tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post1793319152671665250..comments2024-02-29T11:45:01.870+01:00Comments on UK Armed Forces Commentary: The day of announcementsGabrielehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-90854556836597418642011-08-04T18:55:03.670+02:002011-08-04T18:55:03.670+02:00187 F22, indeed. But it is not a cut of these days...187 F22, indeed. But it is not a cut of these days, it is already "old". Production line was ordered to be closed after 187 airplanes. <br /><br />If you listen to all rumors and opinions, everything is either easy to afford or unaffordable. <br />The UK has every interest to go down the F35 route due to massive ensured industry revenues, but of course, the F35 is quite expensive. Not as much as people imply, as it is, really, kind of in line with the cost of all other modern fighters in the end. Problem is that it was promised to cost 40 or 50 million dollars, while now it can easily cost 120 to 150...! <br />The unrealistic figure was always going to be the first one... <br /><br />And interestingly, the F35 borns as the "low specification" type: the F22 was intended as "High end" F15 replacement, while the F35 had to be the "F16" of the situation, merry, cheap everything-doing workhorse to complement the numbers of the F22. <br /><br />Problem is that over 1000 F15s were built, including F15E, against just 187 F22s, and the F35 is also far more expensive than it had been hoped.Gabrielehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-51797069672480792392011-08-04T13:30:26.703+02:002011-08-04T13:30:26.703+02:00Thanks Gabriele.
I see the F22 programme was stop...Thanks Gabriele.<br /><br />I see the F22 programme was stopped at less than 200 aircraft. I also heard that that the F35 programme was "unaffordable," as the cost per aircraft was to high.<br />As the cost of aircraft goes ever higher, do you think the next generation of fighter aircraft is going to be one high specification type and one low specification type? With european air forces having a few high spec aircraft, with the bulk of they sqn's having a low spec aircraft.I can't see anyone being able to build a high spec multi role fighter other than the US in the future, but a could a low spec aircraft be built by someone like India?<br /><br />Regards<br />PhilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-13268736350623693722011-08-03T22:00:23.638+02:002011-08-03T22:00:23.638+02:00Officially, the 138 F35 figure still stands.
A sl...Officially, the 138 F35 figure still stands. <br />A slightly more realistic long-term ambition was expressed post SDSR by Bagwll (RAF's Group 2 commander) in "around 100". <br />An ideal plan, which i believe is the sole realistic target (economically realistic and militarily realistic, as having less would greatly reduce the usefulness of having them at all) is for 80 planes, with 4 squadrons of 12 planes each. <br /><br />For now there's no firm indication on the orders. According to the latest (but still now outdated, since it is dated November 2009) F35 production plan the UK could get 36 planes by 2020, 80 by 2023, with orders of production planes starting in 2013. <br />"Around 40" with "a single large squadron with around 20 planes, combining Frontline and OCU role by 2020" was also a figure which circled post SDSR, which you might have heard and remember, so it would overall fit. Bagwell talked of such a scenario as well. <br /><br />By the recent words of the RN Admiral that leads the Carrier Strike project at the hearing a few days ago, it emerged that the operational fleet in 2020 will count 18 planes, with 6 expected to start featuring regularly on the carrier, with progressive work-up towards 12. <br />18 is roughly compatible with what Bagwell said in 2010, about a single squadron of around 20 planes, including OCU Flight. <br />18 planes, with 6 operational, leaves 12 for OCU work, training the pilots for the expansion of the force. <br /><br />The UK is late for changing the first 2 of its test planes: they will be F35B, and it is unlikely that this can be changed. Luckily, they will still do to train deck handlers (very similar sizes and arrangements), maintenance crew, and for studying avionics and such. <br /><br />The third F35B, if current negotiations are succesful, will go to the US Marines in exchange for an F35C. <br /><br />The F35B is on a two-years probation. By the end of 2012/13 it must meet its development targets and demonstrate it is viable, or it'll be cancelled. <br />The US Marines continue to bet heavily on it, though, and understandably since it is going to be the only option for arming with fixed wing jets their LHAs. A one-horse race that would hurt the Marines badly if the one horse died before arriving... <br /><br />The F35 numbers for the US could be lowered some due to cuts to the budget, but the programme appears safe. <br /><br />So far, the cost of going Cats is 950 million pounds, which are being reserved for the conversion of the carrier. <br />This is balanced by a 1 billion programme cancellation, as the RAF, getting the F35C, has seen satiated its requirement for Deep and Persistent Attack Capability. <br />The F35C through-life cost is projected as 25% lower than that of F35B as well, further making the switch attractive. Unitary cost is also expected to be lower. <br /><br />Loss rate, i don't know. In the 60s it was quite damn high, but these days losses are rare. I think the French since the Rafale navale introduction have lost only one, for example, and not for cats/traps problems but for an engine failure. <br />I would say that the loss rate should be reasonably comparable to that of land based planes, these days. <br /><br />I hope i answered to your questions. I await anxiously for more details on the F35 purchase plan... hopefully the equipment procurement plan announced for September will contain some valid indication. <br /><br />GabrieleGabrielehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-5138772432792164812011-08-03T21:09:05.588+02:002011-08-03T21:09:05.588+02:00Hi Gabriele,
A few questions about the F35.
I as...Hi Gabriele,<br /><br />A few questions about the F35.<br /><br />I assume Dr Fox is in the US ordering a number of F35’s, any ideal how many?<br />Will the US Marines buy those 3 F35’s we don’t want (wrong version).<br />I did read that this version was going to be cancelled by congress, but I have just read the US Marines are still keen to go ahead, test flying the other day?<br />What’s the cost saving of going for cats and traps and the US Navy version of F35, as opposed to US Marines version of the F35?<br />As it looks like the US defence are going to suffer some big cuts, what looks at risk, the F35 programme itself?<br />Landing using cats and traps are more risky, what's loss rate of aircraft?<br /><br />Sorry, I couldn't seem post this on the F35 article<br /><br />Regards<br />PhilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-91166421136256622852011-07-28T22:10:25.082+02:002011-07-28T22:10:25.082+02:00Yeah, i do sense it, to say the least...!Yeah, i do sense it, to say the least...!Gabrielehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-72368596839998765552011-07-28T18:28:27.409+02:002011-07-28T18:28:27.409+02:00Hi Gabriele,
Thanks for your comments.
I think y...Hi Gabriele,<br /><br />Thanks for your comments.<br /><br />I think your right, it's to early to tell yet what battalions will go.<br /><br />I can see the smaller Regiments being forced into larger ones, as The Rifles, and Scottish Regiment have been. I think there must be fewer regiments if they cut 6 battalions. There are still a couple that have not formed, "the large regiments", as instructed. I think the army wants infantry regiments to have a minimum of 3 regular battalions, which to me makes sense.<br /><br />As for the guards, they have many powerful friends, but even they may not escape this time. I can see one large Guards Regiment, maybe 3 or 4 battalions, the 1st battalion being The Coldstream, 2nd The Grenadiers, etc. Which would bring them into line with the rest of the infantry. However the Household units seem to have a guardian angel were defence cuts are concerned, so I wouldn't bet on it!<br /><br />Do you sense I am not a fan of the Guards? ;-)<br /><br />Regards<br />PhilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-52242827114384589142011-07-26T21:12:54.700+02:002011-07-26T21:12:54.700+02:00I believe the MOD denied any plan for additional e...I believe the MOD denied any plan for additional early cuts. The 10.000 announced reduction is officially intended to take place after 2015. <br />So it shouldn't actually happen for now. But in the case, yes: it would be part of the work for following the plan outlined in the announcements of Liam Fox. <br /><br />I've also noticed on the press that the rumors about the destiny of this battalion or that one are already coming up. <br />The Argyll and Southerland Higlanders and the 4 SCOTS The Higlanders might both be turned into TA battalions or closed down, and i even saw rumors of closure for the Coldstream Guards, which i regard as extremely unlikely, as it would be a truly shocking thing to announce due to what such regiment represents historically... <br /><br />I don't want to follow the rumors too much, though, as they are often wild speculation, and they would just sadden and confuse me. <br />Some battalion will go, that's for sure, but i'll wait until things are a bit more secure before worrying about this or that formation. <br /><br />Thanks again for following my rants on here, and for commenting. <br />GabrieleGabrielehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-57077747295001051192011-07-26T20:44:35.066+02:002011-07-26T20:44:35.066+02:00Hi Gabriele,
Seen this in the press; "a prop...Hi Gabriele,<br /><br />Seen this in the press; "a proposal revealed in a leaked memo to officers from Gen Sir Peter Wall, Chief of the General Staff. According to Gen Wall, an extra 5,000 soldiers face losing their jobs, in addition to the 7,000 redundancies already announced. As he put it, “we must assume that these reductions will require the further removal of formed battalions and regiments from the force structure, including the combat arm"<br /><br />Any comment, is this the army moving on the last weeks statement already?<br /><br />Regards<br />PhilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-55144207401825900902011-07-22T20:26:41.961+02:002011-07-22T20:26:41.961+02:00I think C-RAM would be a reg job.
The only thing...I think C-RAM would be a reg job. <br /><br />The only thing I can think of is that it would 'accept' more trades; the extra police and others could be part of the sqn, it would give them a formed unit to come under.<br /><br />That's the only thing that I can think of. The thing is most of the sqn's are in name only, hugely undermanned, and there fore are only able to add indviduals or form very small formed units.Topmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-19982372867230138772011-07-22T19:10:31.762+02:002011-07-22T19:10:31.762+02:00It might mean that the Squadrons will have a role ...It might mean that the Squadrons will have a role in Cyberwarfare in addition to a Force Protection role, or it might even have to do with collaborating with the RA on a C-RAM system. The SDSR mandates one as part of FF2020, after all. <br /><br />But indeed, it is not clear.Gabrielehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-60507910365433774942011-07-22T19:05:48.977+02:002011-07-22T19:05:48.977+02:00Any idea as to what they mean by 'Hybrid' ...Any idea as to what they mean by 'Hybrid' Sqn means, with regards to RauxAF There's nothing in the report, a merging of which trades?Topmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-7517617032040587772011-07-21T19:54:38.419+02:002011-07-21T19:54:38.419+02:00Thank you for coming over and for reading, and con...Thank you for coming over and for reading, and congratulations for your past service, too. <br />There's no need to thank me, anyway: my love story with the british armed forces is long, and by now years-old. I'm the italian once-kid who's always dreamed to be a Spitfire pilot, even if now ironically my pro-aircraft carrier position gains me lot of accuses of being a PTT slave and a RAF hater and all that... <br />But anyway. The point is that it is a pleasure for me to stay informed about the armed forces... the blog is also, for me, a diary in which i "save" the new info i manage to dig up during the day. Sharing is only an added pleasure to it all. <br /><br />As to your questions. Well, 60 Typhoons will be in frontline sqns, plus 6 in 17th Sqn (OEU) and 12 more in 29th Sqn, the fleet's OCU. That makes the "flying fleet" 78 planes out of 107, which means 29 spare/rotational airframes. <br />A bit high, but the RAF has always worked on these lines in modern time. They rotate airframes in and out of reserve to try and make them all age "fairly", so to stretch the fleet's useful life longer. <br /><br />I don't think there will be cuts in the Armored Regiments, not in the regular ones, at least: despite the uplift in spending in the Reserve, the TA armoured battalions might be scaled back/amalgamated/given new roles, as there will be a lot less Challengers around. <br /><br />In the Army section here on the site you can see my assessment of the 40% cut in MBTs. I believe the holding prior to cut was 345 tanks, so i think around 207 tanks should remain... which (hopefully) should limit the cut to the return from 2 Type 58 and 3 Type 44 regiments to a force of 5 x Type 38 regiments. <br />In a Type 38, two tanks would be in the HQ and 36 in 4 Sqns, so it would be less of a dramatic change. <br /><br />As to the Formation RECCE, i don't think there's any appetite for cutting more historical names than strictly necessary, and the regiments will survive. I also think to remember that the SDSR document contained a quite unmistakable indication of MRBs each with their own Tank and Recce regiments. <br /><br />The structure of the Brigade Reconnaissance Regiment, however, is not set in stone. I believe 3 Sqns of FRES Scout will remain the plan (some 270 Scouts are expected to be ordered) while there might be additions shaped from the Afghan experience, so perhaps a "Light" Sqn on Jackal, and sniper troops, Forward Air Attack Controllers and other specialists. <br /><br />I hope at some point there will be a clear plan announced: there was a parliamentary answer some time ago who said that the cut to the Challenger and AS90 fleets were "complete", but as far as i'm aware no one has explained, yet, what does it exactly mean: what's the new official structure of the regiments and batteries? What will be done with the retired vehicles? <br />I wish they could finally let us know, really. <br /><br />GabrieleGabrielehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-61142958995305990132011-07-21T18:32:04.191+02:002011-07-21T18:32:04.191+02:00Hi Gabriele,
I am an ex British infantry soldier, ...Hi Gabriele,<br />I am an ex British infantry soldier, and I take a keen interest in things military.<br />You site has told me more, than any other that I can find on the UK armed forces present and future. So thank you for that.<br />Somthing I don't understand, why when there will be 107 typhoons, is there only to be 5 operational Sqns? (60 airtcraft?).<br />Do you think there will be any cuts to the number of armoured regiments? They say 2 per brigade, 1 MBT and 1 Recce, as there is only likly to be 2 Sqns of MBT per MBT role Regt, won't the remaining Sqn's be Recce role anyway?<br />A whole Regt of 3/4 Recce role Sqn's seems ovekill for one brigade?<br /><br />PhilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-56617078736789180572011-07-21T09:05:32.038+02:002011-07-21T09:05:32.038+02:00Thank you for wandering over, Phil, i'm glad y...Thank you for wandering over, Phil, i'm glad you like the site, i try to keep it updated timely whenever i can. <br /><br />My thinking is that each MRB will have 1 Armored, 1 Mechanized, 2 Light Role Infantry battalions. <br /><br />So 20 Battalions of various nature indeed. <br />4 Battalions in 3rd Commando Brigade (3 Commandos, 1 Army-amphibious) <br />1 PARA - Special Forces Support/16 AA<br />2 PARA Battalions + 2 Air Mobile infantry in 16AA <br />1 Battalion in Brunei <br />2 Battalions in Public Duty/Light Role <br />2 Light Role battalions as Regular Reserve <br /><br />Army: down from current 37 to 30 Battalions. <br />Navy: 3 Commandos groups confirmed <br />RAF Regiment: Sqns confirmed but with two of the Royal Auxiliary Air Force Regiment Sqns becoming "multi-role" as stated in the Reserves review. <br /><br />As for the Puma upgrade, the first upgraded Puma HC2 has flown, but Liam Fox did not specifically confirm the programme. <br />I believe it should be safe, but just like with FRES SV, the details will probably be known only in the Equipment programme report coming out in September, for which i'm anxiously waiting. http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/06/24/358794/paris-eurocopter-flies-upgraded-puma-for-raf.html<br /><br />The programme for the Puma update has been meeting some hostility, not just from me, but from military and parliamentary members which see little sense in spending as high as 14 million pound on old airframes just to give them roughly 10 more years of service, especially since you can only improve the Puma so much... <br />There was who favored, all along, a smaller buy of new airframes instead, and i've been a supporter of this for a long time. <br /><br />Anyway, better Puma than nothing. The upgrade should go ahead, i believe... but it is on the list of the easy cuts if it can't be fit into the budget. We'll have to wait September to have clear ideas of the situation. <br /><br />Thanks for coming over, and for commenting! <br /><br />GabrieleGabrielehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01623558391676151582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-442909239199162925.post-26577169281971104592011-07-20T21:00:50.995+02:002011-07-20T21:00:50.995+02:00Hi Gabriele,
Great article, and great site.
In res...Hi Gabriele,<br />Great article, and great site.<br />In respect of the regular infantry battalion's, I assume that you think; 5 4 battalion bridages, (20 bns), 4 battalions in 3 commando, and 16 Air assault brigades,(8 bns), 2 in Cyprus, 2 on Public duties, and 1 in Brunei. So 39 down to 33 (Including the 3 RM Cdo Bn's).<br />On another note, Puma upgrade programme? Shelved?<br /><br />PhilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com