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Sunday, October 10, 2021

Time for courage

 

The British Army is expected to reveal more details about its future plans sometime “in the autumn”, which in theory means sometime soon. The internal work to define the way forward is known as Project EMBANKMENT and is meant to put meat on the bones of the Future Soldier announcement that came together with the Defence Command Paper.

The Army’s Future Soldier position at the time was articulated as follows:

 

       An additional £3bn will be invested in new Army equipment over the next ten years on top of the £20bn already planned.

[NOTE: we have to assume it is part of this money that has been used to announce the GMLRS upgrade and new munitions, at 250 million, and the Mobile Fires Platform, replacement for AS90 and part of the L118s, at “over” 800 million. Both these projects already existed before, but clearly they didn’t have any funding line before the Review. The 120 million investment in the RANGER regiment, the planned 2023 purchases of new mini UAVs to replace Desert Hawk III and of new C-UAS weapons; plus plans for CAMM ER to beef up ground based air defence are probably all funded from this pot. “Over” 200 million have also been promised to beef up Electronic Warfare capabilities.]

 

       By 2025 the Army will be 72,500 regular and 30,100 reserve personnel.

       There will be no loss of cap badges and no redundancies of Regular soldiers.

       The Army will continue to recruit in large numbers the diverse talent that it needs to maintain a competitive advantage now and in the future.  

       1 MERCIAN and 2 MERCIAN will be merged.  In time they will form one of the new Boxer-mounted battalions in the new structure.

[NOTE: 1 MERCIAN was earlier planned to be a WARRIOR-mounted battalion. With WARRIOR going out of service and a lot of garage and barracks space, sometimes literally newly built, becoming available in Tidworth and Bulford, we have to assume earlier plans for BOXER battalions will be completely torn apart. There is little to no sense in putting BOXER in Catterick, as once planned, when Salisbury Plain is now “empty”.)

 

       A new Army Special Operations Brigade based around a new Ranger Regiment able to operate in high threat environments to train, advise and accompany partners.  This will be initially seeded from the current Specialised Infantry Battalions: 1 SCOTS, 2 PWRR, 2 LANCS and 4 RIFLES.

 

       A new Security Force Assistance Brigade to complement the Army Special Operations Brigade, operating in lower threat environments, routinely deployed across the globe to develop the capacity of partners and allies.

[NOTE: effectively this means turning another 4 battalions into Specialised Infantry. One of them will probably be 3 GURKHA RIFLES, which was being built up as 5th of the Specialised units when the new Army plan appeared]

 

       2 YORKS will become a new prototype warfighting and experimentation battalion. [This has now happened, with 2 YORKS, while based in Cyprus, busy testing new equipments including Dismounted Situational Awareness tablets; Robotic Platoon Vehicles and the new Assault Rifle In-line Low Light Sight, ARILLS]


Clipped on in front of the Day sight, the ARILLS "fuses" thermal imagery and image intensification for maximum performance at night and in all low light conditions. 

       The Infantry will be reorganised into four Divisions of Infantry with a more balanced number of battalions and offering a wider range of infantry roles. 

[Each infantry division will be aligned to one of the RANGER battalions and, presumably, one of the Specialised battalions as well. Each infantry division will probably get 1 mechanised battalion as well, so each division can offer a wide range of opportunities to new recruits]

 

       The Army will reorganise into Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs), including permanently assigned supporting elements like artillery, engineers, electronic warfare, cyber and UAS.  

 

Plans to upgrade GMLRS, reactivate some of the ones in reserve (44 launchers will be upgraded, compared to 35 now in use) and acquire new, long range and more advanced munitions is extremely welcome, but much of this was supposed to be funded already before the Review. 

       A very-high-readiness Global Response Force of 16 Air Assault Brigade and the newly formed 1st Aviation Brigade, which will be ready to respond from humanitarian relief through to crisis response and warfighting.

[The British armed forces have a formidable array of capabilities needed to build and sustain an excellent air mobile brigade: 8 C-17, 22 A-400M, 60 Chinook, 50 Apache helicopters, a new Medium Lift Helicopter to come, plus Wildcat. It’s a shame it took years to notice. The formation of the Aviation brigade was a much welcome step and further refinement of the combined capabilities of the two brigades would deliver a truly excellent tool. On the other hand, the loss of C-130J is regrettable, as it reduces the airlift capability. It’s very much contradictory to cut cargo aircraft while expanding the role of the air mobile force, but coherence in UK defence planning has never been a factor...]

 

       The Land Industrial Strategy will strengthen our partnerships with industry to unlock and rapidly exploit the potential of innovation and spiral development, delivering the kit we need when we need it, as part of the Army’s contribution to UK prosperity.

 

In terms of timelines, the Future Soldier briefing noted:

 

       The Army will use spring and early summer 2021 to refine and test the designs, capabilities and structure below BCT-level. It will plan carefully to maximise the potential of limited resources, particularly key equipment.

        This work will be presented to the Army Board in late June 21.

       The MOD Reserve Forces 30 review will be published in May 21. 

       Detailed programming and balanced decisions about the optimum resourcing and sequencing of this institutional change will follow, enabling CGS to issue orders to the Army in early autumn.


In terms of Force Structure, the Future Soldier plan as published at the time of the Defence Command Paper was as unimaginative as they come. The "new" Army linearly fell from a planned 4 mechanized brigades (2 armoured, 2 STRIKE) to just 2 mechanized Brigade Combat Teams, ugly and inevitable hybrids pieced together with the surviving pieces of Armoured Bdes (Challenger 3) and STRIKE (AJAX, which was originally meant for Armour anyway; and BOXER).

1 Cavalry regiment with AJAX, 1 tank regiment, 2 infantry battalions on BOXER. If this plan will be confirmed, it couldn’t possibly be any more foregone than it already is. You lose WARRIOR, you end up here. That's literally it. I was writing about it back in February

The only "innovation" at the time was the attempt to turn 1st Artillery Brigade into a 3rd manoeuvre bde by putting the 2 "orphaned" AJAX regiments into it, alongside GMLRS but without infantry. The Army calls this formation Deep Recce Strike Brigade Combat Team. This is not new per se, but it's new to see it as an organic, permanent formation: the Deep Strike Recce BCT is, really, the comfortable choice that lets the British Army hang on a couple of Cavalry regiments otherwise at risk, while adopting a familiar, reassuring mix that was used in Op GRANBY in 1991, grouping 16/5 Lancers with 32 and 39 Heavy regts RA as Divisional Artillery Group. What is old is new again.

The other 2 manoeuvre brigades were inevitably downgraded to Light BCTs, with the assumption that one would be Lightly Mechanized thanks to the use of FOXHOUND. Apparently, even in the middle of this disaster, the Army remains uninterested in hanging on to MASTIFF and RIDGEBACK, and we really should ask ourselves why, especially since these vehicles have received a quick, painless, cheap but important mobility upgrade and have been sent to Mali where they have an important role.

 

At a macro level, the new organization is purely born out of despair and can’t have taken more than 5 minutes to design. Literally.

Where innovation is supposed to happen is at lower level, and we have to hope that the Army will be bold enough to truly change its ways, and go back to the drawing board in regard to the organization of the brigades. 

The british BCT is described as a formation which

 

“will be structured to integrate capabilities at the lowest appropriate level with supporting capabilities routinely assigned including artillery, Un-crewed Aerial Systems, cyber, air defence, engineers, signals and logistic support. This will create more self-sufficient tactical units with the capacity to work with partners across government, allies and industry.”

 

The internal brief insists: “A Land force structured to integrate capabilities at the lowest appropriate level creating more self-sufficient points of presence”.

 

 

This is perfectly in tune with assumptions about the future that have been in Army thinking for several years now. The Integrated Operating Concept 2025 has notoriously listed the necessary attributes of the future force as:

 

Have smaller and faster capabilities to avoid detection

Trade reduced physical protection for increased mobility

Rely more heavily on low-observable and stealth technologies

Depend increasingly on electronic warfare and passive deception measures to gain and maintain information advantage

Include a mix of crewed, uncrewed and autonomous platforms

Be integrated into ever more sophisticated networks of systems through a combat cloud that makes best use of data

Have an open systems architecture that enables the rapid incorporation of new capability

Be markedly less dependent on fossil fuels

Employ non-line-of-sight fires to exploit the advantages we gain from information advantage

Emphasize the non-lethal disabling of enemy capabilities, thereby increasing the range of political and strategic options

 

The Army’s own Conceptual Force 2035 doubles down on the same kind of design drivers. This study imagined an army of 3 smaller but capable divisions made of lighter, faster, more deployable, largely independent battlegroups, with dispersion being the norm. Conceptual Force 2035 specifies that the disaggregated fighting requires Combined Arms capabilities to be organic at lower level, to ensure the dispersed Battlegroups do not have to wait for a superior echelon to make supports available. This includes having more organic Indirect Fire capability and employing it alongside greater ATGW capability to offset the capability currently delivered by MBTs through “lighter” vehicles.

The BGs will be expected to carry out, and I quote, deeper, more risky and aggressive manoeuvre. Robotic, sacrificial systems will be used to press on reconnaissance, and I quote again, to the point of destruction, in order to enable the BG to use frenetic op-tempo to make up for the lack of mass.

The resulting BGs would be around 500-strong but are supposed to match the current mission set of a 1250-strong armoured BG though the use of robotics and higher op-tempo. The Conceptual Force imagined that, from the then objective force of around 82.000 regulars, the British Army would be able to form some 48 such Combined Arms battlegroups. The organization would work to the Rule of 4, with an Assault Force, Covering Force, Echelon Force and Reserve Force. These BGs would be grouped in Brigades with enough CS and CSS elements to fight, again, largely independently from the Division level.

 

Conceptual Force 2035's key points


We can agree or disagree with the assumptions above, but there is no denying that, at a conceptual and doctrinal level, the scenario has been set. This is the future force that the Army thinks is needed in the future.

Now the real question is whether the Army has any appetite to reorganize its Force Structure accordingly, and let go of some old, deeply ingrained tribalism that has been allowed to put up all sorts of avoidable problems.

The examples that could be made when referring to that “tribalism” are many, at all levels, but my favourites  are always the same because they perfectly illustrate the avoidable stupidity that permeates the British Army’s structure.

First example: when “battlegrouping”, Cavalry / Tank squadrons or demi-squadrons are mixed with companies of infantry. A battlegroup based on an Infantry Battalion comes with the very significant advantage of having a Fire Support Company with mortars, snipers and anti-tank platoons. A BG based on a tank formation does not get a Fire Support Coy, because Tank regiments don’t have them. The AJAX regiments organized as “Medium Armour” formations, mirroring Tank regiments, would also not have had one. The cavalry regiments have anti-tank capability in their Guided Weapons Troop, but normally have no mortars. One of the “innovations” that the Household Cavalry Regiment was (is?) pursuing as part of STRIKE and of its transition to AJAX, is the creation of a mortar troop.

This, for me, is tribalism. That in this age of warfare we are still looking at these baby steps is insanity.

The use of UAVs is also very stovepiped, with 32 Regiment Royal Artillery holding the Mini-UAS capability and parcelling it out upon battlegrouping. This frankly won’t do in the future. Capability must spread out across formations and go down the ladder of formation size; combined arms must be the norm, not the on-deployment mixing of today.

 

If the Army is to move in any way closer to its own Concept Force 2035 ambition, it needs to find the courage to gut its current, increasingly nonsensical structure, mix Infantry & Cavalry and redistribute capabilities with no deference to capbadges and outdated Corps separations, creating Permanent Combined Arms Battlegroups.

 

Such a radical reform is no longer avoidable, since the Army is trying to modernize in the context of a regular manpower cap moving down from a theoretical, never-achieved 82,000 to 72,500 by 2025.

The regular Army is going to be smaller, and positions will be lost, and units will need to change. In particular, the Infantry is bound to take a hit, simply because Combat Support and Combat Service Support formations have already been cut back so much that most of the Army’s brigades are make-believe formations comprising only infantry, with no artillery, communications, engineering or logistics.

1st Division's brigades, with the exception of one which gets some supports on rotation, are next to useless paper bags containing infantry battalions to parcel out in the never ending quest to rob Peter so that Paul can be outfitted in a decent way for deployment.

This has to change. The Army will continue to drown in its own chaos otherwise.

 

While BOXER is an excellent base vehicle, it is not a complete, coherent capability unless the right mix of variants is achieved, and the equipment fit is decent. At the moment, the British Army's equipment fit plans are dismal, with, for example, the mortar carrier being literally just an APC carrying a L16 81mm mortar that will only be able to fire once dismounted. Same for the Observation Post Vehicle, which at the moment is not planned to be equipped with its own sensors and target marker to enable target designation from under armour. Key variants are missing entirely; others could now be a duplication (Engineer Section Vehicle and the ARGUS vehicle of the Ajax family seem to be in open conflict now that only 2 brigades remain), the number of infantry carriers is ridiculously small, firepower on the vehicles is absysmal. Change is urgently needed. 


As the reveal date for Embankment draws nearer, the leaks to the press have begun, with the Daily Mail writing about incoming reductions to the Infantry, which is said to be destined to shrink from 16,500 to 11,000. Apparently, the Rifles regiment didn’t take well to the news and promptly leaked the internal memo to the press. Either the leaker or, more likely, the Daily Mail itself, have also immediately felt the need to point out that the plan will be “overseen by the new Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. The evil Royal Navy is already out to get the Army’s scalp, seems to be the narrative that we will be force-fed over the coming months.

The fact that the Admiral is not yet in post, and that Embankment is the Army’s own plan formulated over the last several months is, naturally, a detail of no importance: never let facts get in the way of a good tale!

 

The reduction in the Infantry numbers is not and cannot possibly be a surprise to anyone who read the Defence Command Paper and Future Soldier brochure. Where did people think that the manpower reduction would hit? On the last few enablers left to ensure that the Army can scrape together 4 brigades somewhat deployable?

It was inevitably going to come to this.

And if the Army was to finally pursue its own imagined Future Combat Team, around 500 strong, it would again be inevitable that Infantry numbers would be further affected.

It was all always under our eyes.

 

The impact on the Infantry’s effectiveness is the only thing that isn’t yet clear. Some reductions will be pretty much automatic since mechanized battalions are larger than Light Role formations. As WARRIOR disappears and only 4 Mechanized battalions remain, a few hundred posts will disappear naturally. Several hundred more will vanish as 4 (or rather 3, assuming 3 GURKHA RIFLES carries on) battalions are cut down from 500/600 to 250-or so to form the new Security Force Assistance Brigade.

2 MERCIAN effectively disappears with the merging into 1 MERCIAN, accounting for several hundred more. And the rest will have to be shaved off with some other change to the structure of the remaining Battalions. 

Unfortunately the Army has once more tied its hands up by insisting that no capbadge will be lost and that no other battalions will disband, so this inexorably means every remaining battalion will get smaller.

How, and with what “capability compensation”, is the only question that remains on the table.

 

Army 2020, in 2011, attempted to absorb the manpower cut by removing a Platoon from every Rifle Company in every Light Role battalion. This proved unworkable, so a whole Company was removed instead, with the assumption that the hole would be filled by a formed company of reservists from the paired Reserve battalion.

This arrangement on paper makes a lot of sense in what is supposed to be a fully integrated force of Regulars and Reservists, but unfortunately proved unworkable because the availability of reservists is, understandably, not very good and not very predictable. 

The number of times the Reserve has been able to deploy a formed Company probably fits on the fingers of one hand. I can think of 4 PARA deploying one to the Falklands, and a case in Cyprus. 

Day to day efficiency of the regular battalions was badly impaired, as was their ability to train. It became normal to put together companies of two battalions to make one, which obviously defeats the point of keeping so many tiny battalions in the first place. 

Eventually, in 2015, the missing companies were rebuilt, redistributing the manpower obtained by inventing the Specialised Infantry battalions and downsizing them to just around 250 personnel.

But this time, manpower cannot just move around. It will be shed for good.

And there are just two ways in which this can happen:

-       The Stupid, Capbadge-driven way: insist in holding on to Infantry battalions more or less as they are, and go back to the (failed) Army 2020 model. This is unfortunately highly likely to happen, if recent Army history is any indication.

-       The Conceptual Force 2035 way: remove the artificial separations between Infantry, Cavalry, Armour, etcetera, and build up permanent, Combined Arms Battlegroups which will probably have the equivalent of just 2 Infantry companies, again, but will at least be designed from the ground up to include armour-support, UAVs, Robotic vehicles when they eventually happen, and beefed-up organic Fires. 

 

The most common counter-argument deployed against Permanent battlegrouping is that, supposedly, maintaining the separation of roles enables each component to pursue excellence in its field, and battlegrouping only for deployment safeguards “flexibility”.

Personally, I think this is an extraordinarily weak argument. It could be countered in all sorts of ways, but i once again will go back to the example made earlier: keeping the specialties separated results in incomplete battlegroups simply because, to make one example, the Cavalry absurdly does not have mortars.

The separation only enables and sometimes mandates the proliferation of capability gaps that require ever more “robbing Peter to pay Paul”: a stupefying number  of separate formations sending bits and pieces to one another to build something that actually works.

 

I don’t see a single genuinely good reason why we should continue to keep separate formations that will never deploy on operations without being broken apart and reassembled in combined arms battlegroups.

All too often, when looking back to operations, the post-action analysis contains the passage “the units in the battlegroup had only been together for a short time and didn’t know each other enough”, or similar remarks. Lieutenant M. Dewis, on TANK 2020 (volume 102, No 801) makes a series of recommendations to try and save the Regimental system while enabling the creation of effective Combined Arms Teams.

He stops short of advocating for permanent overarching formations, but he underlines the need for broader, more stable affiliations and more cross-training. At the same time he can’t help but note that Battlegroup level training is expensive and an increasingly rare commodity at a time in which it is more desperately needed than ever. It’s all good to insist on social networking and “forming and storming” by “intruding” in each other’s low level training events as much as possible, and simulation and tabletop wargames obviously help, but I don’t think half-measures are adequate. Certainly not in the context of a further shrinking Army.

The Army’s Conceptual Force 2035 is clear in its working assumption that the future is the combined arms Future Combat Team. It is time for the Army to move in that direction in a serious way, if it believes its own innovative thinking. There is absolutely no rational reason to claim that more self-sufficient formations wouldn’t be flexible and able to cooperate and re-ORBAT as necessary.

 

The Army insists that “the future battlefield will be different. It will be harder to hide and weapons will destroy with greater accuracy, range and precision. People will retain their centrality in the battle of wills, while robots and UAVs will increasingly reduce the number of people engaged in the front line. Legacy capabilities are becoming obsolete ever more rapidly”. 

To counter that, the Army says it needs faster, agile, well integrated, combined arms formations able to aggregate and disaggregate across a vast battlefield.

If this is the assumption, act on it.

 

The attributes of the Future Combat Team are the key to the whole concept: if you want to fight dispersed and be lighter but still capable, you must pack a serious punch and have far more capability pushed down the levels of command. This is something that in STRIKE was never done in any meaningful way. Firepower has been dead last in the list of priorities so far, and that made the whole thing not credible.

In fact, what is most striking about the Conceptual Force 2035 is that it is so entirely alien to what the British Army actually looks like today, in structure, “culture” and programmes. Permanent Combined Arms Battlegroups are anathema in today’s British Army and among the purists of capbadges and specialty separations. CS and CSS are a scarce resource completely out of balance with the number of infantry battalions. Indirect Fires and ATGWs are weaknesses, not strengths. The Rule of 4 is nowhere to be seen, and indeed resources in multiple areas are spread so thin than even the Rule of 3 is dubious, with infantry battalions that could literally shed a rifle company soon.

 

British Army armour leaving BATUS. The end of an era, happening largely behind curtains of shame-induced silence. 


Embankment is an opportunity for change. The reduction to regular manpower margins will be painful, there is no way to deny it will be. Trying to absorb the reduction while hanging on to 31 battalions will only make the pain worse and result in 31 ever more unusable formations.

It is time to be courageous, and end the tribalism and the excuses.

 

Change is desperately and urgently needed in equipment plans as well: AJAX and BOXER purchases as currently planned, in consequence of the disappearance of WARRIOR, no longer integrate each other. BOXER variants mix and equipment fit must change to lessen the devastating impact of losing WARRIOR. For a wider discussion about this aspect, see: http://ukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-good-bad-and-ugly-of-boxer-purchase.html

and

http://ukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot.com/2021/05/combined-arms-regiments-on-way-to.html

 

In the Global Response Force, investment is needed to ensure 16 Air Assault acquires organic vehicle mobility to complement the helicopter mobility. Light, Chinook-portable vehicles would enable the PARAs to manoeuvre quickly out of a landing zone, allowing the helicopter to drop troops off further away from a target and thus hopefully away from enemy air defences.

In terms of organisation, there is obvious scope for a greater integration of the all-important Chinook force into the Aviation Brigade. Since the Chinook is RAF-owned and operated, it is currently not an integral part of the brigade and, moreover, the Squadrons are not equipped with the same wealth of organic life support on the ground. At the moment, APACHE and Wildcat squadrons can operate on the battlefield in a way that Chinook cannot replicate, being more tied to well established airbases. This difference is unhelpful at best, and would need correcting.

There is also obvious scope for rationalising the current separated bits and pieces of ground support units: the current 7 REME, 132 Sqn Royal Logistic Corps, Tactical Supply Wing and Joint Helicopter Support Squadron could and should be re-organized to cut down duplication and maximize the number of complete task lines covering everything from ammunitioning, fueling, equipment maintenance and Landing Zone management.

It seems also obvious that 244 Signal Squadron, the one unit tasked with providing communications to the Joint Helicopter Command, really belongs organically into the Aviation Brigade.

They are not big changes, and in several cases they would probably generate efficiencies and savings, but they will require the cancellation of some redundant HQs and the removal of barriers between Army and RAF and between RLC, REME and Royal Signals.

 

The barrier between Royal Logistic Corps and REME might indeed be brought down more or less completely. There have been suggestions that the Army might be headed towards integrated Close Support Regiments, possibly including also the medical capability.

Defence already has one such integrated regiment, the Commando Logistic Regiment of 3 Commando Brigade, although this is admittedly a somewhat special case as the Royal Marines have the intimate support of ship-borne assets and stores. 

However, the STRIKE Brigades were also going to have a CSS battalion obtained by merging a RLC formation with a REME one. There’s a possibility that this integration will now become a target army-wide. There are resistances, but such integration is the norm in multiple allied armies, including the US, and it’s increasingly difficult to claim the British Army cannot adapt.

 

Change will also be needed in wider strategy and purpose as Forward Basing is finally embraced beyond the persistent presence of Specialised Infantry Companies.

Lieutenant General Chris Tickell, Deputy CGS, revealed at DSEI what the Army is doing to increase its responsiveness in key regions of the world. The BATUS training area in Canada has been quietly “robbed” of its large, permanent fleet of armoured vehicles, which have been brought back from February this year. Some 112 vehicles between Challenger tanks, AS90 guns, Warriors and “T2” (Titan bridgelayers and Trojan AVRE of the Royal Engineers) have been moved out and are heading towards Sennelager, in Germany, which will act both as the de-facto main training area for the mechanized force, and a Forward Base which will be better able to project heavy forces towards Eastern Europe.

The Omani-British Joint Training Area near Duqm, which we have been promised will be “tripled in size” with additional investment, will become the other main training ground for british mechanized forces. Units will deploy to Oman for “Khanjer Oman” exercises and will remain for a few months, rather than just for the duration of the exercise. In so doing, they will become a Forward Based force to complement the afloat Littoral Response Group (South) that the Royal Navy and Marines will base at Duqm from 2023.

The BATUK training area in Kenya, similarly, will see light / air assault battlegroups spending 2-3 months at a time in the area, rather than weeks as currently happen for the “Askari Storm” exercises.

BATUS, de facto, is no more. Although it is not closing down entirely, its era appears to have ended, and it would have deserved a more dignified goodbye, but the Army, MOD and Government presumably don’t like admitting that there just aren’t enough armoured vehicles left to sustain a training fleet based in Canada.

Training fleets in Sennelager and Oman can be realistically “double-hatted” as rapidly deployable, forward based forces. An armoured battlegroup stuck in the Canadian prairie cannot. At the end of the day, this is the one explanation for the move.

 

BATUS was notable for its absence in the graphics about Forward Presence. There was a reason for it, as has since become apparent. 

But given the premises, it is the right move, for once. I encourage the Army to insist on this path, and invest on it, and work closely together with the Royal Marines so that the Oman-based contingent is closely integrated with the LRG(S) and with its ships, that are the key element to enable the forward based force to move quickly across a theatre which is dominated by the sea.

 

What is still missing from the picture is an Army formation equipped and trained with the High North in mind. As the UK reinforces its strategic commitment to Norway and the wider Arctic, and makes the Littoral Response Group (North) one of the two main prongs of its international engagement strategy, there is obvious scope for the Army to provide a heavier force to back-up the afloat Royal Marines component.

 

It’s an obvious step to synchronize the Army with the Nation’s strategy.

But it will take courage.

27 comments:

  1. This is another comprehensive article with much to discuss. Much has been discussed before. The British Army is deaf to such discussions but we should not give up.

    One small suggestion is to disperse the battalion mortar platoon as a mortar section in each rifle/mechanised company. When a company is assigned to a battle group led by an armoured regiment, the mortars go too.

    This loses a mortar platoon commander and arguably the battalion specialist skill leader. But, the specialist skill is in the specialist weapons school.

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    1. In Armies less hesitant in fielding firepower it would be normal to have 81mm mortars at Coy level AND 120 mm at a higher level...

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    2. The British Army is not going to get 120 mm mortars. That is discussion, but can we agree that the 81 mm mortars should be at company level?

      Delete
  2. Always welcome your articles, but, the conclusion is always depressing. Not your fault the army has arrived at such a procurment mess and the headcount of 72,500, I fear, is only a stop-over to an even smaller number, as the promise of future 'firepower' in forms of uncrewed, AI, et al systems seduces but never delivers.

    A simple queston though relating to 'cap badge mafia', with the need for more CS & CSS units, and clearly an inevitable reduction in infantry, why-o-why cant a forward thinking regiment like the Rifles, not convert one of their battalions to a logistics unit, or a signals, or indeed combat engineers. Yes, I know not straight forward, but would offer a solution to several questions.

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    1. Unfortunately, yes, it gets depressing. I no longer write that often, in fact, in part exactly because of how depressing it can get.
      I tried my best to warn the Army over the last 5+ years, at least.

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  3. At last, a comprehensive update outlining the MESS the army is in.
    The BATUS situation, while unfortunate, actually makes a great deal of sense.
    I await the details of future ORBAT with trepidation and great interest.
    I don't think they will have the bottle to go through with it properly. The new CDS is already being briefed against!!

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    Replies
    1. I am certainly very, very curious to see if the Army manages to find some real courage. As soon as more becomes known, i'll certainly want to talk about it.

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  4. Hi Gabriele,
    Very interesting article. Thank you.
    Of course we have to wait for the report,
    And what is going to happen Ajax.
    Some points I would like to make.
    1. I think the extra 3 BN will in fact will mean nothing much,
    As most of it has already been allocated, or will be spent on minor stuff.
    2. The infantry down to about 11,000, yes, that sounds about right.
    30 Bns (including both Gurkha),
    4 ‘ranger’, 4 training, (250).
    6 Foxhound strength. (350).
    4 mechanized, 2 airborne, 10 light role. (650),
    3. Cut some battalions, yes, Irish and Welsh guards and 3 Para. (All under strength units).
    Buy 2 manikins and put them in those little sheds outside the Palace.
    Transfer 2 Para to SF support group.
    With the infantry down to 11,000, The SAS are going to be even smaller.
    3. Combined units. I support armoured cavalry regiments.
    A mixture of MBT. Recce and troop carriers. In a single unit.
    Unfortunately, the troop carrier would have to be an Ajax variant.
    4. Infantry Battalions are pretty good units, the can have,
    Mortars, Anti tank. and RECCE. If this could be improved on,
    And anti air and a better signals added,
    This could provide a good fast deployable independent force.
    4. Why no mention of Mastiff? Is the army hopeful they are going to get something else? I think they hope in vain.
    5. I think all are suggestions are better then the army comes up with.
    Unfortunately it all falls on deaf ears.
    Sad about BATUS, no more live firing for armoured battle groups.
    Regards Phil
    (The ex pongo)

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    Replies
    1. If they allow new air defence, EW, and key artillery programs to finally move, the 3 billions will have been clutch, actually...! But yes, we can't expect truly "new" stuff to appear. Some of these requirements have been in the Equipment Plan for years.
      Still, got to take what positives there are...!

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  5. wonderful and depressing, that about sums up your articles, Daniele, when you discuss army organisation. wonderful but depresssing. Since, as you point out, probably the main bone of contention in the Army ever being able to grow out of its old skin and metamorphose into the modern killing machine it should and could be (I love the more aggressive stance and tactics set out in the new doctrine, about time) is cap badges, so here's a suggestion:

    As the army (in an ideal world) realises that combined arms warfare requires dedicated mixed units, not ad hoc salades put together for temporary duties, and as it elaborates further on other novel formations, perhaps cap badges could be simply associated with company-sized units. So an MBT squadron in an armoured battlegroup might take the cap of an entire regiment, and so on. If cap badges were chosen with tact and an eye for synergies past and present, the powerful bonding and tradition bearing aspects of caps would be maintained, but the debilitating contractions required to keep up the pretence of regiments would disappear. In fact, maybe well conceived synergies/compositions of caps could in fact engender a new type of esprit de corps, where mutual benefits that different unit types carry to the battlegroup form the matrix for building links between disparate troop types.

    Moreover, something like this already exists, it seems to me, in the Royal Artillery, with its named batteries. why not a similar undertaking army-wide? And, given that there would be a far greater number of companies/squadrons than regiments, this even holds out the possibility of multiplying capbadges - yes, more badges, just not inconvenient 'regimental' ones. we might be able to resucitate the tradition in this way of a whole host of glorious former formations.

    Thanks for all your research. Great read as usual. But depressing.

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    1. Oh, i think there would be ways to actually bring back some regimental badges and identities which would deserve it.

      If each combined arms formation was given regimental dignity, the armoured component could count as a battalion, and same the infantry component.
      If one wanted, there would be ways to make it work.

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    2. Unknown, this is GABRIELE's article, and website. I only post on UKDJ. I have much the same views as Gabriele, though.
      Daniele

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    3. Hi, sorry, both Gabriele and Daniele. Early onset altsheimers, I guess! So all thanks for the article to Gabriele. And thanks for putting me straight, Daniele.
      Lee

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    4. I have been working on an orbat on exactly those lines, with company-sized units based on traditional cap-badges, composed into combined arms regiment/group-sized battlegroups based on "large regiment" cap badges. My BGs are bigger than the 2035 concept, around 1,200 strong, with 4 inf companies and 2 armoured squadrons. A brigade would combine 2-4 of these BGs with similar-sized CS and CSS groups, also made up of companies from several cap badges. Similar to the US BCT, but an echelon down. It's the only realistic way the British Army can adopt the modular approach.

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    5. I have been suggesting a similar structure on a Canadian forum. Example:

      1 Scots (Highland) Battle Group
      - Battalion Headquarters (Royal Regiment of Scotland cap badge)
      - Headquarters Company & REME LAD
      - A Rifle Company, Black Watch
      - B Rifle Company, Royal Scots
      - C Rifle Company, Highlanders
      - D Rifle Company, Highland Light Infantry
      - Support Company, Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders
      - 1 Squadron, Royal Scots Dragoon Guards
      - Artillery Battery, 19th RA (Highland Gunners)
      - Engineer Squadron

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  6. Great analysis from Gabriele.

    Its essentially what you get with no ambition, too little money,wasting what money you had, no strategic context, and a historic tendency to alternating losing coin wars with developing an outgunned successor to the Bren gun carrier and cruiser tank model.

    Its strategically illiterate.

    It manages to support on going counter terror operations in friendly states. But not too many, and with little capability to respond more , sustainably, if the good guys are being overwhelmed , or you need to try some nation building where it might succeed.

    It also might provide some capability for the fast looming potential war with Iran. Allies might need some ability to deal with raids. But we would have to leave defending against land invasion a la 1990 to others and airpower.And we would need substantially better air and missile defences

    Equally if we look at the other major scenarios for major war.we could manage a token force to Korea, and if we have any sense aviid any land war with China.

    But whats proposed doesnt meet the need to play a significant role in NATO at all.. You are not going to hide from Russian firepower, or stop any assault by it with fewer tanks than Finland and a few ATGW and Cummingsisms. Nor is there going to be much use for great C3I or any number of Cs and Is, and ability to locate the enemy - when its coming down the few roads in the Baltic states straight at you, in regimental strength, supported by Russian scales of artillery firepower.A model based on locating Taliban , and using airpower, and small scale precision GMRLS fire, to neutralise them isn't going to work against Russian divisions steaming over you, or flying over you.You need tanks, and a lot more firepower at least until NATO airpower becomes more available.

    This isnt rocket science. We know what that threat looks like after 2014 and watching Russian prcurement . The response looks like the German, Polish and Ukrainian response. The smaller ,frontline, allies have infantry - they need firepower.We even know where the key areas to defend are -preventing an initial incursion, retaining the land bridge to the Baltic States dealing with any offensive through Belrus and engaging Kaliningrad. All require long ranged firepower and anti armour, armour and adequate airdefence.

    Strategically, NATO Defense is all about escalation control and posing unacceptable risks to the attacker.Realistically short ranged conventional missiles dont do this - the geograhy is bigger than it looks on small maps - which is why the US army is going for very long ranged options. And those need in turn to be backed by a theatre nuclear deterrent to Iskander - or you get the threat back that you cant match and deter..

    You could argue for either providing the conventional missile and air power NATO lacks. And/or restoring the theatre nuclear backing to NATO we provided pre 1998. Or you could take the option that fits Treasury funding - and decide to do nothing and leave European Defence to allies. But doing nothing, or providing a few tanks, infantry in Boxers with mgs, Ajax if it survives, and not much else, that ultimately leaves Americans asking why they are providing the nuclear, long ranged conventional, air defence, and tank force themselves when we can't be bothered to buy any capability or base it in Poland alongside US forces.. It doesnt deter threats or impress allies , or US taxpayers.


    And

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    1. Much of what you say is absolutely true of high-intensity armoured maneuvre warfare on an eastern front, but it misses one glaringly obvious, and painful, point: we really don't have any skin left in this game, whatever the defence command paper suggests, and given the state of current Army procurement. I think maintaining a viable armoured warfare component would have been worthwhile, but that train left the station in 2010 and it isn't coming back. So instead of pretending that we can play on that field, maybe it's just time to find a new way to fight with different hardware, and/or different, complimentary roles. The new doctrine is in principle, if not yet in fact, a step in that direction, despite the large number of question marks hanging over the concepts. The Polish are taking their end of the game seriously, and it's time for Germany to step up to the plate.
      Lee

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  7. that train left the station in 2010

    and the army have been waiting on the platform ever since.
    They tried to order a taxi, the self deploying strike brigade, but that didn't arrive. The children were bored and daddy bought some ASCOD skate boards. The children called them Ajax and played at taxi drivers loading them up with all the baggage. They didn't go anywhere like that. Daddy, make it work. But daddy has retired to the pub.

    So, the army decides to build a new train - well half new. Challenger 3 and heavily protected but lightly armed Boxer carriages. The contracts are signed but how does this train hold together and where does it go?

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    1. Thank you Gabriele for allowing this bit of fun. I finished with some serious questions - where does the heavy armour go? The CR3 buy makes it clear it will fight other heavy armour. Boxer has heavy armour but the HMG in this context is light. There really needs to be an army proposal (we could make one or more) for putting these together. Task oriented battle groups when needed are not sufficient because the time is not available to form the group in a fast moving battle.

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    2. Excellent! And the real situation really does feel just as surreal. I'm not arguing that MBTs and all the associated hardware, that armoured warfare in short is dead and we should simply move on for that reason. I mean rather that dreams of being competative in that arena are dead for "us". During the good old days of the Cold war, US strategists planned aggressive offensive operations on the provision of 15% casualty rates daily. So even with Challenger 3 and, gulp, some suitable alternative to warrior, the numbers literally simply do not stack up. Such a British force, as envisaged, simply could not cope with the attrition rates that can be expected on the modern battlefield. I think it would be different if the Army (and more, the government) decided that our game was the armoured maneuvre game, and resourced our forces accordingly. But that is not the fact. within 5 days of high-intensity combat, based on 40 year old metrics, Army forces as envisaged would have simply ceased to be meaningful units. Guy de Maupassant used a beautiful in Boule de Suife when talking about French units fighting the Prussion in the 1870s: they were simply "ground to powder". CR3 will give us about a 100 ears of corn, and in I fear that they will quickly become simply grist to the mill. And then what? So, either go in big, or go in through another door.

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  8. The Army web page for 11th Security Force Assistance Brigade says the brigade has four regular battalions. The location map shows just Coldstream Guards and Irish Guards which were in the predecessor 11th Infantry Brigade. These 2 units rotate in and out of ceremonial public duties with Grenadier Guards and Welsh Guards. It looks like public duties battalions will also be structured for security force assistance.

    Scots Guards do not take part in public duties, except for F Company, and should be unaffected.

    The 3rd regular battalion in 11th Infantry Brigade was Royal Irish. The 4th security force assistance battalion should be the new 3 Gurkha Rifles.

    Royal Irish use Foxhound and may be allocated to a light mechanised formation, leaving 11th Security Force Assistance Brigade looking for a replacement. I am looking at another Gurkha battalion, conveniently located in the Brigade home area SE England. Also, the Brigade is responsible for British Forces Brunei with the other Gurkha battalion.

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    1. Interesting thing you've spotted there, thank you.

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    2. Guards & Gurkhas have not gone the way I guessed.

      Only the Irish Guards are security force assistance and they do not rotate to ceremonial public duties (PD). Grenadier Guards, Coldstream Guards, and Welsh Guards are light and PD on rotation. Only 1 battalion is shown currently PD, it used to be 2. There is also the London Regiment reserve. PD Incremental Companies are not mentioned. PD Teams are to be established at Wellington Barracks.

      1 RGR are light then rotate to Brunei. However when 2 RGR come back from Brunei they go to Air Assault. 3 RGR look to me like Gurkha ARRC Support Battalion but have a logistics and force protection role.

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    3. Not quite, the ARRC Support Battalion is a recent development separated from what was going to be 3 RGR; it looks like 3 RGR vanishes as a unit but its manpower will go into 4 Ranger Battalion, and Gurkhas, alongside Rifles, will continue to feed 4 Ranger long term.

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  9. The Armed Forces Quarterly Personnel Statistics published today show the army full time trade trained strength dropped slightly from 77,820 at 1st July to 77,530 at 1st October. That's not much towards achieving the Future Soldier 73,000 strength.

    The Army People Plan, scheduled to be published early 2022, will look at how the Army's workforce can be re-sized. Until then, it seems recruiting is still working to the old plan for 82,000 strength.

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  10. I like the idea of Square Battle Groups with half an Armoured Inf Bde and Quarter of the Deep Strike Brigade each for 3 Div. I like your proposal for the Joint Services in 1 Div, with 3 Commando and deeper links with RN and RFA, but fear the UK is still not ready for it sadly!

    Personally I would be ready to buy Puma or Lynx in both Cavalry and Infantry configs, and equip every Armoured inf and Arm Cav Regt in 3 Div except the two tank Regts. Boxer can fit out the rest. Britain has pretended for long enough that it can make AFVs, its time to pack up the charade and actually get the vehicles we need

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  11. Frankly, if the Ukraine situation goes kinetic we can tear up all recent defence reviews and official future Army papers. We will be back with the old threat in an improved strategic position, probably angry and making threats.

    This will be a strategic problem even if Putin stops with deploying armour , Iskanders and S400s in Belarus. That threatens land links to the Baltics and Poland. If Putin goes for the maximum we are going to have Russian tanks on the borders of another 3 NATO members. Only Poland has a large armed forces.

    Someone in NATO is going to have to protect those borders.Its not going to be the US alone. And those borders will be subject to more threats , as Putin riles at sanctions or the Ukrainian resistance, or any initial moves to shore NATO defences up.

    This is going to be difficult as procurement takes too long and recruitment is problematic.Indeed its going to be more difficult than it was in 1938 when things could be changed drastically by 1940 - 42. But unless the 10 or 15 year , no wars anticipated in this time period, rule survives even aftrr the bloodiest war in Europe has happened, its going to have to be done.

    And the things that need doing asap are well known. Boxers with machine guns and a few Javelins wont worry the 1st GTA, token numbers of new longer ranged specialist missiles wont either. We at least need to modernise all our tanks and not limit our options to another arbitary cash budget. And if we need to sacrifice distant capability to get what need in the short term we should -waiting for Ajax to work and arrive isnt now a priority. And we might do well to widen our procurement net to get things quicker. Domestic systems could be bought or fast tracked but Israel and S Korea seem to already have some of the sort of tech we need, and produce it faster.

    But its not only the Army that needs some rapid hole filling by borrowing from the US, or buying asap. The RAF is lacking most of its striking force since Camerons cuts.The Typhoon force cant cover 360 degree threats to the Uk. The available force just isnt big enough for all the targets from armour to airbases and missile sites that would need to be hit. Speeding up F35 procurement may be difficult but we must set higher objective numbers at least now. Putin isnt impressed by carriers with 8 fighters and an airforce with only 42 total planned so far. The RN is better off, but needs proposed increases in ship and sub numbers asap, and shorter term needs those missing missiles and stocks.


    The instinct of the Treasury will remain to do nothing. And we could face our 1938 equivalent and pretend business as usual will do,

    But we cant rely on just the nuclear deterrent to deter everything. Especially as we foolishly, unlike the French disposed of the theatre nuclear force which is there to respond in a limited way , without using the strategic force which is there to deter attack on the home base and its cities.Becoming the only nuclear power globally with only one nuclear basing and delivery system was a decision that had no strategic logic which is why no one else has done it,

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