training activities, and above.
Aviation
• Enhanced Defensive Aid Suites are fundamental for the use of aviation, particularly as the future airspace is likely to be increasingly contested.
Training
• The investment in training in support of current operations, and its clear benefits, has been hard earned and must be retained
• Tactics Techniques and Procedures (TTPs) that have evolved during HERRICK (and which will have utility in
future operating environments) need to be hard wired into training and Tactical Doctrine.
Next Steps:
• Output has informed Army 2020 and will be used to inform MoD and Army capability balance of investment decisions.
• Study continues on this theme in 2012.


The Aerostat used by Cortez is the Persistent Ground Surveillance System (PGSS) (25,000 ft3) is an helium-filled tethered blimp that can raise a payload of up to 150 pounds to 1,200-2,000 feet and remain aloft for up to two weeks.  The mainstay PGSS payload is a (98 pound) L-3 Wescam MX-15 EO/IR sensor, but the turret can accommodate most any payload or payload combination of up to 150 pounds.  PGSS has carried various acoustic (shot/mortar identication) sensors and a SIGINT payload could be another option as well.

The coverage offered by the PGSS with the MX-15 EO/IR payload is as follows: it can detect a vehicle at 18km; identify a vehicle at 12km; detect a man at 12km; identify a man at 4km. It is filled with Helium in around one hour, and can stay in the air for a couple of weeks. While up in altitude, the aerostat resists to 60 knots winds, and can be launched with 20 knots. The mooring station of the aerostat weights some 16.000 lbs, but work has been made to try and make it helicopter-portable for easing future deployments.

These were procured from the US, but apparently the UK has been leading the way on a smaller, far more deployable kind of floating surveillance device, the HeliKite, which combines features of kites and aerostats and comes in a far smaller and easier to manage package that can be used to keep up in the air surveillance sensors or even communication relay systems. These HeliKites are produced in the UK, by the already mentioned company, ALLSOPP HELIKITES. Now this is more an example of what I call innovative thinking.



These are the highlights from Agile Warrior 2012. I find very, very little to hail as innovative, imaginative, or particularly reassuring, apart from the fact that Cortez kit should be safe, along with quite a lot of other UOR material.
Then again, judging from the IX group, last year mandated as priority and now described as an option at best (and one to avoid if possible, probably due to the manpower capping at 82.000 regulars), Agile Warrior 2013 could again cut back on ambitions.

I appreciate the effort the Army is making, and I recognize the challenges it is facing. But Agile Warrior so far has been absolutely unimpressive. And I have the feeling that it is not doing much to actually inform decisions.
It seems more like it justifies them once they are taken.